Trashfire Ethan Oliver Ralph's Powerchat Donations - ITZ CALLED A CONTRIBUTION RAND!!!1!

[thebigdream]

Doesn’t matter how much money powerchat logs say Ralph made, it was much less. It’s a proven fact that you can change “test” to a person’s name or anonymous or anything you want. Nobody should be measuring their worth by what a person with delusions of grandeur pretends to have. The truth is, Ralph has no tangible proof that he’s ever made more than an average fry cook at a McDonalds. No home, no paid off vehicles, no education, no credit, no family, etc. He’s not only financially but also morally and spiritually bankrupt. Doesn’t get much lower than that.

Yeah I wish people would treat the numbers with a little more skepticism. There is nothing about Ralph's lifestyle that indicates that he makes anywhere near the amount stated. If he had that much money, he'd be wasting it on far more expensive crap and gayer clothes, yet as it stands, his idea of a splurge involves travelling to Europe via budget airlines and buying a $300 hat. Even living in Mexico, he's arguing with Pantsu over Harry fucking Potter. Something doesn't add up even when you account for how bad he is with money. If he was ballin you would expect to see so many more impulse purchases.

 

[SpergioLeonne]

You're thinking purely in terms of linear regression and ANOVA, not the general definition of the word.

To put it simply, I expect the donations to cluster in the middle, a pattern of sorts. Maybe the beginning and end, some whaling. That's what I meant. If he very consistently gets a large amount at the beginning or end, that could indicate some kind of automation, or fuckery.

There's going to be patterns no matter what, I want to explore it. You can call this autism. Mathematically, we've got a massive dataset. Look up covariance, there's gonna be some kind of spurious relationship even if there shouldn't be.

Now do the 2020 election

 

[Buster Scruggs]

He genuinely wasted all the money on being nigger rich, drugs (and hookers) included that he now devolved into trying to be spic wealthy instead. I fully expect him to waste even more money on man purses and sunglasses as a way to cope and prove to the a-lawgs and the horse that he's not a broke bitch, while still neglecting Meigh's Harry Potter addiction and his own daughter.

 

[LaurenLauren]

You're thinking purely in terms of linear regression and ANOVA, not the general definition of the word.

To put it simply, I expect the donations to cluster in the middle, a pattern of sorts. Maybe the beginning and end, some whaling. That's what I meant. If he very consistently gets a large amount at the beginning or end, that could indicate some kind of automation, or fuckery.

There's going to be patterns no matter what, I want to explore it. You can call this autism. Mathematically, we've got a massive dataset. Look up covariance, there's gonna be some kind of spurious relationship even if there shouldn't be.

But the middle of what? Bro, once again what are the variables that you want to check for correlation and why are you expecting the correlation?

I mean I could see that it would be reasonable to study things like empirical distribution of size of the donations (log normal maybe?? but i really don't have a clue here), or the distribution of the daily number of donos (should be Poisson), or the time between the donos (should be exponential).
if you would not be able to fit a reasonable distribution to any of them, then maybe that would suggest some type of fuckery.

 

[AltisticRight]

But the middle of what? Bro, once again what are the variables that you want to check for correlation and why are you expecting the correlation?

I mean I could see that it would be reasonable to study things like empirical distribution of size of the donations (log normal maybe?? but i really don't have a clue here), or the distribution of the daily number of donos (should be Poisson), or the time between the donos (should be exponential).
if you would not be able to fit a reasonable distribution to any of them, then maybe that would suggest some type of fuckery.

Log normal wouldn't be much use, we only have these variables:
Date (year-month-day)
Time (24 hours, one hour increments)
Donations (1 and 0 binary)
Amount
Message type (useless)
Message (useless)
Platform (meaningless)

I want to see this:
A scatterplot and residue diagram of...
Donation and time
Haven't decided on time yet, I'm thinking about per day in hour increments for the duration of the stream.
Then compare all these plots.

This should make a lot more sense now.
Fitting all the donations to a distribution is probably not possible and it will be quite meaningless to me. My guess is Poisson or binomial.

 

[Mr E. Grifter]

Yeah I'm not saying anything about his living conditions, just trying to estimate exactly how much of that dono money actually makes it into his hands.

My biggest question after doing the estimate, however, has to be "where did the money go?"

Harry Morris tweeted about this the other day. He said the money was real, but that Ralph spent it like it was going out of fashion.

In terms of money spent, I think his main vice is gambling - as to why... Yes, he abuses drugs and alcohol, but I doubt you could spend $100k on this - well you could, but I doubt he runs in the circles where the quality of the drugs he gets are in this ball park. In addition, his personal affects, vehicle, and house are not expensive, and not commensurate with his earnings. He refuses to pay most of his loans, so it isn't this either.

Gambling is a perfect explanation, if you gamble then unless you win then you've nothing to show for it. You can lose huge amounts of money in no time at all, and despite what Ralph says there is a reason sportsbooks remain in business - the vast majority of gamblers lose, and as a result they win. Ralph isn't especially knowledgeable or intelligent.

So how I see it is, he hits payday, spends like he's a baller with no care in the world, maybe gambles too much the first two weekends of the month and then lives hand to mouth after that. Like most people who can't keep within their means, he will have set up things so his outgoings go out on payday and hey if he fucks up, just get a payday loan to tithe himself over. It means, no savings, never spends on things looking ahead - like Rozy, and remember he only bought their buggy out of fucking spite for Harry, not because it was a good idea for the child. This also explains why he didn't buy that game for May, he probably could but it would leave them short - i.e he's broke as a mfer, as he's blown through 10k in two weeks.

... But he earns lots so he's winning guys.

Edit, post from Harry about Ethan Ralph's finances:

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/ethan-oliver-ralph-vs-harry-morris.140997/post-14791038

I will add a further two cents, I think this gives Harry a lot of credibility - it lines up with what Ralph has been seen almost perfectly. HMo is unexpectedly a great resource for Gunt watchers.

 

[SargonF00t]

Harry Morris tweeted about this the other day. He said the money was real, but that Ralph spent it like it was going out of fashion.

In terms of money spent, I think his main vice is gambling - as to why... Yes, he abuses drugs and alcohol, but I doubt you could spend $100k on this - well you could, but I doubt he runs in the circles where the quality of the drugs he gets are in this ball park. In addition, his personal affects, vehicle, and house are not expensive, and not commensurate with his earnings. He refuses to pay most of his loans, so it isn't this either.

Gambling is a perfect explanation, if you gamble then unless you win then you've nothing to show for it. You can lose huge amounts of money in no time at all, and despite what Ralph says there is a reason sportsbooks remain in business - the vast majority of gamblers lose, and as a result they win. Ralph isn't especially knowledgeable or intelligent.

So how I see it is, he hits payday, spends like he's a baller with no care in the world, maybe gambles too much the first two weekends of the month and then lives hand to mouth after that. Like most people who can't keep within their means, he will have set up things so his outgoings go out on payday and hey if he fucks up, just get a payday loan to tithe himself over. It means, no savings, never spends on things looking ahead - like Rozy, and remember he only bought their buggy out of fucking spite for Harry, not because it was a good idea for the child. This also explains why he didn't buy that game for May, he probably could but it would leave them short - i.e he's broke as a mfer, as he's blown through 10k in two weeks.

... But he earns lots so he's winning guys.

Finally someone states the obvious, for all those who can't believe Ralph has made as much as the leaks suggest.

With gambling, Ralph could easily lose twice as much as he supposedly earned.

 

[Mr E. Grifter]

Finally someone states the obvious, for all those who can't believe Ralph has made as much as the leaks suggest.

With gambling, Ralph could easily lose twice as much as he supposedly earned.

Not to toot my own horn, but I said at the time of Harry tweeting that I thought Ralph made about $100k a year, after factoring a guess at the Powerchat cut and taxes. Which from what I have heard is not that far off.

I remember this specifically because in the US it's not THAT much I would be making less but in the same ballpark as Ralph, in the equivalent role from my country. I'm pretty well off, but wouldn't describe my income as astronomical or anything like that.

That said, the US is richer than my country by a fair amount - so to be expected.

He earns something similar to a upper-tier manager, or a highly skilled worker. According to data that's like top 20% of household incomes. It's not THAT much, but nothing to sniff at, all the people on here saying that it's not a good income are coping, trolling or living on the moon.

With that said, it's largely irrelevant since he spends it like he's got a week to live. Retard could be living in a large house in Texas, in a gated community to prevent him being harassed. Yet he thought it best to not pay his student loans or outstanding debts to fix his credit rating - which he can patently afford - and to gamble - problem gambling is also flagged up as bad on your credit rating... - so now he can't get loans. He also can't save for shit, without irony if I was Ralph I'd probably have a cool $400k or so squirreled away and I would just buy a fucking house.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

Not to toot my own horn, but I said at the time of Harry tweeting that I thought Ralph made about $100k a year, after factoring a guess at the Powerchat cut and taxes. Which from what I have heard is not that far off.

I remember this specifically because in the US it's not THAT much I would be making less but in the same ballpark as Ralph, in the equivalent role from my country. I'm pretty well off, but wouldn't describe my income as astronomical or anything like that.

That said, the US is richer than my country by a fair amount - so to be expected.

He earns something similar to a upper-tier manager, or a highly skilled worker. According to data that's like top 20% of household incomes. It's not THAT much, but nothing to sniff at, all the people on here saying that it's not a good income are coping, trolling or living on the moon.

With that said, it's largely irrelevant since he spends it like he's got a week to live. Retard could be living in a large house in Texas, in a gated community to prevent him being harassed. Yet he thought it best to not pay his student loans or outstanding debts to fix his credit rating - which he can patently afford - and to gamble - problem gambling is also flagged up as bad on your credit rating... - so now he can't get loans. He also can't save for shit, without irony if I was Ralph I'd probably have a cool $400k or so squirreled away and I would just buy a fucking house.

It really depends where you choose to live in the US. You can live like a king on $100k/yr in places where literally 50 miles away you'd be barely scraping by in a studio apartment.

 

[Mr E. Grifter]

It really depends where you choose to live in the US. You can live like a king on $100k/yr in places where literally 50 miles away you'd be barely scraping by in a studio apartment.

Oh for sure, the US is a fairly unequal country. For instance, the average wage is $100k a year but the median is $60k. It's huge incomes at the top which drag that average up so much, which is crazy given Ralph is in the hope 20% yet he's the "average".

The thing is, Ralph's income can be generated from fucking anywhere. If he didn't fuck his life up by being a retard, there are so many places in the US with low crime, good transport connections and reasonable cost of living that he could have settled down in. Instead, he's acted like a retard so this great income of his gets to go on court fees, drugs, alcohol and the next dopamine hit from gambling.

He is quite literally the stereotype of someone the alt-right would describe as "low time preference".

I don't care how much you earn, if you have the spending habits of a BPD whore then you're a loser.

 

[LaurenLauren]

Log normal wouldn't be much use, we only have these variables:
Date (year-month-day)
Time (24 hours, one hour increments)
Donations (1 and 0 binary)
Amount
Message type (useless)
Message (useless)
Platform (meaningless)

I want to see this:
A scatterplot and residue diagram of...
Donation and time
Haven't decided on time yet, I'm thinking about per day in hour increments for the duration of the stream.
Then compare all these plots.

This should make a lot more sense now.
Fitting all the donations to a distribution is probably not possible and it will be quite meaningless to me. My guess is Poisson or binomial.

The idea of lognormal came from the fact, that probably there should be some multiplicative process there: a paypig sees that another paypig has donated and so he tries one up them by donating more. If we would aggregate the donation amours per day, and then rank them, the empirical cdf of them should look like a cdf of a lognormal distirbution (if my idea about multiplicative paypig spergery is correct ).
The time format unfortunately prevents us from having a data for waiting time between donos, so that sucks. But i think that the number of daily (or hourly, but I would bet on daily) should follow a Poisson distribution. As funny as negative binomial would be ( you could interpretate the p from the Bernoulli process as measure of a mental toughness of an average paypig), I have a problem with how to treat the stopping time here.
As for the scatter plot, I think some weir discrapencies would be seen if you would be nicely vissable from daily/hourly the ratio of size to number of donos. If the nigga is faking large donos there should be regular spikes there (I think).

 

[Capt. Jean Luc Ritard]

In a fit of extreme coping, Ralph has scoured this entire thread to find the two posts that equate to "oh wow Ralph isn't actually under the poverty line" and posted screenshots of them to his telegram as the ultimate own.

 

[Lorne Armstrong]

In a fit of extreme coping, Ralph has scoured this entire thread to find the two posts that equate to "oh wow Ralph isn't actually under the poverty line" and posted screenshots of them to his telegram as the ultimate own.

And people thought that Gunt aborted from Twitter would mean no more content.

 

[MirnaMinkoff]

Yeah I wish people would treat the numbers with a little more skepticism. There is nothing about Ralph's lifestyle that indicates that he makes anywhere near the amount stated. If he had that much money, he'd be wasting it on far more expensive crap and gayer clothes, yet as it stands, his idea of a splurge involves travelling to Europe via budget airlines and buying a $300 hat. Even living in Mexico, he's arguing with Pantsu over Harry fucking Potter. Something doesn't add up even when you account for how bad he is with money. If he was ballin you would expect to see so many more impulse purchases.

I agree that powerchat logs are a sketchy estimate but Ralph is also white trash stupid and paying the price of being a tax and debt dodger. You know how they say it's very expensive to be poor in the USA? It's true and Ralph has to exist as a poor person, even if he's pulling in thousands in charity, because he has barred all his ability to access financial resources due to not paying debts, being a shyster or not paying taxes. He has to have low-limit, pre-paid credit cards. God only knows what bank account he managed to get access too get his tips donations, maybe Pantsu's, but the legit ones wouldn't touch him. If you sent Ralph a check he'd have to go to a check cashing place.

Ralph could never get a mortgage. Banks won't even look at you without a few years of tax returns showing your income, if you lie on your taxes to try and keep more money the bank laughs and says "lol no, you poor" and tells you to fuck off. Ralph's credit score is probably about 400 making him untouchable and he ripped through Pantsu's decent credit score with his typical white trash antics so they are really fucked. He is really stuck in Mexico because out side of homeless shelters and weekly hotels/Booking.com Ralph can't even get a fucking lease in the USA, nobody would touch him.

The truly mind blowing part is Ralph has better income years ago when he had almost no expense. Ralph lived rent free with mom until he was 35 years old. Any non-retard should have had enough to cash purchase a house free and clear at that point, but instead Ralph was desperately trying to sell the house his daddy gave him to pawn store level companies just to get his hands on $15k. It's beyond pathetic. Ronnie's crack shack was probably the only home he ever had a prayer of owning in his lifetime and he gave it away for peanuts.

Whatever Ralph does beg from his streams is pretty quickly blown on booze, food, drugs and gambling leaving him living like white trash even in Mexico. He basically lives just like a typical welfare case that gets their check daily instead of monthly.

 

[HackerX]

You're thinking purely in terms of linear regression and ANOVA, not the general definition of the word.

To put it simply, I expect the donations to cluster in the middle, a pattern of sorts. Maybe the beginning and end, some whaling. That's what I meant. If he very consistently gets a large amount at the beginning or end, that could indicate some kind of automation, or fuckery.

There's going to be patterns no matter what, I want to explore it. You can call this autism. Mathematically, we've got a massive dataset. Look up covariance, there's gonna be some kind of spurious relationship even if there shouldn't be.

Only on the KF can you read a thread and have several math autists chart and graph how much of a retard Ralph is through quantification alone. I eagerly anticipate the findings.

 

[Balldo's Gate]

For real, he wasn't hacked nor was he phished. He literally gave out his password in the most retarded way I have ever seen. What an absolute moron of a man.

I'm going to give you a bit of a pass on this because based on your posts today, I'm going to guess that growing up you were educated less on the finer points of foreign law and more on what your mother would do for 50 złoty.

But Ralph was "hacked", by you, by your own admission. Here's a citation from a US federal court:

Allowing consent procured by known mistake to serve as a defense would seriously impair the statute's operation. A hacker could use someone else's password to break into a mail server and then claim the server "authorized" his access. Congress surely did not intend to exempt such intrusions—indeed, they seem the paradigm of what it sought to prohibit. Cf. Morris, 928 F.2d at 510 (access gained by guessing someone else's password is not "authorization" under the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act).

You hacked Ralph's shit because you're still butthurt from when he called out your slatternly mother half a decade ago and the only thing you proved was that Ralph is raking in FAR more than anyone thought possible. I assumed I was being extraordinarily generous when I thought Ralph was grossing $75-80k in genuine donations annually and it turned out the real number is over double that. The data you posted make Ralph look so good that if Ralph posted it himself, people would assume it was fabricated. You did him a service by single-handedly driving a stake through the heart of the "fake donos" meme.

What a massive self-own by you.

No wonder you're on antidepressants.

 

[TV's Adam West]

Ralph may make more than most farmers, but most farmers don't have a revenge porn conviction.

 

[Cucktry Roads]

To the moralfags in here:

 

[Phony Chicken]

To the moralfags in here:
View attachment 4543642

So swatting is ok?

 

[snootsnootsnoot]

To the moralfags in here:
View attachment 4543642

I really wish you retards would fuck off. The entire point of the fucking website is to not touch the retards. When the retards start hollering, screaming at you to touch them, why do you take that as an invitation to touch them? There is zero benefit to yourself or anyone on this forum if you touch them. They will continue to fuck themselves up if you do not touch them. Touching them will only validate their hatred of you and everyone here because of you touching them. There is nothing you can do by touching them that you cannot do by not touching them. It says at the top of the fucking subforum that there is no point in touching them.

Why? Why do you do it? Why do you go out of your way to fuck everything up for everyone else doing the one thing that you are told not to do? Are you a child, thinking that openly defying daddy Null will get you the attention you so desperately crave? This goes to every flaggot retard in the tweets thread and any of you retard a-logs and psuedo a-logs with this genuinely fucking retarded idea that because the retard says that he should be touched, you need to reach out and touch him.

I can get harvesting the information from an account that was left wide open by the drunk retard, but even that is dangerously close to putting yourself in hot water without protection. Doing all this "lol i'm changing his powerchat settings" and "lol what if i refunded all the donos haha lol" bullshit is top-tier faggotry and no amount of bullshit tweets by a deranged drunk who talks shit about everyone and everything is going to change that.