Global Depression 2022 - Time to do the Breadline Boogaloo!

[contradiction of terns]

I was very much enjoying the debate being had here, but I don't have a lot of time so this will unfortunately have to be quick and dirty.

There is a difference between a well-educated person and an intelligent person. Plenty of high level math nerds need a semi-permanent tard wrangler because they'd get themselves mowed down if you allowed them to cross the street unsupervised.

Secondly, colleges produce (nearly) exclusively two types of graduates at this point. Either you get the children of wealthy people who are often being handed a degree just for attending and paying their tab in a timely fashion, or you get people with some level of intellect and ability who are willing to drink the Kool-Aid.

That latter type are the ones being employed by the 'elites.' They're eggheads, yes, and undeniably have been educated to the point where they can create complex things (like models to predict global climate shifts, etc) or think in complex terms (the kind of advanced mathematics you need to put a space ship in orbit).

The glaring blind spot is that they're yes-man eggheads. They want to keep their jobs so they'll be inclined to produce the results they think the person cutting their checks want to hear. So no, the 'elites' aren't intelligent by proxy, because their think tanks will always be somewhat hamstrung by the desire to be in favor.

With that said, here's some news articles I've been archiving and sitting on for the last few days. The fireworks are mostly in other countries at this point, but there's some interesting stuff going down if you look at the Middle East and Africa.

Cash-strapped Lebanon wakes up to countrywide roadblocks


Poorest face food crisis amid fertiliser shortage

Turkish lira crisis hits Idlib in Syria - The economic collapse of Turkey and Lebanon has destabilized Syria as well. Iran is also having issues, which I will try to add some info on later because I'm out of time ATM.

 

[Only A Retard Sometimes]

probably hopeful thinking but

 

[Justa Grata Honoria]

That article is just a big rant about university wokeness. I don't disagree but I don't think it's treading any new ground.

As for population--we have to agree to disagree. People continue to eat every day, I believe the perceived threat of resource exhaustion is more dire than just allowing things to flat-line. If we take what folks like the Davos crowd has intimated, they're more concerned in an extreme decimation of population over a short timespan--billions of people.

Abortion is a rounding error if you apply the USA rates to the entire world.



I am not talking about academics. I am talking about more like mathematicians, quants, etc. Rich people hire smart people. They don't hire wokie blue-hairs.

You might disagree with my thesis--and I welcome a debate, but you're not giving me points that convince me that it's incorrect, or that it fails to make a good case for explaining current events.

Academics are where most policies are set as i said read limits to growth is written by a guy who literally predicted the 1970s oil shortage and peak usa oil production few years earlier did the elites gave a fuck or listen to the guy who warned them about the fuckery afoot nope they listened to the point of energy efficient cars to kick that can from the 90s to 2007/2008 commodities peak and subsequent massive crash but not about we need to restructure our whole economic system away from endless growth and stabilize the population which at the time was barely 3 billion. Why because other cocksuckers sold them green energy ,fusion and other hopium to get grants and get rich via selling books and getting deals even though they knew the math doesn't check out . And than read about currently how doctors, researchers and various brilliant minda get depersoned and kicked out of acadamia where they have access to money because they said something that somebody didn't like . Like right now majority of scientific leaders are literally politicians with lab coats on.

These are all good points.

What we also forget is that we can make organic matter out of inorganic.
But building hydroponics, desalinazing water, all that, maybe worth it if it is in Israel, but not in Apefrika.

The moment we reach fusion and asteroid mining, there will be plenty of resources for benevolent Xi to lord over.

Bro fusion is a running joke in the physics department . We are 50 years in " 10 years away from viable fusion reactor" . Don't get me started on eroi which is the basis for viability of any energy source . Which basically negative or negligible in term of net positive gor any bulshit green energy source ; solar , wind , hydrogen and fusion .

I won't even go into mining space asteroids ffs that is equivalent of gay space comunism with unicorns level in terms of physics and biology.

 

[Meat Target]

Anchors and analysts on Bloomberg have been shitting bricks about Jerry Powell's congressional testimony this week. What's going on? Something about inflation being more than just "transitory"?

 

[Hippopatumus]

That latter type are the ones being employed by the 'elites.' They're eggheads, yes, and undeniably have been educated to the point where they can create complex things (like models to predict global climate shifts, etc) or think in complex terms (the kind of advanced mathematics you need to put a space ship in orbit).

The glaring blind spot is that they're yes-man eggheads. They want to keep their jobs so they'll be inclined to produce the results they think the person cutting their checks want to hear.

I mostly disagree with this but I want to explain why.

There are two types of rich people; rich people and elite.

Rich people have millions and millions of dollars and money is no object. They fly on private jets and own island.

To elites, money literally doesn't exist. Think about it. 5% return on a hundred billion dollars is five billion dollars a year. Compounded. The markets actually have the liquidity to support that--mostly. When numbers get large enough things get weird.

There are elites that have multiples of that. Not everything is on paper or even that easy to put into numbers, but there are.

Money literally has no value to them, only power and maintaining it, because that is the only thing that matters.

These people, these elites, they are not hiring dipshit MA/PhD eggheads. They are hiring PROVEN geniuses; people who can prove they are smart with money--quants, rockstar analysts, etc.

Rich people are hiring the woke idiots.

Woke culture is just a tool for the elites.

 

[Hippopatumus]

View attachment 2765750
probably hopeful thinking but

This is the kind of shit I come here for. I have no idea how much of this is right or how much of this is wrong, but it's new stuff to think about. Really gets the noggin joggin.

 

[teriyakiburns]

Read limits to growth

I've read limits to growth. It's layers of bullshit piled on top of one another, based on assumptions that were only barely valid when it was written, and entirely invalid now. It was written in a time when it was generally assumed that oil would run out in the 90s and that the united states population would be close to a billion by the mid 2010s. It assumes that world population growth would be exponential into perpetuity. It assumed that food production would remain static, that technology would not advance, and that efficiencies would not increase. At the very time it was published the so-called green revolution had already taken place, which today means that we use less land to produce more food than was thought possible in the 1970s. We feed more people with less.

World population growth is not exponential. It hasn't been exponential for forty years.

Population growth in Africa appeared to go exponential in the 60s because they had access to medicine and better food, but were still stuck in a culture that valued high child birth rates on the assumption that most of them would die before they were useful. Population growth in Africa is no longer exponential and appears to be following a logistic curve, which will peak some time in the 30s and begin to shrink after that.

The chip shortage is nothing to do with it. That's the result of an entirely separate, fixable problem of over-long supply chains. The resources aren't running out (silicon chips are made of literal sand), they're merely stuck because of poor decision-making.

 

[Only A Retard Sometimes]

This is the kind of shit I come here for. I have no idea how much of this is right or how much of this is wrong, but it's new stuff to think about. Really gets the noggin joggin.

have some more then

 

[Hippopatumus]

have some more then
View attachment 2766411

See now this just looks fucking stupid.

 

[Hypnomouse]

Ooooor, the world is just forgetting about real value and have to much faith in the house of cards that is the financial system. Making the crash to come just worse. Occam's razor

 

[Sped Xing]

Even Occam's katana can't save us now.

 

[George Lucas]

A depression requires a drop in productivity. Full 2020 lockdown didn’t even drop productivity enough to cause a depression. What the hell is going to cause a productivity drop greater and longer than that?

 

[Hypnomouse]

A depression requires a drop in productivity. Full 2020 lockdown didn’t even drop productivity enough to cause a depression. What the hell is going to cause a productivity drop greater and longer than that?

My very uneducated guess is that america's investment market are very overvalued. All I can use to back that up is the buffet index. Which means that eventually, there is going to be very harsh correction. Then investors get so scared that the actual productivity ends up suffering as well, after. I think that a depression would actually be the healthy consequence. The fact that the prices kept rising was actually, kind of a bad sign. Again, uneducated. Out of curiosity, is there a measure for productivity? How does one know that productivity kept the same? Also, having the same productivity with much less trade in general doesn't sound a good idea.

 

[Only A Retard Sometimes]

My very uneducated guess is that america's investment market are very overvalued. All I can use to back that up is the buffet index. Which means that eventually, there is going to be very harsh correction. Then investors get so scared that the actual productivity ends up suffering as well, after. I think that a depression would actually be the healthy consequence. The fact that the prices kept rising was actually, kind of a bad sign. Again, uneducated. Out of curiosity, is there a measure for productivity? How does one know that productivity kept the same? Also, having the same productivity with much less trade in general doesn't sound a good idea.

I dont see how productivity stays the same with much less product moving and being made.

 

[contradiction of terns]

Money literally has no value to them, only power and maintaining it, because that is the only thing that matters.

They are hiring PROVEN geniuses; people who can prove they are smart with money--quants, rockstar analysts, etc.

Just so I understand this correctly; your claim is that the elites prioritize the hiring of people who are able to produce more of something they consider to have no value?

I'm mostly messing with you, but this did blow a fuse.

What I was trying to say in my original statement is that rich and powerful people tend to be extremely egotistical and convince themselves that they are rich and powerful because they're just that much better than everyone else, which opens them up to falling victim to sycophants and their own hubris.

It's why everyone knows the story of the Emperor's New Clothes. It's the reason Tzar Nicholas got his family murdered by listening to some stinky Russian pleb.

If nothing else the elites aren't hiring people who challenge them. Everyone has a bad idea now and then and will fuck their life up if they aren't challenged on it. I just think rich and powerful people are human and prone to bias and shortsightedness like everyone else. TBH, even if we disagree we can still be friends. I've seen you around and you seem level headed.

Anchors and analysts on Bloomberg have been shitting bricks about Jerry Powell's congressional testimony this week. What's going on? Something about inflation being more than just "transitory"?

Powel said the inflation is here to stay and that the Omicron variant may cause it to worsen. I think it's just freaking out the investing class because it signals that they're going to end the taper ASAP and potentially hike interest rates sooner than expected, but I'm not an expert in economics, so someone else might be able to explain it better.

Totally unrelated to the above, here is the thing about Iran I promised.

 

[Male Idiot]

Academics are where most policies are set as i said read limits to growth is written by a guy who literally predicted the 1970s oil shortage and peak usa oil production few years earlier did the elites gave a fuck or listen to the guy who warned them about the fuckery afoot nope they listened to the point of energy efficient cars to kick that can from the 90s to 2007/2008 commodities peak and subsequent massive crash but not about we need to restructure our whole economic system away from endless growth and stabilize the population which at the time was barely 3 billion. Why because other cocksuckers sold them green energy ,fusion and other hopium to get grants and get rich via selling books and getting deals even though they knew the math doesn't check out . And than read about currently how doctors, researchers and various brilliant minda get depersoned and kicked out of acadamia where they have access to money because they said something that somebody didn't like . Like right now majority of scientific leaders are literally politicians with lab coats on.

Bro fusion is a running joke in the physics department . We are 50 years in " 10 years away from viable fusion reactor" . Don't get me started on eroi which is the basis for viability of any energy source . Which basically negative or negligible in term of net positive gor any bulshit green energy source ; solar , wind , hydrogen and fusion .

I won't even go into mining space asteroids ffs that is equivalent of gay space comunism with unicorns level in terms of physics and biology.

Oh I am sure we will crack both. Maybe fusion in 50-150 years, asteroid mining in 100-200.

It sounds like a long ass time, and it is, for a person.

But if I went back to 1890s and told someone that I could fly to America from Australia in a day, talk to a Chinaman for a paltry sum with moving and talking portraits, well you get the picture.

Now this isn't relevant for us, but it is relavant to "But muh climaterino and we are stripmining mother Gaia it is current year bigot the Earth will be Venus by 2022!" types will be very salty when you tell them that Science can solve it before any of that becomes an issue.
They don't want to deny science do they, that is what magachuds do!
Until at least a tranny walks in. Thank my ancestors I have never seen one in real life.

 

[Keystone]

- The elites desire to both preserve their wealth and power, most having been handed vast fortunes from a long line of predecessors that have taught them to do so and earned those vast sums through hard work and determination and it would be an offense to their lineage to squander it

There is a difference between a well-educated person and an intelligent person. Plenty of high level math nerds need a semi-permanent tard wrangler because they'd get themselves mowed down if you allowed them to cross the street unsupervised.

I have always held that we are not at all smarter than our ancestors, just more informed. There is a difference.

 

[Gar For Archer]

I have always held that we are not at all smarter than our ancestors, just more informed. There is a difference.

I don’t know if there can even be an argument against this. The only reason humans were able to progress at a retardedly exponential rate is because we offloaded our knowledge from our unstable and short-lived meat brains onto much more permanent means of storage, allowing high-fidelity transfer of information across unrivaled lengths of time.

An above-average high schooler almost certainly knows more math than the legendary mathematicians that all the formulas are named after, but you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who would argue that the high schooler is smarter than the ancient mathematician.

 

[Sped Xing]

Intelligence is vestigial. If not for birth control, at least the Eloi would be beautiful and promiscuous.

 

[Quijibo69]

Buying my RV and playing video games in the middle of nowhere as long is there's solar power. I'm going to be like this guy: