Global Depression 2022 - Time to do the Breadline Boogaloo!

[Planted]

View attachment 3717943
According to the fed's most recent outlook, they've already got a potential range of 2.4 - 4.1% for core PCE inflation in 2023. My guess is they'll do another 75 point hike then claim they're done with larger hikes and that quantitative tightening / liquidity draining measures can handle it from there. Their problem for Q4 of this year is that OPEC just cut output and oil is going to rise again, fucking up this quarter's inflation numbers and keeping them above their hopeful targets they were banking on with gasoline prices having come down. A rail strike could also make gasoline prices rise if goods suddenly have to shift to truck, even if it's short-lived.

We're already in a recession, they just moved the goalposts on calling it to protect the stock markets, but in my view it's too little too late and this "recession" will be one of the worst ever, because I can't see how they can use expansionary money policy this time around. Probably not going to end up in a "depression" yet, but this decade is going to be pretty much shit for anyone who isn't sitting on half a million or more in assets right now.

thank god im sitting in an extra half mil currently, gobbless.
and inflation is gonna wreck some shit no matter what at this point. agreed.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

Poor / low skill immigrants are a net economic loss, but someone has to clean toilets or sling french fries. As the population ages, there's also a shortage of workers in elder care and lower level nursing. Someone also has to change grandpa's diapers or bathe him.

They'll also have more kids on average so will add to the labor pool and economy in the very long term by keeping the birth rate from plummeting for longer.

I'd rather have refugees who cost us a little extra money but will do menial jobs and help grow the labor pool, than wealthy chinese expats who buy up all the housing and end up not paying much in taxes while channeling their profits out of the country. They don't really want to come here to sit on welfare and do nothing, it's not much of a life with the cost of living the way it is. I don't like how Canada lets them immigrate elderly relatives to suck the healthcare system dry though.

And these immigrants bring their entire families such as their retired parents (who sit on welfare), their wife (or wives if Muzzie) who usually sits at home on welfare and shits out babies, many of whom join the local MS-13 set and do nothing but get welfare or crowd our prisons while they commit crime.

Sure, exceptions exist, but if these immigrants are so great, why are their neighborhoods absolute cesspits full of crime?

 

[F13 Key]

And these immigrants bring their entire families such as their retired parents (who sit on welfare), their wife (or wives if Muzzie) who usually sits at home on welfare and shits out babies, many of whom join the local MS-13 set and do nothing but get welfare or crowd our prisons while they commit crime.

Sure, exceptions exist, but if these immigrants are so great, why are their neighborhoods absolute cesspits full of crime?

I did punctuate saying I don't like them being able to immigrate elderly relatives. I'm okay taking a small hit trading GDP per capita for necessary labor, but not taking the much larger hit of them moving parents or siblings over.

Canada isn't the UK or EU nations, and doesn't have an illegal migrant problem, but does let in a lot of refugees and foreign skilled workers, as well as various family members, to the tune of about 350k people a year right now.

Canada doesn't experience major ghettoization (yet). The black hoods are shittier than the pajeet ones, but the black hoods are older and aren't pozzed with immigrants flooding them, they're just longterm poor. Our drains aren't from welfare, they're mostly from healthcare costs because the system is run like shit, or real estate prices making house ownership impossible for anyone.

This isn't an optimal situation to be in, but if white people stop having enough kids to operate the McDonalds or dig ditches or clean up shit, the only things you can do are incentivize having more kids with tax credits and free daycare, or boat a bunch of refugees in to do shitty jobs and have a bunch of babies in their more trad families, to do the shitty jobs when they grow up. I guess you could also shove Jesus down people's throats more, but I prefer my State and Church as separate as possible myself.

 

[Inspector Rex]

Here are some news from the other side.

Покупатели демобилизовались

Розничный товарооборот рухнул в конце сентября

vpost-media.ru

“I want to note some negative trends in the economy. So, consumer demand is still weak,” President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting on economic issues (quote from Interfax).

In July and August, retail sales fell by 8.8% in real terms, but Rosstat has not yet published data for September. They turned out to be even worse, and at the end of the month they failed, it follows from the president's words. According to him, in September this dynamics went down even more, "moreover, in the last week of the month, the trade turnover decreased even in nominal terms."

But inflation data is published every week. Yesterday, Rosstat reported that since the beginning of the year by October 3, prices rose by 10.4%. Annual inflation by October 3 was approximately 13.5%, Interfax calculated. That is, the nominal drop in sales means that in real terms, the decline in retail turnover at the end of September accelerated to at least 13.5%. The mobilization announcement created a rush for cash and some conscript goods (equipment and even camping gear), but froze most other purchases. Mobilization will have a negative impact on consumer demand, and Sberindex data has already recorded this, MMI analysts write. Shopping centers complain about the drop in traffic, the last week has been a failure for car dealers.

Another obstacle to demand is that banks are tightening lending conditions due to mobilization. Less loans = less purchases. Rising prices for non-food products (they are still not growing despite the inflation) restrains the limitation of demand due to partial mobilization, PSB analysts say.

“The desire of the population to purchase manufactured goods is deteriorating more and more clearly,” MMI analysts say: “Now the behavioral model will tilt towards savings rather than spending, especially with regard to large purchases of long-term goods.”

Falling demand is one of the main problems for the economic authorities. The Central Bank warned two months ago that the economy is at risk of falling into a trap: consumers will wait for price cuts, and producers will wait for increased demand. Consumers are unlikely to expect price cuts, but they are surely waiting for the normalization of overall situation.

And yeah, shopping malls and car dealers here look empty even on holidays, and real estate prices have actually started to fall (by 3-5% depending on the city).

 

[teriyakiburns]

So much of this disaster seems to stem from the unquestioned belief in the need for perpetual economic growth.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

So much of this disaster seems to stem from the unquestioned belief in the need for perpetual economic growth.

Because corporations (including banks) are legally required to do everything they can to increase profits quarter after quarter. If you think of it, Blackrock and other ESG garbage is actually keeping a lid on how much corporations can grow by making them waste a fuckton of money.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

U.K. is looking at rolling blackouts of up to 3 hours to preserve energy for heating this winter. It's funny watching people indoctrinated into the mmt of economics try to explain the current events, appealing to authorities that are still alive about fundamentals of economics that have been known since the greeks and Roman's. This is going to be soooooooo much worse than 2008, say goodbye to any paper currency you call money because it's going the way of the dodo.

I might add, the recent decision by opec+ to cut production by 2 million barrel's a day is just a major notch in the long line of little fuck yous every nation outside of the west has been sending our way the past 6 months plus, and expect that to continue. Last time the U.S. basically had every nation fully cooperating to help prop up the dollar and its fiat derivatives, this time no such luck will be afforded; infact large swaths of nations will be actively working against the ponzi this time.

 

[Inspector Rex]

I might add, the recent decision by opec+ to cut production by 2 million barrel's a day is just a major notch in the long line of little fuck yous every nation outside of the west has been sending our way the past 6 months plus, and expect that to continue

Tbh this looks very short-sighted, because crisis will hit countries like UAE as well, their whole diversification plans are just investing in hot things which are going to collapse before everything else. Maybe they know something that everyone else doesn't, but from my point of view this looks like a personal revenge party against (?) Dems.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

Tbh this looks very short-sighted, because crisis will hit countries like UAE as well, their whole diversification plans are just investing in hot things which are going to collapse before everything else. Maybe they know something that everyone else doesn't, but from my point of view this looks like a personal revenge party against (?) Dems.

I couldn't tell you exactly what their investments or plans for the future are, but I will say I doubt this is a specific fuck you to the dems, and more of a fuck you to the west.

 

[DamnWolves!]

Because corporations (including banks) are legally required to do everything they can to increase profits quarter after quarter. If you think of it, Blackrock and other ESG garbage is actually keeping a lid on how much corporations can grow by making them waste a fuckton of money.

I dunno why people say this; it isn't true. "Fiduciary duty" is not the same as "maximize QoQ net income, no matter what". Companies are supposed to make short term sacrifices for long term investment all the time, that's what capitalized intangibles and R&D credits are for. Another example is sponsorship or donation of a charitable cause--that certainly doesn't increase QoQ cashflow, but companies do that all the time.

"Maximizing value for shareholders" has an incredibly broad interpretation; so long as you aren't outright fraudulent or malicious, you're fine.

Now... that being said... CEOs get stock option grants that vest either over a relatively short period of time (4 years standard, 1 year accelerated), or when the stock price hits a certain threshold, even if it's only for 5 minutes. You can execute a cashless exercise to turn those options into cash immediately, and most c-suite execs do. As soon as you do, you've probably extracted 10-50X your annual compensation package worth of wealth from the company you run and then you get to go back to the board and threaten to leave because you no longer have an incentive to stay (because your options have been used) and they will likely give you more (because the stock would be at a record high at that point).

This rather sickening cycle of corporate abuse is what prioritizes short term, QoQ profits; not some nebulous legal concept around "fiduciary duty".

long line of little fuck yous every nation outside of the west has been sending our way the past 6 months plus, and expect that to continue.

We really should have taken the Saudis out when they blew up our buildings and bombed your tube station.

Tbh this looks very short-sighted, because crisis will hit countries like UAE as well, their whole diversification plans are just investing in hot things which are going to collapse before everything else.

The gulf states know how to take care of their own, especially the UAE (where muzzies come to do all the stuff they aren't allowed to at home). Nothing stops them from sending some oil out the back door, or prioritizing their own supply before selling the excess.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

I dunno why people say this; it isn't true. "Fiduciary duty" is not the same as "maximize QoQ net income, no matter what". Companies are supposed to make short term sacrifices for long term investment all the time, that's what capitalized intangibles and R&D credits are for. Another example is sponsorship or donation of a charitable cause--that certainly doesn't increase QoQ cashflow, but companies do that all the time.

"Maximizing value for shareholders" has an incredibly broad interpretation; so long as you aren't outright fraudulent or malicious, you're fine.

Now... that being said... CEOs get stock option grants that vest either over a relatively short period of time (4 years standard, 1 year accelerated), or when the stock price hits a certain threshold, even if it's only for 5 minutes. You can execute a cashless exercise to turn those options into cash immediately, and most c-suite execs do. As soon as you do, you've probably extracted 10-50X your annual compensation package worth of wealth from the company you run and then you get to go back to the board and threaten to leave because you no longer have an incentive to stay (because your options have been used) and they will likely give you more (because the stock would be at a record high at that point).

This rather sickening cycle of corporate abuse is what prioritizes short term, QoQ profits; not some nebulous legal concept around "fiduciary duty".

We really should have taken the Saudis out when they blew up our buildings and bombed your tube station.

The gulf states know how to take care of their own, especially the UAE (where muzzies come to do all the stuff they aren't allowed to at home). Nothing stops them from sending some oil out the back door, or prioritizing their own supply before selling the excess.

I'm not british, and the saudi's didn't cause 9/11.

 

[not william stenchever]

I dunno why people say this; it isn't true. "Fiduciary duty" is not the same as "maximize QoQ net income, no matter what". Companies are supposed to make short term sacrifices for long term investment all the time, that's what capitalized intangibles and R&D credits are for. Another example is sponsorship or donation of a charitable cause--that certainly doesn't increase QoQ cashflow, but companies do that all the time.

"Maximizing value for shareholders" has an incredibly broad interpretation; so long as you aren't outright fraudulent or malicious, you're fine.

Why are you assuming that stockholders aren't retarded too?

 

[DamnWolves!]

I'm not british

Could've fooled me

 

[Vyse Inglebard]

ALL AROUND ME ARE FAMILIAR FACES
WORN OUT PLACES
WORN OUT FACES

 

[benutz]

U.K. is looking at rolling blackouts of up to 3 hours to preserve energy for heating this winter. It's funny watching people indoctrinated into the mmt of economics try to explain the current events, appealing to authorities that are still alive about fundamentals of economics that have been known since the greeks and Roman's. This is going to be soooooooo much worse than 2008, say goodbye to any paper currency you call money because it's going the way of the dodo.
View attachment 3721650


I might add, the recent decision by opec+ to cut production by 2 million barrel's a day is just a major notch in the long line of little fuck yous every nation outside of the west has been sending our way the past 6 months plus, and expect that to continue. Last time the U.S. basically had every nation fully cooperating to help prop up the dollar and its fiat derivatives, this time no such luck will be afforded; infact large swaths of nations will be actively working against the ponzi this time.

UK is looking at blackouts for sure. First they say 'may', then they say 'might', next they say 'possibly', then they say 'probably'. Softening up. Fattening up for the kill. Kind of thing.

Send lawyers guns and money
I'm a dangerous man
Send lawyers guns and money
Shit's about to hit the fan


I went home with a waitress the way I always do
How was I to know she was with the russians, too?

I was gambling in havana, I took a little risk
Send lawyers, guns, and money
Dad, get me out of this, hiyah!

An innocent bystander
Somehow I got stuck between a rock and a hard place
And I'm down on my luck
Yes, I'm down on my luck
Well, I'm down on my luck

I'm hiding in honduras, I'm a desperate man
Send lawyers, guns, and money
The shit has hit the fan

Send lawyers, guns, and money
Send lawyers, guns, and money

Send lawyers, guns, and money, hiyah!
Send lawyers, guns, and money, ow!

====

The problem at this point is energy consumption per capita on a world basis falling since 2018. This is a far too subtle problem for the news networks to pick up. Also, crude oil consumption per capita has fallen since 2018.

What happens with less worldwide energy consumption per capita is increased wage and wealth disparity around the world. People in poor countries, especially, tend to do badly as industries of many types are lessened. For example, there is less tourism and less making of fancy clothes for people from rich countries. Rolling blackouts become more common in some countries. This is already happening, in countries such as South Africa and China.

Furthermore, there is greater chance of wars, indirectly related to energy prices that are too low for producers, such as Russia. A country that is not making a high enough profit from its sale of natural gas (or coal or oil) is likely to become belligerent toward its customers who cannot afford to pay a sufficiently enough price. Fill in the blank with a country in this category.

It might be that cutting off energy supplies from Russia is precisely what Russia wanted because Russia could not make a sufficient profit on sales to Ukraine in particular and Europe in general.

Ramping Up Renewables Can’t Provide Enough Heat Energy in Winter

We usually don't think about the wonderful service fossil fuels provide in terms of being a store of heat energy for winter, the time when there is a greater need for heat energy. Figure 1 shows dramatically how, in the US, the residential usage of heating fuels spikes during the winter months...

ourfiniteworld.com

====


Went to get some bread and some beers tonight. Shop closed. First time ever in over a decade. Due to 'Staff Illness'. You be illin', while I not be chillin'. Fuck you!

The whole fucking beer section was blacked out. NO leccy for lighting. But the beers were cold. Well, cold, by britbong standards.

Send Lawyers, guns and money.

The shit has hit the fan!


(I'm all shitposted out. Site is fucked again.)

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

The problem at this point is energy consumption per capita on a world basis falling since 2018. This is a far too subtle problem for the news networks to pick up. Also, crude oil consumption per capita has fallen since 2018.

What happens with less worldwide energy consumption per capita is increased wage and wealth disparity around the world. People in poor countries, especially, tend to do badly as industries of many types are lessened. For example, there is less tourism and less making of fancy clothes for people from rich countries. Rolling blackouts become more common in some countries. This is already happening, in countries such as South Africa and China.

That article is straight up bullshit. The reason energy consumption and crude oil consumption has fallen since 2018 is because Western countries have constantly increased energy efficiency in everything from recycling to vehicles. Most top selling cars in markets like China or India easily get 30-40 MPG. Hybrids and electric cars have absolutely exploded in use since the late 10s which are far more energy efficient. Older, less energy efficient vehicles, machinery, electronics, etc. are constantly getting retired. Meanwhile, the population of the developed world is getting old and dying off, which means they're using less electricity and oil, andd their replacements (third worlders) are poor and don't consume as much either.

It has nothing to do with tourism (I believe it should increase tourism because of the Jevons effect) or third world sweatshops making less clothes, nor does it have anything to do with blackouts which in the case of China and South Africa is shitty, dated infrastructure and corruption. Or poverty/wealth disparity, since more efficient energy is better for the consumer. If your house uses 10% less energy and car uses 10% less gas, you save money (this is not necessarily the case IRL since these new energy efficient appliances can be more expensive and of course the fucking retard politicians telling us to buy Teslas, but I'm just quoting basic economics).

The thing with energy producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia is true, though.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

Payrolls Turn Negative Next Quarter And Stay There For All 2023: BofA | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

After Friday's payrolls report once again surprised to the upside, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly slumped near all time lows as the number of unemployed workers dropped sharply in September, sparking a swoon in the S&P on 6 of the past 7 payroll Fridays, Bank of America's economists summarized the payrolls data noting that there was "little in our BofA Indicator of US Labor Market Conditions and BofA Indicator of US Labor Market Momentum that suggests current and expected Fed tightening have significantly dented the strength of labor markets." They go on to note that while conditions have moderated somewhat, they remain near all-time highs, and "those that were expecting the Fed to pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes in November may very well be disappointed on the heels of today's report."

But it's not all good news: momentum - which is the marginal rate of change in labor market conditions - has softened somewhat over the past year, likely reflecting some of the unusual nature of labor market performance during the pandemic. In other words, the BofA framework would normally interpret slower payroll employment and stronger wage growth as late-cycle developments, whereas in the current context they could simply characterize a labor market emerging from the pandemic. The bank's economists conclude that "notwithstanding this signal extraction problem, we are inclined to take the framework at face value; though recent employment reports would be viewed as robust by any historical standard, they are still less robust than some employment reports received in 2020 and 2021."

A far more ominous take on the NFP report was provided courtesy of BofA credit strategist Yuri Seliger who wrote that while the September Payrolls report was strong, "we should start seeing a slowdown in jobs soon."

"It's Become A Political Arm Of White House": ATF Gun Store Revocations Hit 16-Year High | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

"The pandemic hobbled the ATF's ability to conduct compliance inspections at gun stores, and the total number of inspections has yet to rebound to pre-pandemic levels," Trace said.

Anti-gun David Chipman, former ATF agent and Biden's failed ATF head nomination, who now works for the Center for Gun Violence Solutions at Johns Hopkins University, commented on the data, saying, "the trendline is good. We should applaud the agency for holding the industry accountable — for doing its job."

The belt tightening is coming and they are going to tighten that iron fist against your neck harder to squeeze more pennies out...

 

[Car Won't Crank]

Gas prices are back up. $50 tanks again so sad.

 

[anustart76]

Payrolls Turn Negative Next Quarter And Stay There For All 2023: BofA | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

"It's Become A Political Arm Of White House": ATF Gun Store Revocations Hit 16-Year High | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

The belt tightening is coming and they are going to tighten that iron fist against your neck harder to squeeze more pennies out...

ATF really should be abolished. Just like the IRS and the Federal Reserve. Instead all of those just keep getting bigger.

Gas prices are back up. $50 tanks again so sad.

Yeah I've seen it around, filling up my tank hurts me in the pit of my wallet.

 

[F13 Key]

The cope is strong with these idiots. "The economy is doing well" only because they've not yet managed to get companies to start shedding jobs faster than one of those marshmallow fluff dogs sheds hair. Practically every indicator otherwise is in the zone.