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- Nov 15, 2021
Intel's heterogeneous approach is interesting, but overrated in relation to AMD. AMD is expected to follow suit with 4+8 Strix Point mobile (12 cores, 24 threads). If you need more multi-threaded performance than that in a laptop, they will have 16-core Dragon/Fire Range and maybe Strix Halo.
It's not just performance. Laptop CPU sales are 100% to OEMs. The fact that Intel managed to not fall behind (as opposed to servers & workstations) means that when they reach process parity, AMD's inability to build a significant laptop CPU business means they won't have an opening. 2, 3 years ago, AMD could have developed a laptop chip that just killed Intel on all fronts and grabbed significant share of that OEM pie. Now? IMO it's too late already. They might be able to develop some marginal advantage, but a marginal advantage doesn't get anyone at Dell to change a supply chain.
AMD got its XDNA AI chip in mobile first. Maybe Intel will beat them in software support, but it's kind of important for the future of AMD and they bought more expertise with the Xilinx acquisiton. I'm looking forward to seeing if AMD pushes XDNA hard in desktop, since they hinted it won't be in Granite Ridge (Zen 5).
Not in a meaningful way. A few months really means nothing for capturing OEM market share. The reason is changing over business relationships is an enormously slow, expensive process. To beat an incumbent, you have to deliver in a big way over a sustained period. AMD was first with 32-core server CPUs with Zen 1, but it didn't really start grabbing market share from Intel in a major way until Zen 2, when it became pretty clear to the people who sell server nodes (Dell, HPE, Supermicro, etc) that Intel had fallen behind and was not going to catch up soon.
By contrast, over 70% of the laptop CPU market share is Intel's, and AMD hasn't been growing in that space meaningfully. The fact that they shoved 7040U out the door a few months before the Meteor Lake launch isn't changing any plans at Dell, HP, or Lenovo, nor is it changing any development plans anywhere. As Intel closes their process node deficit, AMD's window of opportunity is closing as well. Sure, E-cores are coming to AMD, but it's too late. They should have done that in 2020, when Intel was struggling along at 10 nm and failing to meaningfully advance. They'd probably have a majority of the laptop market if they had the foresight to do that, since they'd be crushing Intel on battery life.
Furthermore, software isn't hypothetical. The oneAPI stack beats the shit out of ROCm, because it works. I have it, and I've been using it (and, ironically, using it on a platform with a Ryzen CPU to develop on an NVIDIA GPU). AMD's shit is half-broken all the time. So in consumer-facing AI, right now, I'm looking at a landscape where
- I expect Intel to continue have a 70% market share of consumer hardware for the foreseeable future
- Intel's developer tools work
- Intel's tools support more platforms than AMD's do
Intel is likely to copy AMD and pursue big 3D caches. Probably the Adamantine L4 cache, but not in Meteor Lake. What AMD hasn't done is stick any big caches in mobile other than Dragon Range X3D, or allow it to be accessed by integrated graphics. If they do both, it can have a much bigger impact than squeezing a few more frames out of a 4090.
Big L3 caches are essential in the server space, where engineering workloads (think FEA, CFD, EDA, etc) drive a lot of purchasing, and the price of the extra cache is worth it. Xeon is getting hammered by EPYC X-series there, so I fully expect Intel to follow AMD's lead there soon (Xeon Max's HBM is a stopgap measure). For integrated graphics on mobile, integrated LPDDR5 is going to be a much more effective route than increasing L3 cache, and I expect everyone to follow Apple's lead there.
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