War How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline - By Seymour Hersh

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The U.S. Navy’s Diving and Salvage Center can be found in a location as obscure as its name—down what was once a country lane in rural Panama City, a now-booming resort city in the southwestern panhandle of Florida, 70 miles south of the Alabama border. The center’s complex is as nondescript as its location—a drab concrete post-World War II structure that has the look of a vocational high school on the west side of Chicago. A coin-operated laundromat and a dance school are across what is now a four-lane road.

The center has been training highly skilled deep-water divers for decades who, once assigned to American military units worldwide, are capable of technical diving to do the good—using C4 explosives to clear harbors and beaches of debris and unexploded ordinance—as well as the bad, like blowing up foreign oil rigs, fouling intake valves for undersea power plants, destroying locks on crucial shipping canals. The Panama City center, which boasts the second largest indoor pool in America, was the perfect place to recruit the best, and most taciturn, graduates of the diving school who successfully did last summer what they had been authorized to do 260 feet under the surface of the Baltic Sea.

Last June, the Navy divers, operating under the cover of a widely publicized mid-summer NATO exercise known as BALTOPS 22, planted the remotely triggered explosives that, three months later, destroyed three of the four Nord Stream pipelines, according to a source with direct knowledge of the operational planning.

Two of the pipelines, which were known collectively as Nord Stream 1, had been providing Germany and much of Western Europe with cheap Russian natural gas for more than a decade. A second pair of pipelines, called Nord Stream 2, had been built but were not yet operational. Now, with Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian border and the bloodiest war in Europe since 1945 looming, President Joseph Biden saw the pipelines as a vehicle for Vladimir Putin to weaponize natural gas for his political and territorial ambitions.

Asked for comment, Adrienne Watson, a White House spokesperson, said in an email, “This is false and complete fiction.” Tammy Thorp, a spokesperson for the Central Intelligence Agency, similarly wrote: “This claim is completely and utterly false.”

Biden’s decision to sabotage the pipelines came after more than nine months of highly secret back and forth debate inside Washington’s national security community about how to best achieve that goal. For much of that time, the issue was not whether to do the mission, but how to get it done with no overt clue as to who was responsible.

There was a vital bureaucratic reason for relying on the graduates of the center’s hardcore diving school in Panama City. The divers were Navy only, and not members of America’s Special Operations Command, whose covert operations must be reported to Congress and briefed in advance to the Senate and House leadership—the so-called Gang of Eight. The Biden Administration was doing everything possible to avoid leaks as the planning took place late in 2021 and into the first months of 2022.

President Biden and his foreign policy team—National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Tony Blinken, and Victoria Nuland, the Undersecretary of State for Policy—had been vocal and consistent in their hostility to the two pipelines, which ran side by side for 750 miles under the Baltic Sea from two different ports in northeastern Russia near the Estonian border, passing close to the Danish island of Bornholm before ending in northern Germany.

The direct route, which bypassed any need to transit Ukraine, had been a boon for the German economy, which enjoyed an abundance of cheap Russian natural gas—enough to run its factories and heat its homes while enabling German distributors to sell excess gas, at a profit, throughout Western Europe. Action that could be traced to the administration would violate US promises to minimize direct conflict with Russia. Secrecy was essential.

From its earliest days, Nord Stream 1 was seen by Washington and its anti-Russian NATO partners as a threat to western dominance. The holding company behind it, Nord Stream AG, was incorporated in Switzerland in 2005 in partnership with Gazprom, a publicly traded Russian company producing enormous profits for shareholders which is dominated by oligarchs known to be in the thrall of Putin. Gazprom controlled 51 percent of the company, with four European energy firms—one in France, one in the Netherlands and two in Germany—sharing the remaining 49 percent of stock, and having the right to control downstream sales of the inexpensive natural gas to local distributors in Germany and Western Europe. Gazprom’s profits were shared with the Russian government, and state gas and oil revenues were estimated in some years to amount to as much as 45 percent of Russia’s annual budget.

America’s political fears were real: Putin would now have an additional and much-needed major source of income, and Germany and the rest of Western Europe would become addicted to low-cost natural gas supplied by Russia—while diminishing European reliance on America. In fact, that’s exactly what happened. Many Germans saw Nord Stream 1 as part of the deliverance of former Chancellor Willy Brandt’s famed Ostpolitik theory, which would enable postwar Germany to rehabilitate itself and other European nations destroyed in World War II by, among other initiatives, utilizing cheap Russian gas to fuel a prosperous Western European market and trading economy.

Nord Stream 1 was dangerous enough, in the view of NATO and Washington, but Nord Stream 2, whose construction was completed in September of 2021, would, if approved by German regulators, double the amount of cheap gas that would be available to Germany and Western Europe. The second pipeline also would provide enough gas for more than 50 percent of Germany’s annual consumption. Tensions were constantly escalating between Russia and NATO, backed by the aggressive foreign policy of the Biden Administration.

Opposition to Nord Stream 2 flared on the eve of the Biden inauguration in January 2021, when Senate Republicans, led by Ted Cruz of Texas, repeatedly raised the political threat of cheap Russian natural gas during the confirmation hearing of Blinken as Secretary of State. By then a unified Senate had successfully passed a law that, as Cruz told Blinken, “halted [the pipeline] in its tracks.” There would be enormous political and economic pressure from the German government, then headed by Angela Merkel, to get the second pipeline online.

Would Biden stand up to the Germans? Blinken said yes, but added that he had not discussed the specifics of the incoming President’s views. “I know his strong conviction that this is a bad idea, the Nord Stream 2,” he said. “I know that he would have us use every persuasive tool that we have to convince our friends and partners, including Germany, not to move forward with it.”

A few months later, as the construction of the second pipeline neared completion, Biden blinked. That May, in a stunning turnaround, the administration waived sanctions against Nord Stream AG, with a State Department official conceding that trying to stop the pipeline through sanctions and diplomacy had “always been a long shot.” Behind the scenes, administration officials reportedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, by then facing a threat of Russian invasion, not to criticize the move.

There were immediate consequences. Senate Republicans, led by Cruz, announced an immediate blockade of all of Biden’s foreign policy nominees and delayed passage of the annual defense bill for months, deep into the fall. Politico later depicted Biden’s turnabout on the second Russian pipeline as “the one decision, arguably more than the chaotic military withdrawal from Afghanistan, that has imperiled Biden’s agenda.”

The administration was floundering, despite getting a reprieve on the crisis in mid-November, when Germany’s energy regulators suspended approval of the second Nord Stream pipeline. Natural gas prices surged 8% within days, amid growing fears in Germany and Europe that the pipeline suspension and the growing possibility of a war between Russia and Ukraine would lead to a very much unwanted cold winter. It was not clear to Washington just where Olaf Scholz, Germany’s newly appointed chancellor, stood. Months earlier, after the fall of Afghanistan, Scholtz had publicly endorsed French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a more autonomous European foreign policy in a speech in Prague—clearly suggesting less reliance on Washington and its mercurial actions.

Throughout all of this, Russian troops had been steadily and ominously building up on the borders of Ukraine, and by the end of December more than 100,000 soldiers were in position to strike from Belarus and Crimea. Alarm was growing in Washington, including an assessment from Blinken that those troop numbers could be “doubled in short order.”

The administration’s attention once again was focused on Nord Stream. As long as Europe remained dependent on the pipelines for cheap natural gas, Washington was afraid that countries like Germany would be reluctant to supply Ukraine with the money and weapons it needed to defeat Russia.

It was at this unsettled moment that Biden authorized Jake Sullivan to bring together an interagency group to come up with a plan.

All options were to be on the table. But only one would emerge.

PLANNING

In December of 2021, two months before the first Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, Jake Sullivan convened a meeting of a newly formed task force—men and women from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the CIA, and the State and Treasury Departments—and asked for recommendations about how to respond to Putin’s impending invasion.

It would be the first of a series of top-secret meetings, in a secure room on a top floor of the Old Executive Office Building, adjacent to the White House, that was also the home of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB). There was the usual back and forth chatter that eventually led to a crucial preliminary question: Would the recommendation forwarded by the group to the President be reversible—such as another layer of sanctions and currency restrictions—or irreversible—that is, kinetic actions, which could not be undone?

What became clear to participants, according to the source with direct knowledge of the process, is that Sullivan intended for the group to come up with a plan for the destruction of the two Nord Stream pipelines—and that he was delivering on the desires of the President.
THE PLAYERS Left to right: Victoria Nuland, Anthony Blinken, and Jake Sullivan.

Over the next several meetings, the participants debated options for an attack. The Navy proposed using a newly commissioned submarine to assault the pipeline directly. The Air Force discussed dropping bombs with delayed fuses that could be set off remotely. The CIA argued that whatever was done, it would have to be covert. Everyone involved understood the stakes. “This is not kiddie stuff,” the source said. If the attack were traceable to the United States, “It’s an act of war.”

At the time, the CIA was directed by William Burns, a mild-mannered former ambassador to Russia who had served as deputy secretary of state in the Obama Administration. Burns quickly authorized an Agency working group whose ad hoc members included—by chance—someone who was familiar with the capabilities of the Navy’s deep-sea divers in Panama City. Over the next few weeks, members of the CIA’s working group began to craft a plan for a covert operation that would use deep-sea divers to trigger an explosion along the pipeline.

Something like this had been done before. In 1971, the American intelligence community learned from still undisclosed sources that two important units of the Russian Navy were communicating via an undersea cable buried in the Sea of Okhotsk, on Russia’s Far East Coast. The cable linked a regional Navy command to the mainland headquarters at Vladivostok.

A hand-picked team of Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency operatives was assembled somewhere in the Washington area, under deep cover, and worked out a plan, using Navy divers, modified submarines and a deep-submarine rescue vehicle, that succeeded, after much trial and error, in locating the Russian cable. The divers planted a sophisticated listening device on the cable that successfully intercepted the Russian traffic and recorded it on a taping system.

The NSA learned that senior Russian navy officers, convinced of the security of their communication link, chatted away with their peers without encryption. The recording device and its tape had to be replaced monthly and the project rolled on merrily for a decade until it was compromised by a forty-four-year-old civilian NSA technician named Ronald Pelton who was fluent in Russian. Pelton was betrayed by a Russian defector in 1985 and sentenced to prison. He was paid just $5,000 by the Russians for his revelations about the operation, along with $35,000 for other Russian operational data he provided that was never made public.

That underwater success, codenamed Ivy Bells, was innovative and risky, and produced invaluable intelligence about the Russian Navy's intentions and planning.

Still, the interagency group was initially skeptical of the CIA’s enthusiasm for a covert deep-sea attack. There were too many unanswered questions. The waters of the Baltic Sea were heavily patrolled by the Russian navy, and there were no oil rigs that could be used as cover for a diving operation. Would the divers have to go to Estonia, right across the border from Russia’s natural gas loading docks, to train for the mission? “It would be a goat fuck,” the Agency was told.

Throughout “all of this scheming,” the source said, “some working guys in the CIA and the State Department were saying, ‘Don’t do this. It’s stupid and will be a political nightmare if it comes out.’”

Nevertheless, in early 2022, the CIA working group reported back to Sullivan’s interagency group: “We have a way to blow up the pipelines.”

What came next was stunning. On February 7, less than three weeks before the seemingly inevitable Russian invasion of Ukraine, Biden met in his White House office with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who, after some wobbling, was now firmly on the American team. At the press briefing that followed, Biden defiantly said, “If Russia invades . . . there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

Twenty days earlier, Undersecretary Nuland had delivered essentially the same message at a State Department briefing, with little press coverage. “I want to be very clear to you today,” she said in response to a question. “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

Several of those involved in planning the pipeline mission were dismayed by what they viewed as indirect references to the attack.

“It was like putting an atomic bomb on the ground in Tokyo and telling the Japanese that we are going to detonate it,” the source said. “The plan was for the options to be executed post invasion and not advertised publicly. Biden simply didn’t get it or ignored it.”

Biden’s and Nuland’s indiscretion, if that is what it was, might have frustrated some of the planners. But it also created an opportunity. According to the source, some of the senior officials of the CIA determined that blowing up the pipeline “no longer could be considered a covert option because the President just announced that we knew how to do it.”

The plan to blow up Nord Stream 1 and 2 was suddenly downgraded from a covert operation requiring that Congress be informed to one that was deemed as a highly classified intelligence operation with U.S. military support. Under the law, the source explained, “There was no longer a legal requirement to report the operation to Congress. All they had to do now is just do it—but it still had to be secret. The Russians have superlative surveillance of the Baltic Sea.”

The Agency working group members had no direct contact with the White House, and were eager to find out if the President meant what he’d said—that is, if the mission was now a go. The source recalled, “Bill Burns comes back and says, ‘Do it.’”
“The Norwegian navy was quick to find the right spot, in the shallow water a few miles off Denmark’s Bornholm Island . . .”

THE OPERATION

Norway was the perfect place to base the mission.

In the past few years of East-West crisis, the U.S. military has vastly expanded its presence inside Norway, whose western border runs 1,400 miles along the north Atlantic Ocean and merges above the Arctic Circle with Russia. The Pentagon has created high paying jobs and contracts, amid some local controversy, by investing hundreds of millions of dollars to upgrade and expand American Navy and Air Force facilities in Norway. The new works included, most importantly, an advanced synthetic aperture radar far up north that was capable of penetrating deep into Russia and came online just as the American intelligence community lost access to a series of long-range listening sites inside China.

A newly refurbished American submarine base, which had been under construction for years, had become operational and more American submarines were now able to work closely with their Norwegian colleagues to monitor and spy on a major Russian nuclear redoubt 250 miles to the east, on the Kola Peninsula. America also has vastly expanded a Norwegian air base in the north and delivered to the Norwegian air force a fleet of Boeing-built P8 Poseidon patrol planes to bolster its long-range spying on all things Russia.

In return, the Norwegian government angered liberals and some moderates in its parliament last November by passing the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement (SDCA). Under the new deal, the U.S. legal system would have jurisdiction in certain “agreed areas” in the North over American soldiers accused of crimes off base, as well as over those Norwegian citizens accused or suspected of interfering with the work at the base.

Norway was one of the original signatories of the NATO Treaty in 1949, in the early days of the Cold War. Today, the supreme commander of NATO is Jens Stoltenberg, a committed anti-communist, who served as Norway’s prime minister for eight years before moving to his high NATO post, with American backing, in 2014. He was a hardliner on all things Putin and Russia who had cooperated with the American intelligence community since the Vietnam War. He has been trusted completely since. “He is the glove that fits the American hand,” the source said.

Back in Washington, planners knew they had to go to Norway. “They hated the Russians, and the Norwegian navy was full of superb sailors and divers who had generations of experience in highly profitable deep-sea oil and gas exploration,” the source said. They also could be trusted to keep the mission secret. (The Norwegians may have had other interests as well. The destruction of Nord Stream—if the Americans could pull it off—would allow Norway to sell vastly more of its own natural gas to Europe.)

Sometime in March, a few members of the team flew to Norway to meet with the Norwegian Secret Service and Navy. One of the key questions was where exactly in the Baltic Sea was the best place to plant the explosives. Nord Stream 1 and 2, each with two sets of pipelines, were separated much of the way by little more than a mile as they made their run to the port of Greifswald in the far northeast of Germany.

The Norwegian navy was quick to find the right spot, in the shallow waters of the Baltic sea a few miles off Denmark’s Bornholm Island. The pipelines ran more than a mile apart along a seafloor that was only 260 feet deep. That would be well within the range of the divers, who, operating from a Norwegian Alta class mine hunter, would dive with a mixture of oxygen, nitrogen and helium streaming from their tanks, and plant shaped C4 charges on the four pipelines with concrete protective covers. It would be tedious, time consuming and dangerous work, but the waters off Bornholm had another advantage: there were no major tidal currents, which would have made the task of diving much more difficult.

After a bit of research, the Americans were all in.

At this point, the Navy’s obscure deep-diving group in Panama City once again came into play. The deep-sea schools at Panama City, whose trainees participated in Ivy Bells, are seen as an unwanted backwater by the elite graduates of the Naval Academy in Annapolis, who typically seek the glory of being assigned as a Seal, fighter pilot, or submariner. If one must become a “Black Shoe”—that is, a member of the less desirable surface ship command—there is always at least duty on a destroyer, cruiser or amphibious ship. The least glamorous of all is mine warfare. Its divers never appear in Hollywood movies, or on the cover of popular magazines.

“The best divers with deep diving qualifications are a tight community, and only the very best are recruited for the operation and told to be prepared to be summoned to the CIA in Washington,” the source said.

The Norwegians and Americans had a location and the operatives, but there was another concern: any unusual underwater activity in the waters off Bornholm might draw the attention of the Swedish or Danish navies, which could report it.

Denmark had also been one of the original NATO signatories and was known in the intelligence community for its special ties to the United Kingdom. Sweden had applied for membership into NATO, and had demonstrated its great skill in managing its underwater sound and magnetic sensor systems that successfully tracked Russian submarines that would occasionally show up in remote waters of the Swedish archipelago and be forced to the surface.

The Norwegians joined the Americans in insisting that some senior officials in Denmark and Sweden had to be briefed in general terms about possible diving activity in the area. In that way, someone higher up could intervene and keep a report out of the chain of command, thus insulating the pipeline operation. “What they were told and what they knew were purposely different,” the source told me. (The Norwegian embassy, asked to comment on this story, did not respond.)

The Norwegians were key to solving other hurdles. The Russian navy was known to possess surveillance technology capable of spotting, and triggering, underwater mines. The American explosive devices needed to be camouflaged in a way that would make them appear to the Russian system as part of the natural background—something that required adapting to the specific salinity of the water. The Norwegians had a fix.

The Norwegians also had a solution to the crucial question of when the operation should take place. Every June, for the past 21 years, the American Sixth Fleet, whose flagship is based in Gaeta, Italy, south of Rome, has sponsored a major NATO exercise in the Baltic Sea involving scores of allied ships throughout the region. The current exercise, held in June, would be known as Baltic Operations 22, or BALTOPS 22. The Norwegians proposed this would be the ideal cover to plant the mines.

The Americans provided one vital element: they convinced the Sixth Fleet planners to add a research and development exercise to the program. The exercise, as made public by the Navy, involved the Sixth Fleet in collaboration with the Navy’s “research and warfare centers.” The at-sea event would be held off the coast of Bornholm Island and involve NATO teams of divers planting mines, with competing teams using the latest underwater technology to find and destroy them.

It was both a useful exercise and ingenious cover. The Panama City boys would do their thing and the C4 explosives would be in place by the end of BALTOPS22, with a 48-hour timer attached. All of the Americans and Norwegians would be long gone by the first explosion.

The days were counting down. “The clock was ticking, and we were nearing mission accomplished,” the source said.

And then: Washington had second thoughts. The bombs would still be planted during BALTOPS, but the White House worried that a two-day window for their detonation would be too close to the end of the exercise, and it would be obvious that America had been involved.

Instead, the White House had a new request: “Can the guys in the field come up with some way to blow the pipelines later on command?”

Some members of the planning team were angered and frustrated by the President’s seeming indecision. The Panama City divers had repeatedly practiced planting the C4 on pipelines, as they would during BALTOPS, but now the team in Norway had to come up with a way to give Biden what he wanted—the ability to issue a successful execution order at a time of his choosing.

Being tasked with an arbitrary, last-minute change was something the CIA was accustomed to managing. But it also renewed the concerns some shared over the necessity, and legality, of the entire operation.

The President’s secret orders also evoked the CIA’s dilemma in the Vietnam War days, when President Johnson, confronted by growing anti-Vietnam War sentiment, ordered the Agency to violate its charter—which specifically barred it from operating inside America—by spying on antiwar leaders to determine whether they were being controlled by Communist Russia.

The agency ultimately acquiesced, and throughout the 1970s it became clear just how far it had been willing to go. There were subsequent newspaper revelations in the aftermath of the Watergate scandals about the Agency’s spying on American citizens, its involvement in the assassination of foreign leaders and its undermining of the socialist government of Salvador Allende.

Those revelations led to a dramatic series of hearings in the mid-1970s in the Senate, led by Frank Church of Idaho, that made it clear that Richard Helms, the Agency director at the time, accepted that he had an obligation to do what the President wanted, even if it meant violating the law.

In unpublished, closed-door testimony, Helms ruefully explained that “you almost have an Immaculate Conception when you do something” under secret orders from a President. “Whether it’s right that you should have it, or wrong that you shall have it, [the CIA] works under different rules and ground rules than any other part of the government.” He was essentially telling the Senators that he, as head of the CIA, understood that he had been working for the Crown, and not the Constitution.

The Americans at work in Norway operated under the same dynamic, and dutifully began working on the new problem—how to remotely detonate the C4 explosives on Biden’s order. It was a much more demanding assignment than those in Washington understood. There was no way for the team in Norway to know when the President might push the button. Would it be in a few weeks, in many months or in half a year or longer?

The C4 attached to the pipelines would be triggered by a sonar buoy dropped by a plane on short notice, but the procedure involved the most advanced signal processing technology. Once in place, the delayed timing devices attached to any of the four pipelines could be accidentally triggered by the complex mix of ocean background noises throughout the heavily trafficked Baltic Sea—from near and distant ships, underwater drilling, seismic events, waves and even sea creatures. To avoid this, the sonar buoy, once in place, would emit a sequence of unique low frequency tonal sounds—much like those emitted by a flute or a piano—that would be recognized by the timing device and, after a pre-set hours of delay, trigger the explosives. (“You want a signal that is robust enough so that no other signal could accidentally send a pulse that detonated the explosives,” I was told by Dr. Theodore Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology and national security policy at MIT. Postol, who has served as the science adviser to the Pentagon’s Chief of Naval Operations, said the issue facing the group in Norway because of Biden’s delay was one of chance: “The longer the explosives are in the water the greater risk there would be of a random signal that would launch the bombs.”)

On September 26, 2022, a Norwegian Navy P8 surveillance plane made a seemingly routine flight and dropped a sonar buoy. The signal spread underwater, initially to Nord Stream 2 and then on to Nord Stream 1. A few hours later, the high-powered C4 explosives were triggered and three of the four pipelines were put out of commission. Within a few minutes, pools of methane gas that remained in the shuttered pipelines could be seen spreading on the water’s surface and the world learned that something irreversible had taken place.

FALLOUT

In the immediate aftermath of the pipeline bombing, the American media treated it like an unsolved mystery. Russia was repeatedly cited as a likely culprit, spurred on by calculated leaks from the White House—but without ever establishing a clear motive for such an act of self-sabotage, beyond simple retribution. A few months later, when it emerged that Russian authorities had been quietly getting estimates for the cost to repair the pipelines, the New York Times described the news as “complicating theories about who was behind” the attack. No major American newspaper dug into the earlier threats to the pipelines made by Biden and Undersecretary of State Nuland.

While it was never clear why Russia would seek to destroy its own lucrative pipeline, a more telling rationale for the President’s action came from Secretary of State Blinken.

Asked at a press conference last September about the consequences of the worsening energy crisis in Western Europe, Blinken described the moment as a potentially good one:

“It’s a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponization of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs. That’s very significant and that offers tremendous strategic opportunity for the years to come, but meanwhile we’re determined to do everything we possibly can to make sure the consequences of all of this are not borne by citizens in our countries or, for that matter, around the world.”

More recently, Victoria Nuland expressed satisfaction at the demise of the newest of the pipelines. Testifying at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing in late January she told Senator Ted Cruz, “Like you, I am, and I think the Administration is, very gratified to know that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you like to say, a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea.”

The source had a much more streetwise view of Biden’s decision to sabotage more than 1500 miles of Gazprom pipeline as winter approached. “Well,” he said, speaking of the President, “I gotta admit the guy has a pair of balls. He said he was going to do it, and he did.”

Asked why he thought the Russians failed to respond, he said cynically, “Maybe they want the capability to do the same things the U.S. did.

“It was a beautiful cover story,” he went on. “Behind it was a covert operation that placed experts in the field and equipment that operated on a covert signal.

“The only flaw was the decision to do it.”

 
Things were different back then and technology was different. Using that as a comparison is pretty dumb because it leaves out a lot of the details of what was going on back then. The countries involved all had capable militaries or built capable militaries. Russia does not have a capable military. If they did, they would have won or at least it would have gone differently than it has in Ukraine.

No one is going to use nuclear weapons. No one can do that without getting nuked back.
Since Russia doesn't have a capable military, there's nothing to worry about and Ukraine doesn't need any help. Your logic.
 
Yes totally Russia is going to lose any day now. it definitely is Russia that is in trouble not US hegemony. I read it in the New York Times.
I don't know what vatnigger alternate timeline you live in where the Russians are winning but in the real world the Russians are losing and hard. So hard that they are looking for alternative access to a warm water port because they know they will probably lose Crimea soon. They are working on gaining access to the Indian Ocean and bypassing the Suez Canal through Iran. These are not the actions of a country that is confident they are winning.

Quite literally the same shit that was said before the lead-up to both world wars in comparison to earlier conflicts.

And do I need to remind anyone here the stupidity of the assumption that nobody will use nukes because they'll be nuked back? If this assumption were true at all nobody would need nukes. Nobody would be trying to get nukes. If such a collective reasoning were present nuclear disarmament would've already happened. Moreover nobody would be panicking at the thought of Iran or NK getting nukes.

Or are you saying it's not an issue if Iran becomes capable of building nuclear ICBMs? I somehow doubt "it's different because ____" is along the lines of the response I'm going to get to this post.
But it's true. The Russian military is garbage. No one wants to start a major conflict over this, and the Russians can't fight one even if they wanted to and they know it. The situation back then was completely different. Most of the countries involved in WW1 and WW2 had capable militaries. Russia does not. If you can't even defeat a small poor regional power like Ukraine, your chances of fighting a conflict of a larger scale are nonexistent.

It's not stupid. It's how MAD works. It's worked that way since the 1950's and kept the US and the Soviet Union from using nuclear weapons even though they engaged in proxy wars across the world. Remember the nuclear wars that were started over Korea Vietnam and Afghanistan? Oh wait, that never happened.

Using Iran and North Korea as examples is just idiotic. They aren't even on the same level as Russia. People have been claiming Iran would get nuclear weapons for about 20+ years now and they never have. If they were legitimately trying, I am sure the US and probably Israel would stop them. Neocons only used the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons to stir up support for an invasion. North Korea probably already has a very small number of low yield nuclear weapons. No one is worried about North Korea using nuclear weapons. North Korea mainly wants them so they can sell them. That's the main concern. No one really believes North Korea will use their nuclear weapons if they have them. If they did, they wouldn't exist anymore. Iran is a bit different since they are theocracy. But even the concern about them is pretty low.
 
Sounds like a fun conspiracy to believe in. Might as well, right?

Someone mentioned trapped methane under the sea ice that exploded as the ice melts. Seems most probable as these weird methane explosions have been more common. https://youtu.be/zYhjYrzfVpM

But the conspiracy that the US did it is far more entertaining
That sounds like what LawDog Files speculated, only the explosions came from inside the pipes as they hadn't been used or properly maintained for a while. I have no idea if that's plausible or not, but the Russians did manage to blow up a nuclear reactor once so I could see them blowing up a couple pipes.
 
I found an article claiming that the Seymour Hershey article has some serious problems. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know to how accurate this guy is, but the objections he raised seemed reasonable


 
Since Russia doesn't have a capable military, there's nothing to worry about and Ukraine doesn't need any help. Your logic.
The Russians don't have a capable military compared to the US military. But after Ukraine they don't seem to have a capable military when compared to anyone. Against even a united Europe they wouldn't stand a chance.

Ukraine gets weapons because that's how proxy wars work. Wherever Russia or America invades another country they arm the enemy the other is fighting against. Why Russia expected Ukraine to be any different is beyond me. Russia went into Ukraine with a supposed advantage in equipment and vehicles. It was supposed to be a one sided fight. Which is why the US and other countries gave the Ukrainians the types of weapons needed for an insurgency. No one expected the Ukrainians to win.

If anything, arming the Ukrainians has worked in the Russians favor. It's caused them to lose a lot faster instead of the conflict dragging on for a decade with a guerilla style insurgency.

There is nothing to worry about for anyone other than Ukraine. But the Ukrainians didn't have the level of military equipment and vehicles the Russians did.
 
It's not even that though. There seems to just be a segment of the population who's bafflingly falling for the same bullshit that got us into the Forever Wars™ across the political compass.

Although it's even less justified, and both the current consequences as well as potential impacts for the public are several orders of magnitude worse.
Their current cope is "IF WE LET THE ORCS WIN THAT MEANS ANYONE THAT THREATENS TO NUKE PEOPLE WILL DO SO GUISE"
like jesus christ.
 
I found an article claiming that the Seymour Hershey article has some serious problems. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know to how accurate this guy is, but the objections he raised seemed reasonable


Seems legit, except I still think the florid prose and lack of research is more like Ludlum than Clancy.
 
I assume you're not a fan of driving drunk, playing golf in thunderstorms, or skydiving.

I say that because it's baffling that you could feel so certain in your rationalizations about nuclear war, and not realize it's the same kind of logic that gets people to do the above. People saying shit like "nUcLeAr WaR wOnT hApPeN" seem to not consider how absurd it is to risk such a thing at all no matter how low the chance may be.

If I had a button that had a one-in-five-million chance it would summon a meteorite of the sort that blasted the dinosaurs off the planet, or otherwise do nothing, I'd imagine you wouldn't press it. No sensible person would. It's the same shit here with both nukes and WW3.

Going through the motions of argumentation shows that this point is/was missed entirely. There's no real arguing this point or getting past it with rationalizations, either you're the kind of person who finds the chance of nuclear war/WW3 acceptable or you're not.
 
Going through the motions of argumentation shows that this point is/was missed entirely. There's no real arguing this point or getting past it with rationalizations, either you're the kind of person who finds the chance of nuclear war/WW3 acceptable or you're not.

This completely and utterly ignores the counterfactual argument, aka 'what would happen if there was no MAD'. We know what happens when there is no MAD. You have war. Every 15-25 years at most. Wars were only getting worse up until the invention of nuclear weapons. All of Europe tried to regulate warfare in the 19th and 20th centuries. Untold hours were spent arguing, rationalizing and debating the merits of peace over war. That all managed to extend the cycle of war and peace by about 10 years. Some people in Germany at the end of World War II were born before the Unification of Germany even occurred. Those people would've been able to tell you just how frequent, violent and bloody wars were becoming, and this was in an era widely considered as the most peaceful and stable Europe had ever been.

We have thousands of years of precedent telling us what happens without MAD. The data is unambiguous and impossible to discount. If nuclear weapons had never been invented, we would likely be in World War Five or more by now. The entire point of nuclear deterrence is that it removes the simple reality that at certain times, war between states is simply an extension of normal diplomacy. This was a reality accepted by all sides prior to MAD. War happened. War was inevitable. All diplomacy, all negotiation, all peaceful means of conflict resolution were just a stop-gap measure to allow competing national interests to recover enough to wage more war. When the Great War hit, nations rejoiced. People flocked to the recruitment stations. The war was a wonderful thing, a chance to let off steam, a chance to demonstrate national pride and ability, an opportunity to win accolades and earn stories of grandiose deeds to tell the grandchildren.

My point is that your argument is just wrong, on multiple levels. This is not a question of 'whether the chance of nuclear war is acceptable or not'. It never has been. The question has always been 'does MAD provide an acceptable alternative to the constant, bloody and disruptive wars that characterized the thousands of years of history before its invention?'. The answer to this is yes. Absolutely. There is no argument here. Your life and the life of everyone you love exists entirely because of MAD. Your freedom is based on MAD. If you willingly surrendered that, you are not saying 'I prefer peace over the prospect of annihilation', you are saying 'my life is worthless and I prefer living in a state where I can at any time be flung into an existential conflict of global scale, because I choose to embrace a geopolitical reality where there is nothing preventing my exploitation in this manner'.

That is the reality.
 
My point is that your argument is just wrong, on multiple levels. This is not a question of 'whether the chance of nuclear war is acceptable or not'. It never has been. The question has always been 'does MAD provide an acceptable alternative to the constant, bloody and disruptive wars that characterized the thousands of years of history before its invention?'. The answer to this is yes. Absolutely. There is no argument here. Your life and the life of everyone you love exists entirely because of MAD. Your freedom is based on MAD. If you willingly surrendered that, you are not saying 'I prefer peace over the prospect of annihilation', you are saying 'my life is worthless and I prefer living in a state where I can at any time be flung into an existential conflict of global scale, because I choose to embrace a geopolitical reality where there is nothing preventing my exploitation in this manner'.
Are you actually fucking retarded or is this a failure of your local education system? I'm not arguing against MAD or nuclear weapons you dipshit. Read that post and the one I made prior to it in full as many times as it takes for you to comprehend what I'm actually saying here.
 
Are you actually fucking retarded or is this a failure of your local education system? I'm not arguing against MAD or nuclear weapons you dipshit. Read that post and the one I made prior to it in full as many times as it takes for you to comprehend what I'm actually saying here.

It doesn't matter. Your argument is based on a misconception of a concept you then go on to use as a foundational point. What you are 'actually saying' is irrelevant.
 
It doesn't matter. Your argument is based on a misconception of a concept you then go on to use as a foundational point. What you are 'actually saying' is irrelevant.
You'd be correct if your illiterate ass actually understood what the fuck I was saying instead of making a point completely parallel to what I'm arguing.

I am not saying "NUCLEAR WEAPONS BAAAAAAAAD!". I'm saying that if a person wouldn't take the risk of driving drunk for their own safety as well as that of others, why the fuck would that same person be willing to risk nuclear exchange?

Holy fuck actually read you illiterate mongoloid. Reading comprehension fails from people continue to be the most annoying shit in this part of the website. I actually agree with most of what you said in the post I originally replied to as well.
 
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Holy fuck actually read you illiterate mongoloid.

When you can't make an argument based on actual facts instead of your own internally nonsensical ramblings that can be instantaneously identified as coming from a place of willful ignorance, you lose the right to demand I waste excess brainpower trying to discern your intent.
 
Slavnigger maintenance is damned near as bad as sandnigger maintenance. If I were Putin I'd be real hesitant to reach for the nuclear stick -- it'd be lethally embarrassing to try and launch a nuke and have it just... y'know, not work. Or worse.

That being said, nobody wants to address this: when did we start trusting (((journoscum))) when they tell us something we might agree with?
 
Slavnigger maintenance is damned near as bad as sandnigger maintenance. If I were Putin I'd be real hesitant to reach for the nuclear stick -- it'd be lethally embarrassing to try and launch a nuke and have it just... y'know, not work. Or worse.

That being said, nobody wants to address this: when did we start trusting (((journoscum))) when they tell us something we might agree with?

Trusting a (((journalist))) might not a good idea.

However Biden himself proclaimed wanting to do something about that pipeline and doubled down on it, when pressed on the pipeline.

And the mainstream opposition to this piece, are basically journalists moonlighting as unpaid employees for the Department of Defense, who lied to Trump during his administration many times.

This piece would have more scrutiny if Biden himself hadn't aggressively talked about stopping that pipeline. And a denial from his administration so fast, usually means Biden messed up somewhere.
 
Trusting a (((journalist))) might not a good idea.

However Biden himself proclaimed wanting to do something about that pipeline and doubled down on it, when pressed on the pipeline.

And the mainstream opposition to this piece, are basically journalists moonlighting as unpaid employees for the Department of Defense, who lied to Trump during his administration many times.

This piece would have more scrutiny if Biden himself hadn't aggressively talked about stopping that pipeline. And a denial from his administration so fast, usually means Biden messed up somewhere.
True -- but it's Biden we're talking about here. Spongebrains Shitspants himself.

It's hard to tell how much of what comes out of his mouth is real, dementia, or something he's repeating from his staff.

Eh. Regardless, the U.S.'s rep is mud. We're being led by absolute retards at this point.
 
Given Biden's intemperate outbursts and the routine military presence in that area, it would be very easy to construct a scenario after the fact where Biden ordered the pipelines' demolition. Some of the pieces are there, and we can make up clandestine actors to fill in the rest of the squares on the board. But there's no proof of those clandestine actors or activities, nor any connective tissue linking the elements we do know about to the events. Hersh's attempt to describe a covert-action-that-ain't is baffling; it confuses, rather than reveals, the motivations behind these actions.

If the story is true, I'd love to see real evidence emerge and get a full accounting. But if I wanted to plant a false story, I'd find an elderly reporter on the outs with the US government and considered iffy by his publishers, feed him a fantastic story with few facts (though Hersh apparently didn't check the ones he had), and set him up with a Substack account. After all, you can blame whatever you want on the CIA; they're not going to show you proof that they didn't do something. All you need is a name to publish the story.
 
Seems legit, except I still think the florid prose and lack of research is more like Ludlum than Clancy.
Yeah, Tom Clancy actually did a lot of research and was very knowledgeable on technical matters. IIRC after Submarine got published the Feds paid him a visit to see if anyone had been talking to him because he had made some educated guesses about capabilities that were a lot closer to the mark than they were comfortable with.
 
I found an article claiming that the Seymour Hershey article has some serious problems. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know to how accurate this guy is, but the objections he raised seemed reasonable


A lot of this is information that was discussed at the time, making a mockery of the idea that there was sabotage by a western actor, or even sabotage at all. Hersh has recycled a bunch of already disproven claims (as in, physically impossible actions carried out by non-existent ships), embellished them with superfluous details to make them sound more believable, and attributed it all to a single, anonymous source.

That last detail is important. Too many people are jumping on this as absolute proof, when they'd normally scoff at a story based on a single, anonymous source as an obvious fake. It's like an inverse of the gell-man amnesia effect; scepticism disappears when the story favours your own point of view.
 
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