Hyperinflation

[Rich Evans Apologist]

You don't want a roaring 20's anyway because that was a prelude to the Great Depression, and the New Deal, like the Green New Deal would, actually prolonged it.

It was a prelude in a much more unstable global financial situation without as many release valves for all of the growth and energy. Given the US's population growth, if there were a second Roaring 20s and its gains were not gobbled up by the upper 20% of earners, the results could be staggering. Real wages tend to grow considerably after pandemics, and so you could see real growth in earning/purchasing power - which feeds into more demand and activity in other sectors. With even just the singular pressure valve release of the interest rate, the economy could also be kept from overheating as it did in the 1920s, even if an eventual correction would be inevitable.

Broadly speaking, there's more indicators pointing towards optimism than pessimism the very instant you dismiss reductive comparisons to Weimar. That isn't to say that picking up assets or diversifying is a bad idea - just do so without the doomer mindset. Maybe rethink going whole hog on the jesus-bunker-buckets.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

It was a prelude in a much more unstable global financial situation without as many release valves for all of the growth and energy. Given the US's population growth, if there were a second Roaring 20s and its gains were not gobbled up by the upper 20% of earners, the results could be staggering. Real wages tend to grow considerably after pandemics, and so you could see real growth in earning/purchasing power - which feeds into more demand and activity in other sectors. With even just the singular pressure valve release of the interest rate, the economy could also be kept from overheating as it did in the 1920s, even if an eventual correction would be inevitable.

So even grocery store workers will gain purchasing power? Wouldn't the minimum wage be an incentive to keep wages where they are?

 

[Aqua Panda]

Anyone else reading up on the Japanese market collapse of the 90's and seeing a LOT of eerie similarities? (Sky high speculative housing markets and growing inflation everywhere.)

I went grocery shopping the other day and just about everything has noticeably jumped. Either full dollar amounts or to x.99 when they where x.50 or below before. Even shit tier stuff like energy drinks are now like $3 a can. Gasoline is now also at $3 a gallon or higher. (80 cent jump over the last few months.)

And to be clear, I don't think we are going to see true hyperinflation. However, normal inflation is going up and we are at the point were it is noticeable by the general public, but there hasn't been major pushback yet. Some retail/food jobs are having problems sourcing labor right now because they refuse to raise wages to attract more people. Current unemployment actually pays better than what people were making beforehand.

If this keeps up we are going to see big pressure for companies to raise wages. Obviously most will try as hard as possible kicking and screaming to prevent this. People able to hop jobs will shop around and companies need to be careful not to bleed talent.

 

[Bill The Fucker]

Broadly speaking, there's more indicators pointing towards optimism than pessimism the very instant you dismiss reductive comparisons to Weimar. That isn't to say that picking up assets or diversifying is a bad idea - just do so without the doomer mindset. Maybe rethink going whole hog on the jesus-bunker-buckets.

People have good reason to be exceedingly cautious. We're hitting the kind of P/E ratios that precede a sharp contraction (and climbing), and everything is currently fueled by speculation. Cryptos across the board jumping to the levels they currently are is one of the biggest and clearest red flags you could ask for.

 

[Rich Evans Apologist]

So even grocery store workers will gain purchasing power? Wouldn't the minimum wage be an incentive to keep wages where they are?

Spoiler: savin u space

If the economy behaves like it has after other pandemics, yes. The minimum wage has a lot of flaws as a concept, and one of them is what you're suggesting - in "fixed" labor markets, where there is a steady and constant stream of supply, it can work to allow companies to essentially "fix" their wages at the low amount. You see that in fast food. But I remember back in around 2015-2016, Target made some headlines by raising its wages to $9.15 an hour -- and the reason was just that it wanted to attract better workers and keep them from shuffling to somewhere else.

Part of the reason that wages rise after pandemics is that for for a lot of jobs, people are less willing to work them for fear of infection: less supply means employers need to pump wages to fill vacancies. Another is that once the band-aid is ripped off and things open up, you can have that roaring growth which means labor outstrips supply - and gets employers desperate to fill positions, like the McDonalds paying people $50 just to show up for a job interview.

Not necessarily infallible - location still matters quite a lot in terms of your expected wages (so too your expected cost of living), and there are some distinctions to this pandemic relative to others. In more deadly pandemics, more people being dead = more job openings & more money to go around to fewer people, which will be more muted in the US. As well, so much of commerce moving to the internet is different, and could have repercussions for the amount of labor demand - just a few amazon or jet warehouses could suffice where before you'd have a whole plethora of brick & mortar. If the fed behaves stupidly and tries to tax people under the 400k mark, it could hamstring the growth and turn it into lopsided gain for the elite. But there's still a glimmer that this could be a good point in time to exist in.

People have good reason to be exceedingly cautious. We're hitting the kind of P/E ratios that precede a sharp contraction (and climbing), and everything is currently fueled by speculation. Cryptos across the board jumping to the levels they currently are is one of the biggest and clearest red flags you could ask for.

Spoiler: who even likes economics i mean i fucking love rick and morty isnt that enough

Cryptos go back how far? It could be that a bunch of normal people have started buying them, and more savvy sorts are pumping the crypto before an inevitable dump and pocketing a nice profit for their trouble. I don't see them necessarily as a useful bellweather just yet, because they've been around for too little and they've been too niche until recently.

Price-earning ratio I agree a little with more on, barring that the stock market overheating doesn't necessarily have to lead to some hypercolapse. If companies depend on those high share prices to function, there might be concern if they begin hemorrhaging their price to more adequately match the earning capability. Though even there, part of the ratio being so high can reflect overly-optimistic beliefs about how the stock will perform in the years to come -- so you could see a correction, even a sharp one, in the stock market while the labor/jobs market steams ahead as it was always going to.

With that in mind, I don't think being bearish is the wrong stance. Lots of shit is being speculated to hell and back right now, so being bullish on that stuff seems misguided; I just don't necessarily think the correction will outpace the joie de vivre. Whether there's explosive growth or a piddle or even a slowdown, picking up steadier assets and reasonably-priced stocks is certainly a safer bet than throwing your cash at a fucking tesla stock.

 

[Bill The Fucker]

Spoiler: who even likes economics i mean i fucking love rick and morty isnt that enough

Cryptos go back how far? It could be that a bunch of normal people have started buying them, and more savvy sorts are pumping the crypto before an inevitable dump and pocketing a nice profit for their trouble. I don't see them necessarily as a useful bellweather just yet, because they've been around for too little and they've been too niche until recently.

I think they're an excellent bellweather for speculation, although I do agree they're not necessarily a precursor to a market collapse. I wouldn't have even thought too much about them if it was just BTC rocketing up, as that has actually had some substantial development in the financial space over the last year. But when Dogecoin of all things jumps 120x, it's clear that the people behind the wheel aren't looking ahead long term.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Crypto really is the wild card in all of this. If you look at their trend line they are pumping just like any other speculative asset. The price of Ethereum on the year has tracked pretty closely to the price of Steel for example.


1 year trend line


3 year trend line

This indicates pretty strongly the market still views Cryptos in the Asset and Commodities class rather then the Money class. Which would mean in an inflation scenario their price will continue to increase as people dump their money to secure assets to hedge against the inflation. The wild card in all of this is that if the inflation coincides to a market crash alot of commodities and assets get creamed as people move to safety. In the last crash this was definitely NOT Cryptocurrencies so survey says Crypto won't be immune either. But that could also have changed. Its just to new to be sure.

 

[Puff]

I saw that same scenario, but with a few minor changes. Each major corporation has its own crypto, tradable on the free market. Microsoft wagies get paid in Microsoft bucks, Apple wagies get paid in Apple bucks, etc. Due to that the wagies are incentivized to work harder and to promote their corporation even outside of work, as any increase to the value of their corp crypto will directly increase their buying power. Congratulations, you just turned regular wagies into 24/7 shill machines.

Also, who wants to bet it will be Estonia first?

I'm not against this and I'm not sure why.

 

[mindlessobserver]

I'm not against this and I'm not sure why.

Its a good idea in theory. But if the Company goes bankrupt so too are your life savings.

 

[Rich Evans Apologist]

But when Dogecoin of all things jumps 120x, it's clear that the people behind the wheel aren't looking ahead long term.

Yeah, that one blowing up around the time of the GME stocks is why I think it's a lot of normies rushing in that heard about the guy who bought seven-gazillion dogecoin and now that it's 1/7th of a cent or something he's a bajillionaire. Doge 100% seems like a pump and dump before the zenith, but I obviously can't apply that to btc/eth/whatever just yet.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

Crypto really is the wild card in all of this. If you look at their trend line they are pumping just like any other speculative asset. The price of Ethereum on the year has tracked pretty closely to the price of Steel for example.

View attachment 2150354
1 year trend line

View attachment 2150356
3 year trend line

This indicates pretty strongly the market still views Cryptos in the Asset and Commodities class rather then the Money class. Which would mean in an inflation scenario their price will continue to increase as people dump their money to secure assets to hedge against the inflation. The wild card in all of this is that if the inflation coincides to a market crash alot of commodities and assets get creamed as people move to safety. In the last crash this was definitely NOT Cryptocurrencies so survey says Crypto won't be immune either. But that could also have changed. Its just to new to be sure.

They should make a crypto called "Beanie Babies".

Doge 100% seems like a pump and dump before the zenith, but I obviously can't apply that to btc/eth/whatever just yet.

Doge is a joke currency that has no controls or stop gaps, it's literally a waste of money. Could be good for deflation, though.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

They should make a crypto called "Beanie Babies".

That's pretty much what NFTs are.

 

[WhiteLivesMatter]

This is all part of the Great Reset engineered by Karl (((Schwab))). When inflation happens you will own nothing, and you will be happy.

Thank God we have guns in red America.

 

[LatinasAreTheFuture]

So dollars are being printed at a similar rate that foreigners are buying them? So what’s the problem?

 

[irishAzoth]

keynesians are the devil

 

[Beavis]

Anyone else reading up on the Japanese market collapse of the 90's and seeing a LOT of eerie similarities? (Sky high speculative housing markets and growing inflation everywhere.)

I went grocery shopping the other day and just about everything has noticeably jumped. Either full dollar amounts or to x.99 when they where x.50 or below before. Even shit tier stuff like energy drinks are now like $3 a can. Gasoline is now also at $3 a gallon or higher. (80 cent jump over the last few months.)

And to be clear, I don't think we are going to see true hyperinflation. However, normal inflation is going up and we are at the point were it is noticeable by the general public, but there hasn't been major pushback yet. Some retail/food jobs are having problems sourcing labor right now because they refuse to raise wages to attract more people. Current unemployment actually pays better than what people were making beforehand.

If this keeps up we are going to see big pressure for companies to raise wages. Obviously most will try as hard as possible kicking and screaming to prevent this. People able to hop jobs will shop around and companies need to be careful not to bleed talent.

What do you think the flood of immigrants is for? They’ll work for shit wages and gladly take abuse.

 

[knobslobbin]

lol yeah no. Nice try though!

 

[tulskij_tochnyj]

lol yeah no. Nice try though!
View attachment 2150860

I HATE THE ANITCHRIST! I HATE THE ANTICHRIST!

 

[knobslobbin]

@secret watcher

 

[wtfNeedSignUp]

A question about the housing market - Shouldn't the price of houses rise if there is an increase in the population that can actually afford to live in them? There is the problem of the population decreasing in western countries, the fact that the middle class only grows smaller, and the Corona promoting the situation of working from home. So who the fuck would buy that overpriced house? Alejandro and Latisha with their government gibs?