Let's wargame this a bit. Let's say "the people" (translation: Republican voters in a very narrow demographic, either out of work or in low paying jobs; because outside of that demographic you get the "I just need to shut up and not get fired, I have a mortgage to pay" crowd) get fed up and take up arms. Literally form armed gangs that roamed streets.
Who will they shoot first? Let's say that the police are slow to show up and they can pick any target they want. Who? Politicians? Okay, where do they live? Hmmm, gated community, sounds like they won't make it past the gate and even if they do their target will be evacuated ahead of time. And if the target IS there, and they are able to take them alive... then what? What's the plan? ISIS style hostage video? Gonna hold them ransom, not gonna give them back until the elites step down or something?
The police themselves? Yeah, that's great optics. I'm sure the military will join you at that point.
Business leaders? Very tankie of you!
How about their rivals, Antifa types? We all know how well the Proud Boys do, after all!
There is no scenario that leads to the police, military, and financial powers rubbing their chins and saying "Hey, this looks like a group I should get behind".
Okay, state secession. That's a bit more lucid. But here's the rub, there's federal property all over the place in Texas and so forth. Military bases with troops from all over America, led by career officers who are more interested in going from O3 pay grade to O4 than anything else. So what's going to happen? National guard surrounds the military bases? Okay, let's say that happens and the federal troops get the hell out of there - and maybe there's some defections too. Okay, smart guy, what next? Gonna invade neighboring states? Gonna wait for the federal government to come reclaim the state capitol by force? This ain't 1860, they'll be there within a week. What's the plan here?
Sorry, but this doesn't play out well. It's almost as if the whole system since 1865 has been designed to crush another rebellion or something... weird.