November 12, 2022
Is there a way for the Iranian regime to survive?
By
Hassan Mahmoudi
For almost two months, Iranian citizens have been protesting the mullahs. The question now is whether the mullahs have viable options for maintaining their power while dealing with the protesters. I offer three possible strategies the mullahs might contemplate. The first two are unlikely to work, but the third does provide a path…if the mullahs are willing to respond to the Iranian people’s demands (e.g., political, economic, social, etc.). Their recent history, though, indicates that they are unlikely to do so.
The current nationwide uprising in Iran didn’t come from nowhere. In the 13 years, there have been several uprisings, with the most recent in 2017 and 2019. In each case, the mullahs responded brutally, burning their bridges when it came to a negotiated peace with their own people. They have trapped themselves, and the people know it.
Since the latest protests began, the regime’s top officials have insisted that the protests have ended or will end soon—but the evidence says otherwise. With every day that passes since the beginning of the Iranians’ nationwide uprising, it becomes larger in terms of numbers, geographic reach, and protester courage. When the government kills protesters, people do not leave the streets, they only become angrier and more determined.
Given protests more serious than any the mullahs have faced before, what options do the mullahs have? This post examines three possible strategies that the Iranian regime can follow to end the protests.