when was the last time a secretary of anything went on to become president?
trump no, obama no, w bush no (cheney vp, sec of defense), clinton no, hw bush no (DCI debatable), reagan no, carter no, ford no, nixon no, johnson no, etc etc. Secretary of State being a shoe-in for nomination / election hasn't applied in half of a century to a century. there aren't a lot of trends with the modern moment either: bush was the son of a former president, obama was a dark horse, trump was the darkest horse you've ever seen, then biden is some old insider former VP / chronically-in-washington guy. permeation of the internet has shattered old maxims that had been buckling since 2008 anyways
I also completely forgot butty did well in the early primaries. I don't really pay attention to those anymore. Iowa isn't really purple and its caucus doesn't reflect the nation-at-large, nor does in general any of the new england ones. I'm speaking wholly from the fact that he got creamed-but by the two lead frontrunners, Sanders and Biden. Third for a complete nobody was impressive. And both of those guys are getting put in a home (I hope). It's true that he had bad rep with people of brown in the country,
as this article details, but it's also true that Warren (and people like Booker) weren't doing any better, and his move to step out even before super tuesday may have helped to curry a lot of favor with the party apparatchiks. That's why I keep an eye on him, the party still has strong brokers and (until abrams or an at-current-unknown steps up to bat) he remains the best of the worst. note this is not saying he stands much of a chance in 2024, I just more think the party isn't DONE FOREVER as I've heard so many times in so many elections in my entirely too long brief stint on this earth
but on hilldog, clinton's
2016 performance among basketball-americans was only marginally better than al freakin' gore, marginally worse than john freakin' kerry, and really really bad among younger blacks (african americans are
younger on average than the US as a whole). Plus, she lost to cheetos hitler - I just can't see her as a pick again. Even moderate people I know who were ostensibly enthusiastic about her groan at the suggestion, and republicans have broadly coalesced around Trump while democrats still have a strong wing that hates the shit out of her guts. anti-trump republicans have either been primaried or retired before they got primaried, leaving the group with a narrow but focused demographic that could easily exploit more
classic democratic infighting