That all makes sense, for sure, no disagreements. The only thing that gives me pause is that I tend to imagine successful predators as being relatively discreet, sometimes to the point of evading detection for decades or until after they die. It seems like JY literally cannot help himself from creating an ever expanding internet footprint of him explicitly discussing his fetish in really dumb and sloppy ways to anyone who'll listen. That's the only thing that doesn't add up in my mind. Like, he really seems to lack basic theory of mind and seems like he may actually not understand that the odds of him happening upon a pubescent girl suddenly realizing they're having their first period and being unprepared.. and him being within sight of said girl... and being the first person she turns to, a bizarre totally non-passing troon in a 2 sizes too small dress, vs. silently seeking out her parent or guardian... and being able to show them how to use it without anyone coming into the bathroom and immediately intervening or calling the cops... are completely non existent. Like, this is a guy dumb enough to have sincerely attempted to create "National Sex Day" as a college-age adult in the hopes of getting some.
I'm not sure how much directly detailing his fantasies he does to people anymore, seems like that phase might be over, but even in the face of mounting evidence and exposés being posted across multiple venues online, Oger even pressing eject, he still cannot resist the urge to rant about tampons on twitter, or town hall meetings, etc. and does nothing to help his case except for shout transphobia and get people banned from twitter.
Now, the odds of this go up a few points if he actually is working around girls and has more private situations available + consistent access to the same girls to enable a grooming process. But by now any employer who puts people in positions of trust around other's kids and would do a background check would do a quick google and NOPE right the fuck out of there. I have to imagine any parent who's met JY if he actually is supervising kids has their guard up, it just doesn't seem like he's charismatic in any way IRL to make up for his bizarre appearance, neon-red-flag internet presence, etc. and be able to deceive anyone - or for that matter, establish an actual mentor-type relationship with a young girl, since all of his concept of young girls is rooted in sexual fantasies and shallow stereotypes, and doesn't have the ability to sincerely relate with their life experience. As far as I can see, he mostly communicates with young girls strictly on a basis of initial pleasantries that soon devolve into harassment and/or bathroom talk behind the safety of his keyboard.
Again, it could be thought that he's actually dumb enough to think that all his troon grandstanding and litigation and campaigning is the perfect way to commit the perfect crime, even with an ever larger amount of eyes on him and diminishing benefit-of-doubt, even from the troon community which is essentially an eternal fountain of benefit-of-doubt.
Of course, all this said, that doesn't rule out a hamfisted, clumsy, and successful attempt at IRL molestation. Sigh.
And of course, the legal precedents that are allowing him to get even as far as he has, open the door for someone who's not a completely obvious lunatic to more easily achieve goals like JY has.
