Disaster Magma tunnel under Grindavík - eruption likely - Iceland about to explode

Summary:

At seven o'clock on Friday morning, an earthquake began at Sundhnúka crater, which is about three kilometres northeast of Grindavík. It gradually increased, and by afternoon it became clear that something unusual was happening.

Just before six o'clock last night, a Level of Danger was declared and the residents of Grindavík were asked to pay close attention to all information.

At 11pm, it was revealed that data from the Icelandic Met Office indicated that a magma tunnel had extended under Grindavík. Civil Defence subsequently decided to evacuate the town. There were indications that a considerable amount of magma was moving - significantly more than had been seen in previous volcanic eruptions at Fagradalsfjall.

All of this is part of a chain of events that began almost four years ago when a series of earthquakes began near the mountain Þorbjörn, which indicated that something unusual was afoot. During that time, four magma tunnels have formed. Three of them have erupted.

South Iceland's Volcano and Natural Hazards Group says on its Facebook page that land movement has been on a very large scale. Meters at Festarfjall and Svartsengi have moved apart from each other by a full 120 centimetres. The group believes that the magma tunnel could be twelve kilometres long.

Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, professor of geophysics, says "There is a lot of uncertainty about how big this will be on the surface and where exactly it would erupt if it did."

Páll Einarsson, professor emeritus in geophysics, says "Considering the intensity, it must be considered probable that there will be an eruption from this magma tunnel, but it is impossible to say where and how long that fissure will be."

Latest update

The probability of an eruption has increased, and it cannot be assumed that there will be significant notice in the form of measurable turbulence before an eruption begins.

These are the views of scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office, after a 6pm status meeting with the University of Iceland and Civil Defence.

The extent of the magma tunnel is significant and magma is approaching the surface. The corridor is 15 kilometers long and has a depth of 800 meters where the magma is shallow.

However, it must be noted that the scientists' calculations are based on twelve-hour-old satellite data. The corridor now extends all the way from Kálfellsheiði in the north-southwest of Grindavík and out to sea.

"Based on this, it can be concluded that there is a significant chance that magma will manage to break its way to the surface. There is also an increased chance that magma can emerge on the seabed," says the Met Office.

Obviously this is not a concluded news story but an ongoing event, live updates are here.

Webcams

Facing south from Mt. Þorbjörn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sZzBotLUU4

Similar placement, slightly zoomed in: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9QEbirKQx4

Facing north: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAQzsB9ev9Q

MBL live stream, also on Mt. Þorbjörn, pointed directly at the Svartsengi power station: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1e_MWJ1nQc

Multiview camera here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=804nPrAUAxg

Another new camera, different angle. This is pointed west: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yEIpKay8Hg

Pointed towards Grindavík: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAQzsB9ev9Q
 
Meters at Festarfjall and Svartsengi have moved apart from each other by a full 120 centimetres.
Jesus Christ, that's only a lot alarming. When you have geology moving at human scales in human timespans, bad things tend to happen. At least it only has a few thousand residents in the area, so it shouldn't be hard to get folks out.
 
Map of earthquakes of magnitude 3 or greater in the last 48 hours.

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Reactions: frozen_runner
Jesus Christ, that's only a lot alarming. When you have geology moving at human scales in human timespans, bad things tend to happen. At least it only has a few thousand residents in the area, so it shouldn't be hard to get folks out.
It also has the Svartsengi power station which, as well as leccy, supplies heat to 30,000 people through the district heating system. Winter is coming.
 
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