UN Philippines will go to war with China if it crosses ‘red lines’ and claims disputed resources

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...pines-rodrigo-duterte-will-go-war-china-if-it

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The Philippines has warned China that it will go to war over natural resources in the South China Sea – and it identified other “red lines”, or actions, Manila would find unacceptable, the foreign ministry said on Monday.

Foreign Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano said that among the territorial issues discussed with China were construction activities at a disputed shoal and the unilateral extraction of oil and gas in the South China Sea.

“Nobody can extract natural resources there on their own,” Cayetano said. “The president has declared that. If anyone gets the natural resources in the West Philippine Sea-South China Sea, he will go to war.”

Critics and left-wing groups have slammed President Rodrigo Duterte for not publicly raising the alarm over recent Chinese actions, including the reported installation of missile defence systems on its newly constructed islands.

They say he should demand immediate Chinese compliance with a 2016 arbitration court ruling that invalidated Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea and upheld the Philippines’ sovereign rights to exploit resources in vast stretches of waters off its western coast.

“For those who keep saying, ‘File a protest, file a protest,’ what do we mean when we said, ‘We are taking all diplomatic actions’?” Cayetano said in a flag-raising ceremony at the Department of Foreign Affairs on Monday.

“At the right time, we will prove you wrong because nothing is secret forever,” Cayetano said. “When we declassify all of these, once we have achieved our purposes in the future, you will see that the DFA has not fallen short in filing whatever diplomatic action, note verbale, verbal protest.”

After Duterte appointed him as the country’s top diplomat last year, Cayetano said the Philippines and China had discussed the thorny territorial issues, including actions that each deemed unacceptable.

For the Philippines, these included any Chinese construction at disputed Scarborough Shoal or Chinese efforts to remove a rusty Philippine navy ship used by Filipino marines as a detachment in another contested outcrop, Second Thomas Shoal.

“Filipino troops should not be harassed while on resupply missions or when repairing [facilities] like a runway,” he said.

China has told the Philippines that there should be no new occupation of uninhabited areas under a 2002 accord and “we should not embarrass each other in front of all, in all multilaterals and bilaterals”, he said.

After taking power nearly two years ago, Duterte declared he would chart a foreign policy not highly oriented toward the United States, the country’s treaty ally. He took steps to revive frosty ties with Beijing while seeking to boost Chinese trade, investment and infrastructure funds.

Cayetano has staunchly defended the tough-talking president, including his deadly crackdown on illegal drugs.

“It is not the policy of this administration to engage in megaphone or microphone diplomacy, and announce each and every action, unless announcing it is beneficial to us,” Cayetano said.

Filipino fishermen have been accosted by China in the past but have been allowed back to Scarborough Shoal’s area to fish.

The shoal’s vast lagoon has been declared off limits to all fishermen to nurture fishery stocks, and a coastguard agreement now allows vessels to enter the lagoon for safety in stormy weather, Cayetano said.

Critics say Duterte’s approach has emboldened China, which has been increasingly assertive in the potentially oil- and gas-rich waterway that’s also claimed entirely or in part by Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei.
 
This is a confrontation between a tiny country where the citizens have balls the size of grapefruits and an enormous country where the inhabitants have balls the size of sesame seeds.

It's actually not as risky as it seems. China does not yet really have the means to project power across open water to the degree necessary to resolve a military conflict with the Philippines. They are close to it, but not yet there. China can do some missile strikes but is limited in actual air support for any operations near the Philippines. Their artificial island airstrips would be the first thing lost should a conflict begin.
 
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It's actually not as risky as it seems. China does not yet really have the means to project power across open water to the degree necessary to resolve a military conflict with the Philippines. They are close to it, but not yet there. China can do some missile strikes but is limited in actual air support for any operations near the Philippines. Their artificial island airstrips would be the first thing lost should a conflict begin.

I also don't even really believe that they want to. China has historically been concerned with areas directly adjacent to their land. Not random shit at sea. Obviously, they'd like to grab it if they could. I don't think they're willing to go to war about it, and the Philippines saying bring it, bitch is probably going to end this.

I know, :optimistic:
 
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So is china gonna nuke based durterte or are they gonna risk a "clean" war
 
So is china gonna nuke based durterte or are they gonna risk a "clean" war

My wild guess? They're going to back down, somehow, while continuing to maintain their utterly illegal claims that are completely contrary to the law of the sea and have been shot down by every international tribunal ever to look at them.

Fucking chinks.
 
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Well at least if there's peace in Korea we'll still have a place to pawn off military hardware!
 
The Philippines could actually win if they manage to convince other ASEAN nations like Indonesia and Singapore to support them. Especially Singapore. Go look at the wiki page for the Singapore navy right now. Those guys know how important sea trade is to their survival and they have dumped resources into their navy in the same way Israel does it's Army. If Indonesia piles on too the Chinese Navy is in deep shit, because that is way more naval tonnage then they have. After that the Phillippines has the Army and Marine forces to clear those Islands.

Yeah it's :optimistic:, but it is not outside the realm of possibility. Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malyasia are not happy with what China is doing in that region.
 
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The Philippines could actually win if they manage to convince other ASEAN nations like Indonesia and Singapore to support them. Especially Singapore. Go look at the wiki page for the Singapore navy right now. Those guys know how important sea trade is to their survival and they have dumped resources into their navy in the same way Israel does it's Army. If Indonesia piles on too the Chinese Navy is in deep shit, because that is way more naval tonnage then they have. After that the Phillippines has the Army and Marine forces to clear those Islands.

Yeah it's :optimistic:, but it is not outside the realm of possibility. Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malyasia are not happy with what China is doing in that region.

Exactly. Add to that that at this stage China does not have many friends in the neighborhood. While they all wish good trade relations with China that ends at the point of China invading and stealing their territory. Or seeking to interdict sea trade. None of these nations could survive a land war with China for a protracted period (well okay Vietnam has, 2-3 times) But China lacks the ability currently to sufficiently project enough power by sea in order to effect what they wish. Add to that the hugeproblem with their population. China would have difficulty fighting any war that is not specifically designed to protect the Chinese homeland. Troops dying in the Philippines means for every bullet Duerte fires a Chinese Family ends. That is the consequence of One Child.
 
Yeah, China has no force projection and its entirely dependant on sea trade. You need to think of thrm as an Island, as their land borders are closed by war zones, deserts and mountains. All their industry and trade relies on the ocean. If Singpore and Malaysia close the straights of Malacca the Chinese economy will collapse in 2 weeks. And there would be nothing they could do about it. If they tried to deploy their fleet to reopen the sea lanes they would get spanked hard. Their navy cannot operate outside the air umbrella of the Mainland based air force
 
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The Philippine Navy flagship is a 50 year old ex-USCG cutter whose only armament is a 3" deck gun. It's a goddamn joke.

If they want to stand a chance they are going to need a lot of help. The PLAN is pretty shit but it's a hell of a lot better than three aging WHECs.
 
Call me :optimistic: but there are a few instances of tiny shit armies that have defeated superpower militaries before. If China does get its ass handed to them (long shot I know) it would absolutely destroy Xi' dreams and China's reputation as a superpower. If the Philippines manage to get some Chinese mainland territory I'd say let them have it. I really hope that someone gets China to knock off the South China Sea disputes, a lot of countries are gonna get fucked up if they don't stop.
 
Many of those stories about plucky underdogs winning battles they have no business winning are good stories, but they are just that stories. When you actually get down into the nitty gritty you find things the Military likes to call "force multipliers". Take the gold standard, the battle of Marathon where the Athenians spanked the Persians. Impossible. Yet the Athenians Army had the phalanx run by dudes in Bronze armor. The Persians had conscripts wearing no armour and having wicker shields. Literally cloth and straw. Now a wicker shield may stop an arrow, but it ain't going to do shit to a spear that is three times as long as the little pointed stick that soldier is holding. The Athenians slaughtered them. It was not even a contest. And the idiots learned nothing from it, and got slaughtered again at Thermopylae and then by Alexander who put them out of their misery.

Off on a tangent...the point is technology and terrain are just as important, if not MORE important then shear numbers. Which is why the Philippines is boned if it' alone. It' navy is shit. Inexcusably shit for an Island nation. However it's neighbors navies are decidedly not shit. Indonesia, and Singapore in particular. If the Philippines goes in alone they are screwed. If Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Malaysia back them up this will be a real party.

China would have at most, 1 month to defeat the Southeast Asian coalition. Beyond that threshold they will begin to run out of oil. China has precious little domestic oil production. Certainly not enough to keep the lights on. The vast majority of their oil comes in from the Middle East via the Straights of Mallaca and the transit hub of, you guessed it, Singapore. Even worse, what domestic production they do have is largely concentrated in the conflict zone itself and could be taken out by a few idiots in a row boat if that row boat happens to have a missile launcher on it. Singapore and the rest would not even have to commit to a decisive battle. China would HAVE to take the fight to them. And that is just not in the cards. It's open question if they could cross the Taiwan Straights and win. The idea that they could send a force all the way down to Singapore and force them to reopen the trade lanes is absurd. They would be asking for a fiasco.
 
Yet the "illegal" islands now have missile emplacements. If the tribunal has no methods to enforce its' ruling, than it is meaningless.

Do they really care about the missiles, though? That's strategic shit. I think they care about the natural resources. I think my country (the U.S.) cares more about the missiles than the Philippines does. I think the Philippines is concerned with the oil, fish, and other stuff. I may be oversimplifying, but my basic impression is they're saying these mineral and aquatic resources and stuff belong to them and they're willing to fight over that.

Is there anything remotely useful about the actual islands other than places to put missiles?
 
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Sounds like Cannon films President Duterte is going from blasting druggies to blasting commie invaders this year.
 
I hope these animals don't find a way to get Western nations caught up in their exceptional shit. The US has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, but that shouldn't apply if they start shit with China.

China is the one starting shit by claiming the entirety of the North-Philippine sea.
 
Is there anything remotely useful about the actual islands other than places to put missiles?
Because you can claim the waters around it as territorial waters (and the minerals are resources within that area). And the missiles enforce it. Just China pulling a fast one and seeing what sticks.
 
http://news.abs-cbn.com/focus/05/29/18/philippines-upgrades-navy-amid-chinese-maritime-threat

Philippines upgrades navy amid Chinese maritime threat
Ronron Calunsod, Kyodo News
Posted at May 29 2018 08:15 PM
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Japan Maritime Self Defense Force ships JS Harusame and the JS Amigiri with the BRP Ramon Alcaraz of the Philippine Navy during a joint naval exercise in the West Philippine Sea in 2015. Agence France-Presse/Philippine Navy handout/file photo
The Philippine Navy is one of the weakest maritime defense forces in Southeast Asia, leaving the sprawling island nation of over 100 million people vulnerable to threats like China's assertiveness in taking control of disputed territory, according to senior officers, including the top commander.

"A few days ago, we were surprised by the reports that the Chinese have embedded anti-ship missiles and anti-air missiles in three critical island features -- Subi, Fiery Cross and Mischief Reefs," a Philippine naval officer told a maritime security seminar in Manila in May.

He went on to say the "logical next step" was deployment of J-11 strike aircraft with a range of 1,500 kilometers, bringing almost the entire Philippine archipelago within striking distance.

"We have to upgrade the capability of the Philippine Navy so that we can protect our maritime waters because we are an archipelagic nation," Philippine Navy chief Robert Empedrad told reporters afterward. "With a weak navy, we cannot protect it."

With more than 7,600 islands, the fifth-longest coastline in the world, and territorial waters seven times greater in size than its land area, the Philippines should be "a big maritime nation," Empedrad said, adding it once was.

After World War II, the Philippines had one of the most powerful navies in Asia.

But over the past 60 years, the Philippine Navy became one of the weakest as the government focused since the 1970s on internal security threats posed by communist rebellions and Muslim insurgents, while relying on the U.S. military to provide protection against external threats.

But that U.S. shield began to crumble when the Philippine government in the 1990s ordered the closure of Clark Air Base and Subic Naval Base, respectively the largest U.S. air force and naval facilities in Asia.

"Six decades later, we are one of the weakest (navies), even in the Southeast Asian region," said Empedrad.

"Maritime nations like Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan and Singapore, and even Vietnam and Myanmar, have upgraded their naval capability, while the Philippine Navy went into obsolescence," Empedrad said during the navy's 120th anniversary celebration on May 22.

In 2006, the Philippine Navy began pursuing a plan to again become "strong and credible" by 2020 through modernizing its equipment and improving training of its officers and personnel.

Under President Benigno Aquino, the Navy started acquiring more modern equipment, such as AW-109 helicopters, Landing Craft Heavy vessels donated by the Australian government, Hamilton class cutters from the United States, and multi-purpose attack craft.

But during Aquino's presidency, China started to aggressively assert its claims in the South China Sea by driving away Filipinos conducting energy surveys in the Reed Bank, fishing at the Scarborough Shoal and in disputed areas of the Spratly Islands, and even Philippine coast guard vessels patrolling the country's exclusive economic zone.

And when Manila filed an arbitration case against Beijing in 2013 over disputed features in the South China Sea, China reacted by ramping up reclamation activities in disputed reefs while rejecting the territorial dispute settlement process allowed under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, to which both countries are signatories.

In 2016, the Philippines won the case as the arbitration court ruled that China's so-called nine-dash line theory -- upon which China's claims to almost the entirety of the South China Sea rests -- had no legal basis.

In recent weeks, international concern over China's activities in the South China Sea have spiked again on news of their militaristic nature.

The reports include the landing of H-6K bomber planes on Woody Island in the Paracels; of other military planes landing on reclaimed land in Subi Reef, which is only 12 nautical miles from the Philippine-occupied Thitu Island; and on Mischief Reef, a feature clearly adjudged by the arbitration court to belong to the Philippines.

China has also installed military jamming equipment on Mischief Reef and Fiery Cross Reef, and anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air missile systems.

But at the navy's anniversary celebration, Empedrad described actions underway to bolster the nation's maritime defenses.

These include the acquisition of five TC90 aircraft from Japan, and of the navy's "very first missile capability," mounted on multi-purpose attack craft.

"The aircraft has longer range that can effectively cover our vast maritime waters" in support of the nation's land-based monitoring stations, Empedrad said of the TC90s from Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force.

He also described the Israeli-built missile system as "very accurate," providing strong deterrence. "I'm sure enemies that ply our maritime waters will be threatened."

A Pohang Corvette from South Korea may also be delivered later this year; the Philippine Marine Corps will receive amphibious attack helicopters early next year; two anti-submarine warfare helicopters with torpedoes will be operational next year; and two missile frigates are expected in 2020, the naval chief said.

While praising those acquisitions, former National Security Adviser Roilo Golez said still more must be done to enable the Philippine Navy to effectively guard the nation's territorial waters.

But he noted the difficulty given the size of the Philippine economy, about $400 billion, just a little more than twice what China will spend in 2018 just on its military.
 
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