So, it's pretty clear now that there's no fixing this shit. Our economy is in the torlet, and I've lived through at least four of these fuckin "recessions" by now, so I'm pretty sure none of us are gonna live to see a good economy, because there never was a bounce back from any of them.
I, being a pessimist, always assumed that every nation has its day in the sun and then it sets. All empires are thus: Settlement, Conquest, Commerce, Affluence, Intellect, Decadence. The origin story and the build-up, the brutal wars that establish supremacy of the people and their ideal, the commercial monopoly that follows the military might, the feelings of invincibility and the great works, the age of rationalism that ensures the ego-death one way or another, and then the decline which always sets in when rationalism overtakes romanticism.
| Empire | Age | Span |
| Assyria | 859-612 B.C. | 247 |
| The Persia of Cyrus and his descendants | 538-330 B.C. | 208 |
| Classical Athens (Solonian Constitution to Macedon Conquest) | 594-346 B.C. | 248 |
| Alexander the Great's Empire and his successors | 331-100 B.C. | 231 |
| Islam from Rashidun Caliphate to Abbasid Caliphate's Fracturing | 632-861 A.D. | 229 |
| Mongolia | 1206-1368 A.D. | 162 |
| Austrian Empire (End of Ottoman Hungary until WWI) | 1699-1918 A.D. | 219 |
| Romanov Russia | 1682-1916 A.D. | 234 |
| Constitutional America | 1789-??? A.D. | Probably the same |
~250 Years seems to be enough of a game of telephone that either we England (which seems like a good example of a long survival, or Egypt but that's hazy) into shifting our power structures and forms to become unrecognizable to ourselves every quarter millennium or we die. 1950's British Government isn't the 1707 formation of Britain nor is it the Absolute Kingship under Henry VIII or the English suffering under the First Barons' War.
However this is closed to America. America had the foolish idea of a written constitution which solidified what was allowed to shift within English law. Every strength is a weakness, what didn't even stop the Civil War ensures the utter enfeeblement of America in the middle of our current century.
Gas has now exceeded 9/11 and Katrina prices, from the lowest gas prices anyone has seen since I was in diapers, in only a year, and basically every political matter that hits the news in this country is some genuine cartoon shit that makes the term "Clown World" seem tame. I've accepted that this is the best it's gonna get, but I'm curious to see how long everyone thinks we've got left until the U.S. Federal Government implodes, or some other similar thing?
It depends on whether there will be a Great Man who ushers in a foolish romanticism to either make a bloated corpse of the constitution dance about as if still alive perhaps for centuries as with Rome, or if it will be allowed to fall into ruin as a shared sense of learned helplessness gripes the nation as no-one today is really the adult in the room. It is hard to tell which will be worse? 1776 was a long time ago and the technology of our age means the structures have to be different if you want to see the morals of the founding fathers work. The freedom of the press originally meant a freedom to publish or a freedom to use your printing press however you want, but that has been so lost in our internet age that a group calling themselves 'The Press' are arguing 4Chan and other ways to publish your thoughts so others can see them shouldn't exist in America. Subversion of the meaning is so thick you would need to start over entirely with a new constitution.
I used to think 2024 was the last election which would be considered legitimate by all parties and 2048 being the demographic tipping point where Whites could no longer give flight to remain truly American in a land of substitute populations. 2016 & 2020 somewhat quickened my estimates, and the housing & marriage statistics is leaving me thinking the 2030s is going to see a new political party sweep into power and eliminating the constitution through the merging of the Office of the Speaker of the House and the President and the dissolving of Congress. The French 2nd Empire, in its referendums, make for a good model but there is always the example of the Führer.
On the one hand, a savior who restructures the taxation and financial systems powering America into a nationalist force that benefits the common man and rewards his labor sounds like a good idea but creates what has come to be known as a Spenglerian Winter. A static imperialism of perfection without any further extension, nothing is advanced and everything becomes hollowed out and fossilized like Disney Star Wars compared to the first filming of the first movie. A perfection of instruction rather than inspiration. Rome was a museum staffed by alternating populations pretending to be Roman that acted like Republican Romans but where the Res Publica was alive this is like a statue or a photocopy only. Imagine an America of forced form but without any substance, and of terrifying powers confronting you for disobeying the public order as the system is slowly breaking down due to people only being able to mimic and fake being American, Liberal, or Constitutional. The whole West getting American citizenship and voting, but neither matters and is only given in order to demand military service or taxes. Rebellions and Autocrats struggling to fight sanity into a culture and politics which has since ceased to want to be what it is but cannot be allowed to drift into becoming something else because it would collapse too many things.
On the other hand, if the system and the people play themselves out honestly and soberly then the collapse would allow a balkanization and reformation. True Canada and Mexico would probably either shrink or expand into new forms alongside Greater Florida, a Great Lakes Republic, or a Mississippi River Monarchy but at least the forms would retain some new substance. The cultures would be real and the citizens would be authentically loyal to the new forms as they arose naturally. However, it would be poorer and miserable to live in for thirty years or so after it finally collapsed. Either because the economic press of your fellow citizens outnumbers the few creature comforts which remain or because you fled out into the hinterlands to live on your own terms but also your own labor in all things technical. You have no money, and no economy to trade money for things you don't know how to make. Adobe housing and outhouses made by hand sounds shitty, never mind a single crop failure being the end of you. We are leaving a period of excessive wealth, and shortages are going to become more and more common as the government incompetently intercedes on our behalf again and again. Rationing will fail for the same reasons as vaccination, social trust is gone for a system that wants you to suffer for the sins of your race or gender. Either there will be a savior after a crisis or a slow decline will keep going until we're shitting in an outhouse again. Corporations will treat their employees less and less as people. 6 week loans and subscriptions will replace ownership as no-one will be able to afford a 2010s lifestyle.
In that event, the non-savior model where things never come to a head but just slowly get worse and worse until nothing remains? US presidents are going to start dying of old age in office by 2040, and you might see one-terms begin to be the norm where the Speaker of the House gains more and more power each election. The constant two-year electioneering of the house will make the day-to-day into a hell of constant politicking.
The gerrymandering of the districts will alienate people from voting, but election fortifying will ensure record turnouts among a population where everyone swears they don't bother voting because nothing changes. The Democrats and Republican bases will seem to separate from the common man completely until it socially will become fashionable to be constantly political in a way that makes today calm by comparison. Texas will become the newest blue state nationally but stay red at the state level, abortion will stay illegal but only so it can be a punching bag socially.
The wage cage will become real, automation was always a lie and they needed bodies to run the dismal world-temple of capitalism commodifying everything into a subscription service. Water will become a subscription service with people bringing microchipped water jugs to grocery stores. The grocery stores will also be a subscription service. Going to the store will also be a subscription service. The friends you complain to about this might as well become a subscription service given sufficient time. Friendship circles will eventually become entirely sexual and polycules will become a subscription service.
By 2070 a Social Diglossia will emerge where a sort of Faggot-English will be spoken by a rich who live a 1970s lifestyle haphazardly and a form of english-creole will be spoken by immigrants living a 1930s lifestyle who never actually bothered to learn English but also needed to speak to one another and their rich masters who will pride themselves on understanding the little people of their society. Native-born Americans of European descent may speak a third more traditional version of English which will be seen as intellectually offensive and incredibly unfashionable.
In the end, I think America will collapse in 2100 if matters don't force unconstitutional powers claiming to be trying to save America to emerge upsetting the pattern. The end of America will come from a political shift from "he who is not with us is against us" to "he who is not against us is with us". The people will have by then mixed socially and racially that while a light-skinned 'White' Upper Class will still exist there will now be no common White America and people think of themselves as their State or larger region racially and culturally.
The depopulation from the economic kerfuffles and suicide epidemics between 2080-2100 will have allowed people to once again own their own homes on their own land. Societal self-expression will become fashionable again, and stores will start taking down their moral allegiance signage for an American or city flag. Ultimately it will only split America permanently apart for, after massive injections of finance into various programs of Child Care, Immigrant Security, and Accelerated Citizenship Programs, the average person will only have their local quasi-communal cultures after the numerous societal restructurings back and forth and no national culture or patriotism will have survived to 2100. Genuine European peoples will exist only in the forgotten corners and border cities, having long separated from America and regressed into a hyper-reactionary parallel society. New Economic Rights will come in allowing markets to carry products not FDA approved or subscription based. NER capitalists will bring sanity back into an impoverished country allowing people to live a modest life owning their own property and perhaps land.
Alternatively there is this third-path prediction:
A potential 4th scenario is that in the most materialist society there will grow a fanatical cult that is at once two things: utter garbage & a good excuse to stop living so hyperindividualistically. I wonder what percentage of Westerners like the way we live? I think a vast sum don't.
People used to sit at bars and coffee shops on stools facing counters where they could be served an endless supply of cheap drink and were expected to interact socially with each other as opposed to at the booths where there was privacy. People used to show up at regular times knowing who else would likely show at the same times often enough that the setting allowed for people to form friendships and orbit people that perhaps they wanted to date but missed one to many times to politely try again. People used to get reputations and wear them if not proudly then at least with an air of good fun.
That is completely fucking gone, and people would put up with a few shovels of bull shit to be able to get that small-crowd-who-all-know-each-other vibe back even in a cult depending
not on how foolish or not the principles were, but instead on how easy it was to slip in and out without a commitment. I predict China might be the location where the cult could form, and it not being Western would allow the self-hating whites and their hokey liberalism to join in on what probably would focus on healthy relationships based on earned trust rather than guilting people. That 4th scenario would majorly alter the path of the west although how it would end the problems would probably be by generationally shifting America away from hyperindividualism and back towards social-collectivism and their traditional cultures. America had a worse no-fault divorce system than the USSR did after all, strangely collectivism needs traditional methods of coercion more than capitalism. Wouldn't a cult probably act the same way?
I actually think a collapse without a supposed savior would take longer and happen around 2100, and a collapse with a savior would happen in 2030 but usher in a stagnation which would last centuries and then fail anyway because culturally shit is actually unfixable. The systems at the top are too old, and the real people on the bottom are about to realize how little of life's purpose and joys they can realistically earn anymore. Maybe there will be a mass reaction, or maybe individuals will just act out and nothing collective will emerge to challenge the trajectory we are on? Hard to say.
50-100, if technological progress reaches a dystopian point in which everything we do is in VR/AR, or worse, connected to neuralink and permanently sedated so the collapse doesn't hit so hard, and we kinda drift around like zombie men for a while. That's what I think will happen. It's only natural that neuralink or some other BCI becomes the new smartphone, and we all psychically engage in social media as a distraction, because it's easier than killing us all if we can still work.
Don't worry.
Energy is about to become so expensive that these delusions of cyberpunk will more likely than not be forgotten beneath dreams of being able to feed yourself post petroleum-based fertilizers. Literacy will collapse post-internet in the 2050s and culture will revert to a 1800s level of story-telling as digital copies become rare and disappear from common recollection. Faggot Video Games will take on the level of myth as people cannot imagine sitting around all day dick-in-hand watching Twitch Thots play games for you.
Chip shortages have only begun, the CEOs of NVIDIA, Intel, Broadcom and other industry leaders suggest that the shortfall could only be exhausted in 2023 by a large-scale commissioning of new plants. TSMC has pledged $107 billion to build factories through 2023, while Intel and Samsung have pledged at least $120 billion and $151 billion through 2030.
Its all Kung-Flu and Intel's Blockscale ASIC fault, but at least it will save us from ourselves. Application-specific integrated circuits replacing general purpose CPUs or GPUs in crypto-mining has to be a sign of the Apocalypse. Only so many factories, or resources, and alien archaeologists will be digging up ASICs for coin mining long after we're gone wondering what the hell we were thinking.
We're all probably going to outlive America's death, inshallah.
I hope I don't for that is what it means to be a thoroughbred. The honorable end is the one thing that can not be taken from a man. Unless I can love what shall come thereafter, it will be a cold lifeless hell of a grave to survive the coming collapse. I don't want to bury my loved ones after some horror during the going-under leaving only me to just be emotionally empty for decades. Let me fight for something or against something and then let it be my time. If it is the end of things, let there be a great battle where I can work through the grief of everything I know being over.
republicans and civil war 9) mirgants 10) islam and many even more retarded shit I don't care mentioning. Over that time Russian empire collapsed twice and now is on full speed to its third. I understand that shitting on the US in common hobby of the US-dwellers but from the third-party perspective it really looks kinda odd.
