Reports of Russian troops in Syria

In recent days, there have been several reports of Russian troops and vehicles fighting in Syria alongside Assad.

-Ynet says that a Russian expeditionary force has set up a forward operating base near Damascus, and thousands of military personnel and fighter jets are expected to begin showing up in the coming months.

Russia's also apparently reached an agreement with Iran to keep Assad in power as a buffer to prevent ISIS from spreading further east.

-State media cited by the Telegraph also supposedly shows Russian troops and vehicles already fighting rebels in Latakia. Other social media posts also seem to show Russian drones and aircraft photographed over Syria.



-Earlier in August, Bosphorus Naval News posted pictures of what seemed to be a Russian ship carrying military vehicles heading through Istanbul.

Spoiler

Of course, Russia has been supporting the Assad regime for a long time; that's not news. There have also always been wild-eyed reports about Russian invasions of Syria because the whole region is a clusterfuck of misinformation. But these reports are credible enough that the White House is "monitoring" them.


Discuss.

 

[AnOminous]

I wouldn't call it a fantasy. Russian ground troops are operating in Homs Province at the moment. There is irrefutable evidence of this. It's only going to take one little bit of bad intelligence for a drone strike to take out a Russian convoy. This would be a bad thing. Also, they are ALLIED with Assad, therefore attacking Assad is still warfare by proxy against Putin's regime. You really seem to have no idea exactly how complicated even one Russian death at the hands of a NATO state would make the worldwide political situation.

I thought they were denying they were even there. I'd like to see their complaint about their troops that aren't there being hit.

 

[LazarusOwenhart]

I thought they were denying they were even there. I'd like to see their complaint about their troops that aren't there being hit.

No they can't deny it anymore, there's hundreds of selfies being posted by Russian soldiers on twitter and facebook and the BBC pulled the EXIF and most of them are GPS tagged lol. The official line is, and has been for a while, that they're defending a Russian owned naval base on the Syrian coast but half the tags come from inside Homs Province which is neither nearby nor on the way there. It is however where quite a lot of rebel activity is taking place.

 

[AnOminous]

No they can't deny it anymore, there's hundreds of selfies being posted by Russian soldiers on twitter and facebook and the BBC pulled the EXIF and most of them are GPS tagged lol. The official line is, and has been for a while, that they're defending a Russian owned naval base on the Syrian coast but half the tags come from inside Homs Province which is neither nearby nor on the way there. It is however where quite a lot of rebel activity is taking place.

From how they're dealing directly with Israel, it seems they're entirely aware of the possibility of accidentally exchanging fire while in the same area. Unless someone was looking for an excuse to start World War III or something, I don't see why an inadvertent hit would be escalated by either side. Nobody has any advantage from doing that.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

I wouldn't call it a fantasy. Russian ground troops are operating in Homs Province at the moment.

Yes, but the mere presence of Russian troops doesn't constitute an intervention, let alone a decisive one. Russian military personel have been in Syria for the duration of the conflict, we're just seeing a scaling up (although how much of one is still unclear) and more publicity about it.

Also, they are ALLIED with Assad, therefore attacking Assad is still warfare by proxy against Putin's regime.

You really think Putin is going to regard an attack on Assad as an attack on Russia? They are "allied" in the sense that Russia is supporting Assad diplomatically and militarily, but they are not "allied" in the sense that, say, Belgium is allied to the USA, where there is a strong public legal commitment for one to defend the other.

You really seem to have no idea exactly how complicated even one Russian death at the hands of a NATO state would make the worldwide political situation.

It would be complicated, but Putin is a pragmatist who doesn't allow himself to be pressured to doing anything he doesn't want to do, and he doesn't want a general war with the west. Do you remember when the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was blown up by NATO jets? China got very angry and made a lot of demands but there was never any talk of a general war. If Russian soldiers were killed by NATO bombs in Syria it'd be a similar situation.

 

[LazarusOwenhart]

@Dudeofteenage In the same way that the presence of Russian troops in Crimea and Ukraine doesn't constitute an invasion? Putin is bolstering his troop numbers there because he has a number of strategically important military installations on the Syrian coast and if Assad falls any new government will probably try and kick him out. Putin's not protecting Assad, he's not going "Aaaaw, poor Bashar, those rebels are mean I should send him some soldiers". He's protecting that base which is his gateway to the Mediterranean Sea, protecting Assad's regime is the simplest way to do that. As for pragmatic? Was invading Ukraine the sensible and rational thing to do? A while ago there was a leader who people talked about the way you're talking about Putin right now but then there was some business in Poland and we all sorta fell out with him. As for the Chinese embassy? Entirely different situation. For a start the levels of political tension between China and the US at that time were much lower but, and here's the kicker, China can't go to war with the US. China depends on it's export market to survive as a country. China is the worlds factory. If they went to war with the US, naturally everybody in the West would instantly throw up a trade embargo quickly bankrupting virtually all Chinese manufacturing industries and plunging the country back to Third World status. There's no situation where that turns out well for China. You say Putin doesn't want war with the West? He's Sabre rattling like crazy and doing things that haven't been done since the Cold War. He's sent armed bombers into UK and US airspace a number of times over the last few months and sure, they've turned around as soon as the interceptors met them in the air but that shit stopped in 1991 and he's re-started it. He wants tighter control and for that he needs an 'adversary' like the West. The way you talk you almost sound like you approve of some of the things he's doing.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

@Dudeofteenage In the same way that the presence of Russian troops in Crimea and Ukraine doesn't constitute an invasion? Putin is bolstering his troop numbers there because he has a number of strategically important military installations on the Syrian coast and if Assad falls any new government will probably try and kick him out...

Wow. Obligatory disclaimer - I don't approve of Putin's expansionism anywhere, least of all in Syria. What he's doing in Crimea and Ukraine are definitely invasions. Putin is definitely a bad person and his rule is bad for everybody including the average Russian.

I also think it's an exaggeration to say that Russia has numbers of strategically important installations in Syria - they in fact have just one installation, the Tartus base, and it's not really strategically important - it is too small to take anything but the smallest Russian ships. Through most of the 00s it was manned by less than ten Russian sailors. In contrast the facilities in Crimea were home to nearly 11,000 sailors and could host the largest Russian ships.

I also think you're wrong about the power imbalance between China and Russia. Russia can't win a general confrontation with the west either. Their whole strategy in Crimea, and earlier, Georgia, involved stopping short of the line that would provoke such a war. Putin's latest surge of aggression has been all about limited 'hybrid wars' precisely because he knows a general war is not something he can win.

I do agree that he wants to pump the West up as the bogeyman on the Russian street, but that doesn't mean he is seeking a general conflict, and that wouldn't change if NATO accidentally bombed some Russian troops in Syria.

 

[Bork Laser]

Speaking of Cold War like stuff, Iraq has agreed to help share intel with Iran, Syria and Russia to fight against ISIS http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/27/middleeast/iraq-russia-iran-syria-intelligence-deal/index.html

 

[XYZpdq]

Iraq has agreed to help share intel with Iran

I'm no mideastologist but isn't those two working together towards anything a pretty big deal?

 

[seagull]

I'm no mideastologist but isn't those two working together towards anything a pretty big deal?

In the larger context of them fighting a war against each other not that long ago, sure, but the current Iraqi government has been getting closer with Iran for a while. As the article mentions, Iran has been providing support to the Iraqi government again ISIS for at least several months now (sorry, I'm not sure about the time frame on that).

Part of the reason that's happening is that Iraq and Iran are both Shia majority countries, and ISIS is a Sunni organization. During the Iran-Iraq War, the Iraqi regime (under Saddam Hussein) was primarily Sunni, so that war also fell along sectarian lines.
Source detailing some of the sectarian divisions that have led to the current alliances.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

In the larger context of them fighting a war against each other not that long ago, sure, but the current Iraqi government has been getting closer with Iran for a while. As the article mentions, Iran has been providing support to the Iraqi government again ISIS for at least several months now (sorry, I'm not sure about the time frame on that).

It predates ISIS. Ever since the US toppled the Saddam regime Iran has been friendly towards Iraqi governments, because they tend to be Shi'a dominated and Iran has always had a strong interest in supporting the Sh'ia minority in Iraq.

 

[Guardian G.I.]

Russia is now officially involved in the Syrian clusterfuck.
Apparently, it was requested by Syrian president Assad himself. There are reports of pro-American rebel forces being bombed by Russian aircraft near Homs in Northern Syria, citing rebel sources and American officials.

 

[AnOminous]

Russia is now officially involved in the Syrian clusterfuck.
Apparently, it was requested by Syrian president Assad himself.

Because this kind of thing has historically tended to go so very well.

 

[Techpriest]

Russia is now officially involved in the Syrian clusterfuck.
Apparently, it was requested by Syrian president Assad himself. There are reports of pro-American rebel forces being bombed by Russian aircraft near Homs in Northern Syria, citing rebel sources and American officials.

Afghan War II - Russian boogaloo

 

[Guardian G.I.]

Afghan War II - Russian boogaloo

Unlike in Afghanistan, in Syria, Russia is trying to bomb the enemies of Assad from the air. A full-scale intervention with boots on the ground would be very unpopular - the infamous Afghan campaign is still remembered quite well.

 

[LazarusOwenhart]

Unlike in Afghanistan, in Syria, Russia is trying to bomb the enemies of Assad from the air. A full-scale intervention with boots on the ground would be very unpopular - the infamous Afghan campaign is still remembered quite well.

Russia already has small numbers of boots on the ground in Homs province. There's no Russian interest there apart from IS and the rebels.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

The legislation passed in the Duma this week specifically forbade ground operations. So Russia is, ironically, using a 90s-Clinton style intervention that seeks to use air power (and keep casualties low) while intervening.

Given that US/UK and recently French air power is being used extensively in Syria already, it's hard to see this as a game changer.

 

[LazarusOwenhart]

The legislation passed in the Duma this week specifically forbade ground operations. So Russia is, ironically, using a 90s-Clinton style intervention that seeks to use air power (and keep casualties low) while intervening.

Given that US/UK and recently French air power is being used extensively in Syria already, it's hard to see this as a game changer.

They managed to kill a load of civilians last night. Go Russia.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

They managed to kill a load of civilians last night. Go Russia.

Yeah well if there's one thing warfare in the last fifty years has shown us it's that you don't need boots on the ground to kill a bunch of people.

 

[Big Nasty]

All the Russia stooges are just going: "Well, if Russia does it, then it must be good."

 

[Datiko]

The local word for what Putin is doing is "wayang". He is just showing face to his people. There are deep structural issues in the Russian government and economy that probably wont get fixed. Putin scoffs at sanctions but the reality is that his currency is becoming ever more worthless, his oil piggy bank is drastically reduced, and there is virtually no demand from foreign investors to enter the Russian market. Foreign reserves can prop the country up for awhile but there is going to be a huge collapse in 2-3 years once the full impact of cuts hit. So how does Putin maintain public opinion when is castle collapses? Stoke his people into a nationalist fervor of course!

What do you need to go to war? People? Russia has a pretty large armed forces? Weapons? Russia has is a major arms exporter, it has enough toys to play with. Fuel? Nobody is buying their resources so might as well use it for war. Notice that he picks his fights to intervene in areas where he is against the west. In Ukraine its "protecting russian people from western fascists" and in Syria its "protecting a country from being taken over by the west". That's why Putin's government is still popular. All of this is marketed at home as glorious Russia standing up against a western onslaught. He has no interest in attacking the US; Russia might damage America but Russia would be obliterated in any war. He is more interested in maintaining an iron grip on his country and the post soviet world.