- Joined
- Sep 2, 2025
Calling it, it's nothing burger. Europe had one during the weekend that media hyped up and it was a snooze fest. Same shit here probably.
Severe Weather outbreaks
- Thread starter Meat Target
- Start date
- Joined
- Mar 4, 2019
A lot of people are still acting like it was the worst storm they've ever encountered. Just because it has a name, somehow they think it destroyed the entire continent.
Used to be we'd get a series of storms like this and it would just be "stormy weather"; it would blend together in peoples' minds as just summer storms. There'd be floods and trees brought down, but people wouldn't place it into any grand narrative, or even hear about it most of the time, because it was only ever reported locally. Now they name each one, so each is a fixed moment in time and memory, which creates an illusion of multiple, isolated, terrible events. People hear about every dribble of water over the side of a river as a world-ending flood, and every tree branch brought down as a life-threatening disaster. Then they declare the modelled expected gusts as the wind speed, so everyone thinks we're getting battered by hurricane-force winds every single time. Then they tell us it's all our fault.
I fucking hate the future.
- Joined
- Aug 22, 2022
Something very rare occurred this week that a lot of people probably missed.
Meet Subtropical Storm Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Karen existed for a brief window on October 10th, as an area of low pressure that developed tropical characteristics. Karen featured peak sustained wind speeds of 45mph, and a minimum pressure of 998mb. She never made landfall and fell short of even becoming a full-fledged tropical storm. As a storm, Karen was completely unremarkable. There is one important detail that makes Karen very special, however, and that's where she formed: 44.5 degrees North, roughly the same latitude as Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Seriously, look how comically out of place this storm is on the Tropical Weather Outlook graphic. This graphic clearly wasn't made with storms forming this far north in mind. This is normally the area of the graphic where post-tropical cyclones go to die, not somewhere brand new cyclones decide to form. Karen has broken the record for the most northern Atlantic cyclone to form, and not even by a slim margin. The previous record was an unnamed storm from 1952 that formed at about 42 degrees North. The record from the satellite era is even further south, that being Tropical Storm Grace from 2009 which achieved tropical storm status at about 38.5 degrees North, according to a post-storm evaluation.
Now obviously a subtropical storm that manages to form at a latitude higher than fucking Toronto is destined to peter out pretty quicky and ultimately be weak as shit since everything a tropical storm relies on to maintain circulation and strength (humidity, warm surface temperatures, lack of wind shear, etc) doesn't really exist way out in the northern Atlantic. But even if the storm itself ultimately meant nothing whatsoever, the formation of any tropical or subtropical storm at such a high latitude is an unprecedented event and probably not something we're going to see again for quite a long time.
Meet Subtropical Storm Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Karen existed for a brief window on October 10th, as an area of low pressure that developed tropical characteristics. Karen featured peak sustained wind speeds of 45mph, and a minimum pressure of 998mb. She never made landfall and fell short of even becoming a full-fledged tropical storm. As a storm, Karen was completely unremarkable. There is one important detail that makes Karen very special, however, and that's where she formed: 44.5 degrees North, roughly the same latitude as Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Seriously, look how comically out of place this storm is on the Tropical Weather Outlook graphic. This graphic clearly wasn't made with storms forming this far north in mind. This is normally the area of the graphic where post-tropical cyclones go to die, not somewhere brand new cyclones decide to form. Karen has broken the record for the most northern Atlantic cyclone to form, and not even by a slim margin. The previous record was an unnamed storm from 1952 that formed at about 42 degrees North. The record from the satellite era is even further south, that being Tropical Storm Grace from 2009 which achieved tropical storm status at about 38.5 degrees North, according to a post-storm evaluation.
Now obviously a subtropical storm that manages to form at a latitude higher than fucking Toronto is destined to peter out pretty quicky and ultimately be weak as shit since everything a tropical storm relies on to maintain circulation and strength (humidity, warm surface temperatures, lack of wind shear, etc) doesn't really exist way out in the northern Atlantic. But even if the storm itself ultimately meant nothing whatsoever, the formation of any tropical or subtropical storm at such a high latitude is an unprecedented event and probably not something we're going to see again for quite a long time.
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2021
Yeah that's wild. Having been in Nova Scotia on the 10th though maybe I can offer some insight?
It was very windy extremely warm that day, close to record-breaking for that time of year. And I believe we had a big solar wind thing going on as well at the same time. You can definitely feel the wind when it's something coming off the ocean or when we just got hit by a big solar wind gust. It's also been very dry here. We were happy for 2 mm of rain the other day.
That's just a guess that it might have contributed though I honestly don't know.
It was very windy extremely warm that day, close to record-breaking for that time of year. And I believe we had a big solar wind thing going on as well at the same time. You can definitely feel the wind when it's something coming off the ocean or when we just got hit by a big solar wind gust. It's also been very dry here. We were happy for 2 mm of rain the other day.
That's just a guess that it might have contributed though I honestly don't know.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
Typhoon Halong has come ashore in Alaska. Dozens are reportedly dead in widespread storm surge and coastal flooding.
- Joined
- Aug 22, 2022
Keep an eye on Tropical Storm Melissa over the weekend:
She's been poking around in the Caribbean for a few days now, barely moving. Nothingburger storm so far. However, over the weekend as conditions improve, the models are predicting some pretty aggressive intensification:
The models are all over the place, but many are predicting up to a Category 4 storm. What makes this storm more concerning though is how slow it's moving. Melissa has basically not moved at all in two days:
Each dot represents the storm's epicenter at 6-hour intervals. After formation she pretty much just stalled out in the center of the Caribbean. The reason people are starting to shit their pants over this is because if Melissa undergoes rapid intensification and then moves north as forecast, Jamaica and possibly the eastern portion of Cuba could spend many hours or even multiple days under hurricane conditions. This is the exact setup that made Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Dorian so disastrous for Texas and the Bahamas, respectively. A powerful storm that stalls over land and just blasts you with hurricane force winds and torrential rain for, like, eighteen hours straight. Jamaica's been pretty lucky despite its location and hasn't had a major hurricane make landfall since 1988's Hurricane Gilbert, a Category 3 storm that took an absolutely ridiculous path:
Seriously, what the fuck is this track. But other than a lot of near-misses and a couple landfalls from weaker storms (Including Hurricane Sandy in 2012 as a mere Cat 1), Jamaica has not had a landfall from a storm above a Cat 3 in decades. Despite the development of multiple major hurricanes, the Atlantic has gotten away without a major landfall so far this season. If the forecasts are correct, that luck is about to run out.
She's been poking around in the Caribbean for a few days now, barely moving. Nothingburger storm so far. However, over the weekend as conditions improve, the models are predicting some pretty aggressive intensification:
The models are all over the place, but many are predicting up to a Category 4 storm. What makes this storm more concerning though is how slow it's moving. Melissa has basically not moved at all in two days:
Each dot represents the storm's epicenter at 6-hour intervals. After formation she pretty much just stalled out in the center of the Caribbean. The reason people are starting to shit their pants over this is because if Melissa undergoes rapid intensification and then moves north as forecast, Jamaica and possibly the eastern portion of Cuba could spend many hours or even multiple days under hurricane conditions. This is the exact setup that made Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Dorian so disastrous for Texas and the Bahamas, respectively. A powerful storm that stalls over land and just blasts you with hurricane force winds and torrential rain for, like, eighteen hours straight. Jamaica's been pretty lucky despite its location and hasn't had a major hurricane make landfall since 1988's Hurricane Gilbert, a Category 3 storm that took an absolutely ridiculous path:
Seriously, what the fuck is this track. But other than a lot of near-misses and a couple landfalls from weaker storms (Including Hurricane Sandy in 2012 as a mere Cat 1), Jamaica has not had a landfall from a storm above a Cat 3 in decades. Despite the development of multiple major hurricanes, the Atlantic has gotten away without a major landfall so far this season. If the forecasts are correct, that luck is about to run out.
Smyrna
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2024
This evening's HAFS suite for Melissa is fairly self-explanatory (HAFS is the next-gen tropical cyclone model being developed by NOAA);
HAFS-A
HAFS-B
Jamaica has been lucky over the past few decades in avoiding a landfall from a major hurricane (Ivan in particular springs to mind). Perhaps that streak ends next week, although this storm is proving tricky to forecast and nothing is set in stone.
HAFS-A
HAFS-B
Jamaica has been lucky over the past few decades in avoiding a landfall from a major hurricane (Ivan in particular springs to mind). Perhaps that streak ends next week, although this storm is proving tricky to forecast and nothing is set in stone.
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2023
Shoutouts to the HAFS-B for forecasting an 860mb hurricane with winds of 225mph a few days ago
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2022
Smyrna
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2024
The NHC now forecasts that Melissa will attain sustained winds of 160mph (i.e. category 5) before landfall.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
Looks like Gitmo is going to get fucked up.
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2019
Jamaica is in danger.
- Joined
- Aug 22, 2022
Even the models aren't ruling out a Cat 5 anymore:
Recon flight data is reporting wind speeds up to 115 knots (130ish mph) meaning Melissa is likely brushing up against Category 4 territory:
Up to FORTY fucking inches in eastern Jamaica. Ho-lee Jesus.
If Melissa does indeed make it to Cat 5 status, it would make this the first time since 2005 in which at least three storms reached that designation in one season (2005 had four) and the second time EVER in which that happened. As far as I can tell, there's NEVER been another Atlantic hurricane season with 3+ category 5 storms. And during late October, of course, well past the time a storm this strong usually forms. A perfect cap to what has so far been a completely nutty hurricane season.
Recon flight data is reporting wind speeds up to 115 knots (130ish mph) meaning Melissa is likely brushing up against Category 4 territory:
This too has been revised upward:
Up to FORTY fucking inches in eastern Jamaica. Ho-lee Jesus.
If Melissa does indeed make it to Cat 5 status, it would make this the first time since 2005 in which at least three storms reached that designation in one season (2005 had four) and the second time EVER in which that happened. As far as I can tell, there's NEVER been another Atlantic hurricane season with 3+ category 5 storms. And during late October, of course, well past the time a storm this strong usually forms. A perfect cap to what has so far been a completely nutty hurricane season.
Smyrna
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2024
From the latest NHC Discussion. Melissa is now estimated to have 140mph winds and a minimum pressure of 944mbars.
There is an old adage about hurricane seasons - 'it only takes one'. One storm to make a year memorable, no matter how quiet the rest of the season is.
There is an old adage about hurricane seasons - 'it only takes one'. One storm to make a year memorable, no matter how quiet the rest of the season is.
Smyrna
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2024
Apologies for double posting.
If there is good news, it is that Melissa's forecast cone has shifted west as most of the models (both global and cyclonic suites) have moved landfall onto the southwestern coast of Jamaica, which means that the worst of the winds should now miss the Kingston metropolitan area entirely.
But the track is a double-edged sword, as the eastern half of the island will instead be deluged. The NHC's rainfall forecast map now suggests at least 20 inches of rain across most of the island and a pocket of 30+ in the far east. Combined with the hilly terrain funneling the water down to the coast rapidly, it makes flooding the biggest danger that the storm presents.
If there is good news, it is that Melissa's forecast cone has shifted west as most of the models (both global and cyclonic suites) have moved landfall onto the southwestern coast of Jamaica, which means that the worst of the winds should now miss the Kingston metropolitan area entirely.
But the track is a double-edged sword, as the eastern half of the island will instead be deluged. The NHC's rainfall forecast map now suggests at least 20 inches of rain across most of the island and a pocket of 30+ in the far east. Combined with the hilly terrain funneling the water down to the coast rapidly, it makes flooding the biggest danger that the storm presents.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
Landslides are going to be a huge problem.
Remember Helene? This is what she did too North Carolina as a Category 1.
Jamaica's terrain is very similar too Appalachia. Its basically a fucking mountain sticking up out of the ocean. A Category 5 hitting such a mountainous region at this slow speed? Yikes.
