Severe Weather outbreaks

How are things looking for central MS, like around Jackson? Asking for a friend.......
It's already thundering outside lol. Can't wait to be woken up in a few hours by tornado sirens! I wonder when the power will go out. Charge all your devices y'all!!
 
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TWIN TORNADOES HEADED FOR JONESBORO ARKANSAS! THESE ARE BOTH LIKELY STRONG TO VIOLENT!
 
At one point I saw 26 simultaneous tornado warnings, many of which [like 14-15] of those were confirmed. That's fucking insane.
 
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Violent, massive tornado underway in Mississippi, just south of Grenada. Debris up to 25kft.
 
Holy shit, I'm glad the big stuff missed me. I had to shelter in my basement for a bit, but the sirens kept starting, stopping, and starting again not even 30 seconds after they turned off. It was just one after another and I've never seen anything like it before. Hoping the rest of you Dixie kiwis fare as well as I did.
 
Advanced Garbage said:
It was just one after another and I've never seen anything like it before.
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I'd go as far as to say this was on-par with 3/31/23 in terms of the sheer insanity and number of tornadoes, and most of them today were strong to violent which is very, very unusual. I'm mortified to find out what's gonna happen tomorrow.
 
#FF0000 said:
I'd go as far as to say this was on-par with 3/31/23 in terms of the sheer insanity and number of tornadoes, and most of them today were strong to violent which is very, very unusual. I'm mortified to find out what's gonna happen tomorrow.
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That's what's scary to me. If what happened around here wasn't even the main event, tomorrow's gonna be an absolute nightmare.
 
Here's a few Nadocast [https://x.com/nadocast] runs, keep in mind that it is highly experimental but it's gotten some outbreaks right before. I recall one in particular [think it was March 14th exactly one year ago] where parts of the Ohio Valley were under a slight risk with a small percentage [5%] for tornadoes, somehow Nadocast absolutely nailed it. But yeah take it with a grain of salt obviously, needless to say I hope this doesn't fucking verify.

For example this is the model run for today, March 14th, which if anything it looks like it sold tonight's storm short in the Missouri/Illinois area:
Mar-14-2025-nadocast-projection.png

Model run for March 15th:

Mar-15-2025-nadocast-projection1.png

And the absolutely calibrated model run for March 15th, take this one with a big grain of salt:
Mar-15-2025-nadocast-projection2.png

Last one is pretty dubious, but worth making note of.

Just to reference how this thing has nailed it in the past, this was the tornado outlook for March 14th 2024:

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And the Nadocast model run:

1742026804578.png

Not a massive difference but you can see it does have a sizeable 10% bubble in that exact area along with a hatched risk in some spots. I was really impressed by it, but again it's not something to really rely on. That system totally overperformed in comparison to what the SPC thought it might do.
 
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Green Man said:
Here's a few Nadocast [https://x.com/nadocast] runs, keep in mind that it is highly experimental but it's gotten some outbreaks right before. I recall one in particular [think it was March 14th exactly one year ago] where parts of the Ohio Valley were under a slight risk with a small percentage [5%] for tornadoes, somehow Nadocast absolutely nailed it. But yeah take it with a grain of salt obviously, needless to say I hope this doesn't fucking verify.

For example this is the model run for today, March 14th, which if anything it looks like it sold tonight's storm short in the Missouri/Illinois area:
View attachment 7094880

Model run for March 15th:

View attachment 7094883

And the absolutely calibrated model run for March 15th, take this one with a big grain of salt:
View attachment 7094882

Last one is pretty dubious, but worth making note of.

Just to reference how this thing has nailed it in the past, this was the tornado outlook for March 14th 2024:

View attachment 7094894

And the Nadocast model run:

View attachment 7094902

Not a massive difference but you can see it does have a sizeable 10% bubble in that exact area along with a hatched risk in some spots. I was really impressed by it, but again it's not something to really rely on.
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When did they bring Nadocast back? As I recall, it went down last year? Or the year before? With no plans on bringing it back.
 
Gravemind said:
When did they bring Nadocast back? As I recall, it went down last year? Or the year before? With no plans on bringing it back.
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Seems like they brought it back online over the past day or so, on their Twitter feed they posted pictures of the process of getting their new server set up. It was pretty good timing, obviously it's not to be relied upon for actual guidance but every now and then it totally nails it, even when the SPC undersold it to an extent.

Speaking of comparisons, they have a section of the website set up for just that: https://test.nadocast.com/

Hopefully if these current cells linger around in Mississippi/Alabama it might lessen later developments but if it clears off pretty quick, all bets are off.
 
Great to see Nadocast get his shit put back together just in time. For information, the Absolutely Calibrated output always over-eggs the pudding, but the standard composites (2022 and 2024 models) are reasonably reliable. Ultimately, like every other model in existence, it is contingent upon the golden rule of modelling - rubbish in, rubbish out. If the source models get it wrong, then so will Nadocast.

The Day 1 update expanded the High risk area northwards, although no new major cities were included. Jackson remains on the periphery of the High risk, Tuscaloosa and Birmingham are firmly within it.
 
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