Stephen Hawking: Automation and AI is going to decimate middle class jobs

Artificial intelligence and increasing automation is going to decimate middle class jobs, worsening inequality and risking significant political upheaval, Stephen Hawking has warned.

In a column in The Guardian, the world-famous physicist wrote that"the automation of factories has already decimated jobs in traditional manufacturing, and the rise of artificial intelligence is likely to extend this job destruction deep into the middle classes, with only the most caring, creative or supervisory roles remaining."

He adds his voice to a growing chorus of experts concerned about the effects that technology will have on workforce in the coming years and decades. The fear is that while artificial intelligence will bring radical increases in efficiency in industry, for ordinary people this will translate into unemployment and uncertainty, as their human jobs are replaced by machines.

Technology has already gutted many traditional manufacturing and working class jobs — but now it may be poised to wreak similar havoc with the middle classes.

A report put out in February 2016 by Citibank in partnership with the University of Oxford predicted that 47% of US jobs are at risk of automation. In the UK, 35% are. In China, it's a whopping 77% — while across the OECD it's an average of 57%.



And three of the world's 10 largest employers are now replacing their workers with robots.

Automation will, "in turn will accelerate the already widening economic inequality around the world," Hawking wrote. "The internet and the platforms that it makes possible allow very small groups of individuals to make enormous profits while employing very few people. This is inevitable, it is progress, but it is also socially destructive."

He frames this economic anxiety as a reason for the rise in right-wing, populist politics in the West: "We are living in a world of widening, not diminishing, financial inequality, in which many people can see not just their standard of living, but their ability to earn a living at all, disappearing. It is no wonder then that they are searching for a new deal, which Trump and Brexit might have appeared to represent."

Combined with other issues — overpopulation, climate change, disease — we are, Hawking warns ominously, at "the most dangerous moment in the development of humanity." Humanity must come together if we are to overcome these challenges, he says.

Stephen Hawking has previously expressed concerns about artificial intelligence for a different reason — that it might overtake and replace humans. "The development of artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race," he said in late 2014. "It would take off on its own, and redesign itself at an ever increasing rate. Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete, and would be superseded."

http://www.businessinsider.com/step...t-dangerous-moment-humanity-2016-12?r=UK&IR=T

 

[Beaniebon]

...and we can't train the middle class to oversee and operate their robot tools why? Listen, Hawking is a genius, but cybernetics is not his field - and I find it disturbing that one can tout a genius as a voice of authority in a field he's not specialized in.

Automation is good in some fields, but it is in no way a replacement for skilled professionals in others. Those saying the robots are coming to take our jobs are foolish at best, and irresponsible at worst.

They will have to learn how to maintain and opertate the robots. However, the robots will still be taking more jobs than they create tbh. Maybe not at first since they'll just be taking over mechanical factory and truckers/uber driver type jobs. Soon enough, though, a lot of costumer service jobs will be taken over. We already have self check outs. You can get your tickets at the movies from a machine instead of buying one from the desk. Having a robot check you out at McDonalds instead of a person isn't far fetched.

 

[Bassomatic]

We already have self check outs. You can get your tickets at the movies from a machine instead of buying one from the desk. Having a robot check you out at McDonalds instead of a person isn't far fetched.

And these are middle class jobs? As you said the robots will need upkeep in many ways sales of them training for them repair etc, it's going to be a new field.

I think there will be a clear shift but it's really going to effect the least trained the most. I'm not sure why Hawkings says it's a threat to the middle class (trained) work force. The poor and more so entry level should be freaking out. Robotics will come in the wealthy nations one of those is the US, now, unless healthcare gets unfucked fast lots of old people are "retired" but working for it... taking a job just for health care, now the robots come....

 

[Tranhuviya]

This, really, is the failure of the West. Our inability to protect our workers is our enduring shame, and the inevitable progress of science and technology only serves to exacerbate this.

 

[Beaniebon]

And these are middle class jobs? As you said the robots will need upkeep in many ways sales of them training for them repair etc, it's going to be a new field.

I think there will be a clear shift but it's really going to effect the least trained the most. I'm not sure why Hawkings says it's a threat to the middle class (trained) work force. The poor and more so entry level should be freaking out. Robotics will come in the wealthy nations one of those is the US, now, unless healthcare gets unfucked fast lots of old people are "retired" but working for it... taking a job just for health care, now the robots come....

I never said they were middle class jobs. They are, however, some of the most "people heavy" industries. There are more retail workers than there are lawyers and doctors. A lot of low wage workers will be affected. And I did say they will need upkeep BUT that new industry will not require nearly as many people as will be let go from factorizes, fast food chains, truckers/taxi/uber drivers, and all that other shit.

Plus these low wage unskilled workers that are out of work will not have the skills to operate a machine. It would take years of training. And most of these new jobs would probably be more on the computer science side which can, in some cases, be even harder to train for and learn how to do. Most of these new jobs will go to middle/upper middle class people who have degrees and can't really find a job in their field. Low skilled workers are fucked.

It might be pretty good for middle class workers who are educated because they will be in very high demand and their pay will increase. But then again that's a slippery slope because low skilled workers are a huge consumer class and if they have no money at all they can't really buy and spend. The economy would go down the shitter affecting everyone.

 

[Broseph Stalin]

Science and AI/Automation is a lot like the porn industry and crazy bizarre Asian dinosaur scat porn. They keep asking themselves, "Can we do this?" when they really need to ask themselves, "Should we do this?"

 

[QI 541]

The only way around mass unemployment is a smaller population. A lot of people will have to get jobs in computer science or engineering (to program and maintain the robots).

We'll probably automate those jobs in the future too.

 

[ToroidalBoat]

I remember reading this article from the 90s or 00s on creating sentient AI. One guy was against it, claiming we don't need "new oppressed minorities."

 

[Lorento]

Science and AI/Automation is a lot like the porn industry and crazy bizarre Asian dinosaur scat porn. They keep asking themselves, "Can we do this?" when they really need to ask themselves, "Should we do this?"

And they always both questions with a wholehearted 'Yes.'

 

[Randall Fragg]

Mass starvation was supposed to happen in 1970s and 80s because of overpopulation

Actually, if it weren't for the agricultural advances made by the "Green Revolution" in the 60s and 70s, that likely would have panned out. However, due to advances in pesticides, crop breeds, and fertilizers, and programs to introduce these advances to the 3rd world, crop yields improved dramatically.

 

[DuckSucker]

This really is obvious. I mean, look at the whole "self driving car" thing that's coming. That's going to wipe out people like truck and taxi drivers. Millions of jobs, gone.
I'm predicting that we're going to start seeing a wave of neo-Luddism, as people start blaming automation for destroying the jobs. Silicon Valley is going to become the next political bad guy, like Wall Street is today. A bunch of elitist, coastal dwelling nerds who want to replace your job with robots. The negative imagery writes itself.
If anyone can find a way to spin a political campagin around that, they are going to be very successful.

One thing I saw was someone arguing against Trump's wall about how it's white men angry that migrants are taking their jobs. But it's not migrants taking the jobs, it's fucking robots. My response was, it's easy to just say "Love Trumps Hate" and that through the magic of peace, love, and tolerance everything will work out (because it has for you, who doesnt have to worry about it) but migrants end up doing the shitty jobs, farm work, under the table work--shit that would have been outsourced anyway. It's effectively outsourcing. But with automation, even those jobs will go away--if there's not enough work for our own citizens, there's definitely not going to be enough for our citizens, plus immigrants who will have to worry about not only no longer having employment, but having to integrate or settle down. Hispanics are largely Catholic, have larger families, and against abortion, too, so it's not like theyre going to be beholden to liberal values. The person ignored me and started talking about how it was just racist.

 

[ZehnBoat]

This really is obvious. I mean, look at the whole "self driving car" thing that's coming. That's going to wipe out people like truck and taxi drivers. Millions of jobs, gone.

the jobs will just move. someone needs to make the AI, set things up to the needs of the company etc.
hell even if a truck drives itself it needs someone to watch over it, it needs someone to fill it up

 

[Broseph Stalin]

the jobs will just move. someone needs to make the AI, set things up to the needs of the company etc.
hell even if a truck drives itself it needs someone to watch over it, it needs someone to fill it up

Plus someone might have to run security on the thing when the neo-luddites or IRL trolls decide to fuck with them. I can imagine quite a few people trying to run those things off the road or knock them off course in the early days before they decide, "Hey, I got an idea. Let's put a FUCKING MINIGUN on our automated transports to disuade the general public from messing with us! It's not like the AI will glitch and shoot everyone."

 

[Marvin]

Plus someone might have to run security on the thing when the neo-luddites or IRL trolls decide to fuck with them. I can imagine quite a few people trying to run those things off the road or knock them off course in the early days before they decide, "Hey, I got an idea. Let's put a FUCKING MINIGUN on our automated transports to disuade the general public from messing with us! It's not like the AI will glitch and shoot everyone."

I would have zero problem with a robo taxi driver with a gun. That frankly sounds badass.

He's gotta be like Johnny Cab from Total Recall (which we watched in movie night last night):

 

[buffaloWildWings]

http://www.businessinsider.com/step...t-dangerous-moment-humanity-2016-12?r=UK&IR=T

Plus someone might have to run security on the thing when the neo-luddites or IRL trolls decide to fuck with them. I can imagine quite a few people trying to run those things off the road or knock them off course in the early days before they decide, "Hey, I got an idea. Let's put a FUCKING MINIGUN on our automated transports to disuade the general public from messing with us! It's not like the AI will glitch and shoot everyone."

Reminds me of this classic 80s thang about mall security droids going insane:

 

[Bassomatic]

I never said they were middle class jobs. They are, however, some of the most "people heavy" industries. There are more retail workers than there are lawyers and doctors. A lot of low wage workers will be affected. And I did say they will need upkeep BUT that new industry will not require nearly as many people as will be let go from factorizes, fast food chains, truckers/taxi/uber drivers, and all that other shit.

Plus these low wage unskilled workers that are out of work will not have the skills to operate a machine. It would take years of training. And most of these new jobs would probably be more on the computer science side which can, in some cases, be even harder to train for and learn how to do. Most of these new jobs will go to middle/upper middle class people who have degrees and can't really find a job in their field. Low skilled workers are fucked.

It might be pretty good for middle class workers who are educated because they will be in very high demand and their pay will increase. But then again that's a slippery slope because low skilled workers are a huge consumer class and if they have no money at all they can't really buy and spend. The economy would go down the shitter affecting everyone.

I'm sorry I didn't mean to put words in your mouth.

Yes those will take the biggest hit, payroll is a bitch. We will see a shift towards AI/robot care though. And lets be honest to anyone who knows the smallest about blue color work theirs tiers, much like there will be with both sides on robo care. You are going to have some masters of robotics and some lube monkeys.

Have you ever seen a jiffy lube? Some of those kids can't drive (well you know what I mean) others can swap a trans in a few hours. I think even the first gen of fully useful robots etc will still need human care and help it's way way way down before self replication repair upkeep is a thing or done by bots.

I fucking hate the self check outs but every time I use one there's one two employees there so they can fix when that god damned machine thinks my debit card pin is really 11 lbs of bananas for god knows why. While it keeps shrinking and shrinking in my life time I really doubt the full "end" of low skilled human labor.

They said the cotton gin was going to end it... steam power... us economists find a way, or at least try to lol.

 

[King Kong... with wings?]

http://www.businessinsider.com/step...t-dangerous-moment-humanity-2016-12?r=UK&IR=T

automation and ai do play a part in job loss, but out of control corporations are another problem too

 

[A Random]

Would they really deploy auto cars with zero human drivers to avoid uncanny valleys?

 

[melty]

"Stephen Hawking said something obvious"
Related, I feel pretty bad for all the people who are riding on the uber boom for extra income or even as a full time job. that shit is going to go away so fucking fast.