myself and jaimas have been talking about the probability of people like alyssa's or kayla's claims being true in the context of preparing an article for the wiki. I asked a cousin to gave me a hand and she directed me to an online satistics tool some time and a lot of averaging of statistics and converting between % and decimal later and here are my findings, for a myriad of boring maths reasons and the inherent problem with calculations made based on samples and over simple gathering (i havent taken into account the disproportionate amount of mental illness amongst trans ppl for example) these are not greatly accurate however they give a rough idea of how common the tumblr snowflake condition might be in real life, this is a copy of my last message the 'you' is
@Jaimas the calculation is designed to work out the snowflake special of trans+autism+headmates+not white:
i used 0.003 to give the largest reasonable figure for trans people- it was the only one higher than 0.1% that wasn't from a lobby.
I used 0.03 for autism as per the higher side of your recommendation.
the odd for both at once is 0.000 09 or 0.009%
d.i.d occurs is 0.5% and schizophrenia in 1% i added them together for a total of 1.5% to recognise the current uncertainty and debate about the conditions and to compensate for difference in terminologies between states same as with the autism spectrum of the pop
the odds for an autistic transperson who hears voices/has multiple personalities is then
0.00000135 or 0.000135%
wikipedia give the % of non whites as 38% with 23% black. i used 38%
the probability for a non white autistic transgender person who hears voices in the USA is therefore 0.000 000 513
which in the USA is 162.5 people - presuming there is no link between the conditions and that the diagnosis are accurate. proportionally 16 of which would be in the 16-24 age range that largely make up tumblr's lolcow demographic
If we go by purely autism, D.I.D and transmen (which seem to represent most of our lolcows who claim to be non binary- they are almost all natal females) taking into account that autism is 75% less common in girls and ftm make up at best 35% transgender population.
is
0.1378125 people or 0.000 000 004 375 or 0.000 000 437%
or 4 people in the entire western hemisphere of whom has a 80+% chance of not being 16-25 and less than 30 in the world. with around 12 <25 years old and probably only 3-4 16-25 year old if we take the UN stats on the youth pop of the world as accurate at 40-45% and break it down roughly. This person would also be far more likely to live outside the west than inside.
this doesn't take into account the likelyhood of suicide such a cocktail would create- i would be surprised if many such people lived long lives.
edit oops i buggered the numbers for the western hemisphere and this cocked up the rest! have fixed. no i didn't i need to be more confident!
obviously the statistics are not accurate to any great degree but they give a loose approximation of how rare the condition is.
