I don't dispute the stuff WE left behind being broken or at the end of their service life. I'm more curious about the stuff the ANA had, which is the overwhelming majority of what the Taliban got. Did the ANA really have no ammo to give their own troops the last few months? Did the ANA have no reliable way to maintain weapons/equipment after the USA left?
This almost feels like, as Todd Howard would say, a feature and not a bug for our equipment. The ANA would rely on having technicians ("specialists") maintain equipment as long as the ANA wanted to use it and the minute the manufacturers/defense contractors are out of the picture, everything goes to shit. I feel like that was the original plan from the start -- the US Military would be out but specialist technicians would always be present to maintain equipment, since the ANA were technically customers.
Ok, so the potentially good stuff is essentially in three categories. Artillery, support equipment, and vehicles.
Vehicles is a wash. Good until it breaks and while they probably have some specialists or people who can fix it, they don’t have a lot of them and spare parts will run out. Lots of Afghani aircraft fled and they assassinated pilots. They could learn to use what they captured in terms of aircraft but that’s a long time investment and I don’t think they’ll do that. They’ll run it until it breaks or leave it behind to rust like the Soviet depots.
Artillery is a mixed bag. Some stuff will be used some won’t, depends on ammunition, training, and if they give enough of a fuck to try and use it. Mortars will be used for sure though.
Support equipment is the real fucking bitch of it all. Small drones, night vision gear, minesweeping equipment, demolition charges, medical supplies, uniforms, fuel, food, armory tools, boots, plate carriers, chest rigs, radios, counter battery radar (I swear we gave some to the Afghan army). Some of this stuff is easy to use, some of it will require specialists, some of it isn’t going to last long, some will last nearly forever. This is the biggest boon to them overall. It helps them pretend to be a legitimate military force, helps them keep fighters, looks shiny and nice, is practical, and in general is all the little shit that while not necessary for the civil war that is going to continue on indefinitely in the country, will help them fight it, though not always directly.
Y'all niggas missing the forest for the trees, the materiel doesn't matter, its the thousands of new jihadis that are going to flock to the emirate,that came into being due to Allah's blessing for the righteous defenders of the faith and fan out from there, that matter.
That's why this is a disaster.
This won’t last forever. Russia will not tolerate someone muscling in on the other ‘stans. Iran has religious and strategic regions to ensure that the Taliban remain focused on Afghanistan. India is about to have its angriest shits in decades - come hell or high water they’re going to find a way to try and undermine the Taliban, or at least make Pakistan have to invest more and more into them.
Pakistan is also likely to have this come back and bite them. The Taliban in Pakistan are already active. This will embolden them.
China is probably the next to try and directly intervene (aside from Iran if a war between them and Pakistan somehow happens though they’re pretty content to rile up their sectarian groups in each other’s countries) and I can’t wait to see them starve again like it’s ‘79 and the trees are speaking Vietnamese. I would love for the Taliban to try and spread the revolution into Xianjing. Whoever loses, we win and it’ll be funny.