The Most Common Cognitive Bias and Democracy

[Haim Arlosoroff]

In short, people have a bias where they unconsciously chose to ask questions where the answer affirms their ego rather than proves their ideas were wrong. They do this even if it doesn't help them, even if they are genuinely trying to solve the issue, and even if they've been told already that their answer is incorrect. They are always asking something where they expect the answer to be 'yes' even if an answer of 'no' reveals more of an insight. Why this is important is that it fundamentally disproves that the majority of people are logical or reasonable. They act according to their biases, experiences, and their ego. They don't naturally act according to reason and logic. People can be taught to act rationally, but it is learned and not innate.

"No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." -Winston Churchill

My issue is this means that in a Democracy where the average man or woman is being allowed to vote, there will be situations where the majority are just not able to rationally decide for themselves what the sustainable choice is and logically figure out the answer which preserves their Republic. For example, there is no guarantee that those who argue about the government's economic policies are themselves professional economists or academically competent in this particular discipline, regardless of whether they were well-educated. Essentially this means that a directly democratic government may not be providing the most good for the largest number of people.

The only surviving Republics then are those that become representative, but all representative democratic forms generate aristocracies within their political parties until every party is oligarchic and undemocratic anyway. The people pick between two parties that are constantly in congress with each other and distant from the people, constantly aligning with each other by promises or mutual campaign financiers. In the Democratic Party, there are an increasing number of Democrats marrying Journalists who then attend the same parties, the same weddings, and the same birthday parties.

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"It's a big club, and you ain't in it. You and I are not in the big club. And by the way, it's the same big club they use to beat you over the head with all day long when they tell you what to believe." -George Carlin

This issue wouldn't be a big deal if it were explicitly understood. People would understand that the news is just a tool by the rich to keep America to a certain status quo. That the class which makes up the staff in the legislative and executive branches are all intermarried into the journalist class forming a ruling class of bureaucrats who know how to work a crowd but not necessarily how to do their job. That Bill Gates was necessarily a congressional page before he could become a millionaire, which means social mobility rides on a certain course of offices and jobs in order to advance upwards on the social hierarchy. However the Average American is ignorant of the extent to which the billionaire class came from rich parents and certain social connections rather than pure hard work or rare skill set. Worse, this ignorance causes social mobility in the most general sense to die as the majority fail to understand how to properly ascend America's class system.

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People stubbornly believe that the proper people get rewarded for intelligence and skill rather than their social connections, however this is the least true today and will be less true tomorrow. There is no changing this in the short term. There are ways to climb the social ladder, but less and less know how. People cannot be expected to understand automatically that their society has changed and the myths are no longer helpful in teaching you the methods of social advancement. For 'the most common cognitive bias' prevents them from asking the questions which would force them to understand today's America. They unconsciously chose to ask questions where the answer affirms their ego rather than proves their ideas were wrong. They do this even if it doesn't help them, even if they are genuinely trying to solve the issue, and even if they've been told already that their answer is incorrect. They will not choose to enlighten themselves, they will have to be forced to confront their bias. However the very structure of their society instead permits them to focus on their prejudices and shelters them from the information that would be used to wake them up to their surroundings.

The media shapes public opinion by supplying the information which the public then use to argue their beliefs. If the only information presented are the one's which allow for democratic or hyper-lolbertarian arguments then a false binary is created where COVID deaths should only be displayed until Biden is inaugurated. Where a motorcycle accident counts as a covid death because covide might have impaired the judgement of the driver, however neither the Microsoft National Broadcasting Corporation or Cable News Network will announce vaccine deaths by such a metric. Nor cover any prominent people who died within 48 hours of receiving the vaccine, even the J&J adenovirus vaccine. Do you think they are any different with LGBT issues, Immigration, or Race relations? They will never teach the public about the system that they are a part of. The system which is killing social mobility.

Instead they are loyal only to their sponsors, or in their billionaire owners who all vote one way. All the while they speak strongly about their press freedoms as if that is a guarantee of a wide range of opinions or at least a way of guaranteeing the whole truth will be broadcast. In either case, billionaires rule and not the average American.

TL;DR: The wise few govern themselves by reason, the average govern themselves by experience. Today the media largely give you your experiences of the world you live in, and they are all busy bonking Democrats and licking billionaire's shoes.

 

[KingCoelacanth]

Whenever people talk about truth and reality, they always mean their truth and reality.
If they think the truth is that Biden should be president over Trump, they will always report on and cover stories in ways that uphold this "truth". If a story benefits Biden or hurts Trump, then its truthful. If a story benefits Trump or hurts Biden, then its untruthful.
Journalists all over the world do this, in the US, UK, Russia, China, Turkey, etc.

 

[Lemmingwise]

In short, people have a bias where they unconsciously chose to ask questions where the answer affirms their ego rather than proves their ideas were wrong. They do this even if it doesn't help them, even if they are genuinely trying to solve the issue, and even if they've been told already that their answer is incorrect. They are always asking something where they expect the answer to be 'yes' even if an answer of 'no' reveals more of an insight. Why this is important is that it fundamentally disproves that the majority of people are logical or reasonable. They act according to their biases, experiences, and their ego. They don't naturally act according to reason and logic. People can be taught to act rationally, but it is learned and not innate.

"No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." -Winston Churchill

My issue is this means that in a Democracy where the average man or woman is being allowed to vote, there will be situations where the majority are just not able to rationally decide for themselves what the sustainable choice is and logically figure out the answer which preserves their Republic. For example, there is no guarantee that those who argue about the government's economic policies are themselves professional economists or academically competent in this particular discipline, regardless of whether they were well-educated. Essentially this means that a directly democratic government may not be providing the most good for the largest number of people.

The only surviving Republics then are those that become representative, but all representative democratic forms generate aristocracies within their political parties until every party is oligarchic and undemocratic anyway. The people pick between two parties that are constantly in congress with each other and distant from the people, constantly aligning with each other by promises or mutual campaign financiers. In the Democratic Party, there are an increasing number of Democrats marrying Journalists who then attend the same parties, the same weddings, and the same birthday parties.

View attachment 2230686​

"It's a big club, and you ain't in it. You and I are not in the big club. And by the way, it's the same big club they use to beat you over the head with all day long when they tell you what to believe." -George Carlin

This issue wouldn't be a big deal if it were explicitly understood. People would understand that the news is just a tool by the rich to keep America to a certain status quo. That the class which makes up the staff in the legislative and executive branches are all intermarried into the journalist class forming a ruling class of bureaucrats who know how to work a crowd but not necessarily how to do their job. That Bill Gates was necessarily a congressional page before he could become a millionaire, which means social mobility rides on a certain course of offices and jobs in order to advance upwards on the social hierarchy. However the Average American is ignorant of the extent to which the billionaire class came from rich parents and certain social connections rather than pure hard work or rare skill set. Worse, this ignorance causes social mobility in the most general sense to die as the majority fail to understand how to properly ascend America's class system.

View attachment 2230703​

People stubbornly believe that the proper people get rewarded for intelligence and skill rather than their social connections, however this is the least true today and will be less true tomorrow. There is no changing this in the short term. There are ways to climb the social ladder, but less and less know how. People cannot be expected to understand automatically that their society has changed and the myths are no longer helpful in teaching you the methods of social advancement. For 'the most common cognitive bias' prevents them from asking the questions which would force them to understand today's America. They unconsciously chose to ask questions where the answer affirms their ego rather than proves their ideas were wrong. They do this even if it doesn't help them, even if they are genuinely trying to solve the issue, and even if they've been told already that their answer is incorrect. They will not choose to enlighten themselves, they will have to be forced to confront their bias. However the very structure of their society instead permits them to focus on their prejudices and shelters them from the information that would be used to wake them up to their surroundings.

The media shapes public opinion by supplying the information which the public then use to argue their beliefs. If the only information presented are the one's which allow for democratic or hyper-lolbertarian arguments then a false binary is created where COVID deaths should only be displayed until Biden is inaugurated. Where a motorcycle accident counts as a covid death because covide might have impaired the judgement of the driver, however neither the Microsoft National Broadcasting Corporation or Cable News Network will announce vaccine deaths by such a metric. Nor cover any prominent people who died within 48 hours of receiving the vaccine, even the J&J adenovirus vaccine. Do you think they are any different with LGBT issues, Immigration, or Race relations? They will never teach the public about the system that they are a part of. The system which is killing social mobility.

Instead they are loyal only to their sponsors, or in their billionaire owners who all vote one way. All the while they speak strongly about their press freedoms as if that is a guarantee of a wide range of opinions or at least a way of guaranteeing the whole truth will be broadcast. In either case, billionaires rule and not the average American.

TL;DR: The wise few govern themselves by reason, the average govern themselves by experience. Today the media largely give you your experiences of the world you live in, and they are all busy bonking Democrats and licking billionaire's shoes.

The video conclusion is kinda dumb about its cheering praises about the scientific method, because most fields are currently plagued by false positives, reproducibility crisis and that's mot even talking about some of the political stuff.

I figured out the fact that they were doing it wrong at 1:20 and also guessed what is probable rule was (though it could have been 100 different ones, but he answered quickly so it probably was something simple).

I also think the conclusions you're attaching to this are too strong. People generally don't think very clearly when there is a camera pointed at them. It is not proof of a general bias, just that people don't want to say dumb things that can go embarrass them later. A lot of ali g/borat stuff works with that camera dynamic.

As for the journalists and democrats marrying, that is probably more a CIA coworkers dating problem.

People do understand that the news deceives them. It's just that they don't generally have good alternatives. You can inform yourself online but it is pretty much a day job to sift through it all and get to the truth. So it's like, yeah this poisoned well's water is unhealthy, but it is the only water I have access to. And the water makes me weak so I can't go and get the water elsewhere.

And you'rea fucking retard for not seeing that this isn't a republican vs democrat problem. Remember when Bush ran vs Kerry? They asked Kerry "what should it tell us that you both belonged to the skull and bones secret society'" and the answer was "not much, because it's a secret"

In short, despite your long analysis you are still underestimating the problem.

 

[Stoneheart]

Im not sure about that... i think that people seeing stuff they think is right(moral) as smert and people who do evil as stupid is much more common...

the government thats seen as most evil by the public had the highest average iq.
meetings of Nazi leadership had about the same average iq as mensa meetings...

Bonus fact, the journalist had by far the lowest iq of them.

 

[Emperor Julian]

This whole thing seems to working on the slightly odd fallacy republics dont regulary win and the implication democrats are worse by ommiting simular issues with republicans and conservative media.

 

[Haim Arlosoroff]

the implication democrats are worse by ommiting simular issues with republicans and conservative media.

Democrats are far worse, do they argue Abortion from the Republican's moral rhetoric (Legal Baby Murder) more often then Republicans argue Race Relations from the Democrat's moral rhetoric (Racism)? Do Democrat Journalist-Spouses attend the social gatherings of Republicans equally to ensure objectivity? And this avoids the issue I raised that the Republicans are more of an Outer Party to the Democrats Inner Party, which means that of course they would resemble each others in sinning.

Both parties must be destroyed, other parties would more than happily take their place after an election. America would very quickly recover from a lot (although at all) of its problems socially and structurally.

 

[Fek]

Progressively more off-topic to the OP as it goes. Apologies:

People can be taught to act rationally, but it is learned and not innate.

I wonder if we're not on our way to it becoming innate in certain groupings of humanity all the same.

I also think the conclusions you're attaching to this are strong. People generally don't think very clearly when there is a camera pointed at them. It is not proof of a general bias, just that people don't want to say dumb things that can go embarrass them later. A lot of ali g/borat stuff works with that camera dynamic.

That's a fair point.

Democrats are far worse

Well, they're certainly portrayed as such, yes. However, they could not be allowed to push the envelope as they are without complicit behavior from the "other side" of the aisle, so to speak. You know how Trump speaks on the whole art of the deal? In particular, "the big ask?" This is all that's going on right before you. Democrats are typically the ones making the big ask, and Republicans are there to reel it back a little bit while still graciously losing so that the plan advances as intended. This is quite deliberate, as the power behind the throne is playing for the same side at the end of the day regardless of supposed partisanship.

So, who's the power behind the throne? Well, for one group of them: simply think about minorities that exist in the West with a ridiculously out of proportion amount of influence over it. Think about any given minority group that may actually have teachings putting them at odds with Christendom..perhaps to the point where they hate it and want to see it torn down forever.

Which brings me to this:

Both parties must be destroyed, other parties would more than happily take their place after an election. America would very quickly recover from a lot (although at all) of its problems socially and structurally.

It's not the political parties themselves that are the issue (even if I'm on board with your sentiment). If you want to weed out the corruption, then you need to destroy the system allowing the rot emanating across our political parties to perpetuate. Depending on how deeply you want to go, that can mean anything from stopping foreign interest groups from lobbying our govt in any capacity (especially through a proxy) to abolishing debt-based currency (read: the Fed) and beyond. Coincidentally (lol), this actually ties into your original post regarding the incestuous nature of the media and our govt figures.

You got a good start on things, at any rate.

 

[Lemmingwise]

Btw rereading the title... you want to know what the actual most common cognitive bias is? That for everything we hear, see, experience, we are at the very center of that experience, with all of our personal foibles, history, emotional circuitry and thought patterns.

We can not step outside ourselves, we can only imagine doing so.

This idea is both profound and overlooked; though we easily see it's true for others. I wish I had thiught of it, but it was relatedby Christopher Foster Wallace in one of his interviews.

Being at the center of every experience is an inescapable filter.

 

[Emperor Julian]

Democrats are far worse, do they argue Abortion from the Republican's moral rhetoric (Legal Baby Murder) more often then Republicans argue Race Relations from the Democrat's moral rhetoric (Racism)? Do Democrat Journalist-Spouses attend the social gatherings of Republicans equally to ensure objectivity? And this avoids the issue I raised that the Republicans are more of an Outer Party to the Democrats Inner Party, which means that of course they would resemble each others in sinning.

Both parties must be destroyed, other parties would more than happily take their place after an election. America would very quickly recover from a lot (although at all) of its problems socially and structurally.

Most of those critques are largely surface level or bollocks, The republicans have their own media guys and cultural institutions they use for leverage and that would be a critique of the media rather than the democrats. I really don't have any issues with abortion so don't care. The model of the republicans as the outer party vs the inner party is incorrect because their institions are very simular and both parties have about the same of influence and prestige. Hence why it swings back and forth in elections.
if the two parties where 'destroyed' two simular parties would emerge with a simular dynamic eventually. Unless you plan to restructure the electorate systems and force major cultural, economic and social changes which may not affect the country in the way you're hoping

 

[Haim Arlosoroff]

This is all that's going on right before you. Democrats are typically the ones making the big ask, and Republicans are there to reel it back a little bit while still graciously losing so that the plan advances as intended. This is quite deliberate, as the power behind the throne is playing for the same side at the end of the day regardless of supposed partisanship.

I agree completely. Where are the cultural institutions of the Right fighting tooth and nail like the Left does? Nowhere, they attempt and fail to depoliticize issues only and then fall silent in defeat. Cultural Entropy wins, Conservation adopts new battle-lines as the old are foolish to defend. Conservatives conserve nothing, hence why I consider them the subordinate player of a single team. The inner and outer party of social entropy, a single aristocracy formed from the two parties' leadership originally until the 1960s or maybe earlier.

I hate most that people willingly see it as a sport with two teams, it doesn't matter what the parties believe so long as they competitively chase each other straight off an economic/social cliff into the dustbin of history. Not the first, nor the last republic to have such feeling in it.

Depending on how deeply you want to go, that can mean anything from stopping foreign interest groups from lobbying our govt in any capacity (especially through a proxy) to abolishing debt-based currency (read: the Fed) and beyond. Coincidentally (lol), this actually ties into your original post regarding the incestuous nature of the media and our govt figures.

Right to the root of it. Pull the whole rotten structure out like a weed, even if you have to make a new nation, culture, and citizenship to do it.

To paraphrase John Adams: While I live, let me have a country, or at least the hope of a country, and that of a free country. My judgment approves this measure, and my whole heart is in it. All that I have, and all that I am, and all that I hope, in this life, I am now ready here to stake upon it; that live or die, survive or perish, I am for the Declaration. It is my living sentiment, and by the blessing of God it shall be my dying sentiment.

I am fanatically against the status quo of this slow decline and I hate the constant political herding to drive people to the polls

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Trump's as well. When did he ever speak about Jeffery Epstein? I don't think he once did.

Btw rereading the title... you want to know what the actual most common cognitive bias is? That for everything we hear, see, experience, we are at the very center of that experience, with all of our personal foibles, history, emotional circuitry and thought patterns.

Ah, the subjective-objective cognitive gap. I think I matter, therefore I am what matters. You can see why evolution would wire our brains that way since we all sexually compete for mates as well as compete for resources. I myself am not very comfortable with the notion of us cognitively putting the collective before the self internally within the wiring of my brain. I suppose that is the very bias itself, but as well it is the understanding that social order and top-down structures sometimes are wrong and the individual must work only to survive his mad society such as with the USSR or as a Jew within the Reich.

I doubt either of us are going to see Journalists or other social educators change the way most people think, on either of our biases. There is no trust anymore, I like the ideas of the left (although not always the liberal) but I don't trust them to use power in any way where I'll not inevitably be punished for being white, or Christian, or male.

Most of those critques are largely surface level or bollocks

Maybe Man will just ascend to the status of angels then, and the factors that I raised will not be the primary problems of democracy? To think that a journalist's willingness to put the interests of the community ahead of their personal family interests is a non-factor to you shocks me. I'll accept that you must simply be disregarding the difference between intermarrying and aligning-politically, especially in regards to how they work differently to form political cliques and the actual ways in which power and politics play out.

We simply aren't going to see eye-to-eye, you seem to think that Fox News and whatever you mean by right-wing cultural institutions (other than Ben Shapiro) will generate the same cultural weight over the next twenty years as all the leftist professional and would-be journalists and professors! It appears utter madness to me. If covid and masks are being politicized, as I'm sure you must be able to see, then where are the cultural institutions of the Right fighting tooth and nail like the Left does? Nowhere, they attempt and fail to depoliticize issues only and then fall silent in defeat. Cultural Entropy wins, Conservation adopts new battle-lines as the old are foolish to defend. Conservatives conserve nothing, hence why I consider them the subordinate player of a single team. But what do I know?

Life will produce a winner, either I am mad or you are. We shall see my friend.

Progressively more off-topic to the OP as it goes.

None of my topics stay on track, at least I'm not getting accusations of being a Doomer on my profile. Yet!

 

[Large]

Nothing exists; even if something exists, nothing can be known about it; and even if something can be known about it, knowledge about it can't be communicated to others.

Ergo, noone is rational anyways.