The Streaming Service Bubble

[WhoBusTank69]

Streaming services are ultimately not viable. Your product is the series, and when you shackle it to a subscription service that only allows customers to watch it until you decide to pull it they will definitely turn to piracy.
Netflix worked because it's a randomized grab-bag of media - shows and movies that you would ordinarily not seek out but can enjoy while they're available.
Cable TV is already dying a slow and painful death because you can't watch what you want without buying packages with multiple channels, and even then you have to sit through shit you don't want to watch unless you spring for Videos On Demand which is limited in itself.

 

[now watch this drive 911]

Valve's Gabe Newell Says Piracy Is a Service Problem since forever ago.

A significant difference regarding internet piracy then (2011) and now (2019) is the huge legislative changes to judicial powers over the internet (AU: TCN/TAR/TAN).

Predicting private networks will be popular, and illegal streaming / torrenting services will exist within those. The game of internet whack-a-mole forever continues.

U got a loicense for those bits m80?

 

[Uranus Pink]

RIAA via U.S. Govt. already fucked over and essentially killed off internet radio (pre-Youtube) during the 00ies. Cable via the SCOTUS fucked over the possibility of la carte for cable subscriptors about five or so years ago. It is expected the RIAA, MPAA, Hollywood and etc. will continue to fucked over everyone on and offline.

 

[HiddenFist]

At this rate, the cheapest cable package is going to be cheaper than paying for every streaming service. Netflix is already feeling it and cancelling their niche shows because they're a dumping ground for shows and films that wouldn't be picked up and shown on cable television /in theaters while; other major media conglomerates pulling their tv shows/films for their own streaming service. Piracy is just cheaper and convenient at this point.

 

[UnKillFill]

I'm finding more and more lately that Netflix is letting me down. They frequently don't have the content I'm looking for, have actually lost quite a bit of content I liked that they previously had, and their "Netflix Original" content is more often than not social justard bullshit. If they die, they deserved it.

 

[WhoBusTank69]

Piracy is just cheaper

You don't say?

 

[Idiotron]

Dude Troma has it's own streaming service. I think we will get one for everystudio before the bubble finally burst

Troma makes movies as cheaply as possible, they don't need a lot to make a profit.

You don't even need to be a major studio to have a streaming service anymore. DC's already got their own so they can host things like that shitty Titans show.

DC has Warner/AT&T money funding it. Also, that service might disappear when Warner's main one will arrive. No need for WB to compete with WB.

 

[Least Concern]

Okay, possibly unpopular opinion, but "gee, I have to subscribe to all these different streaming services to see all the shows I want to watch" is peak first-world entitlement. If you don't want to pay for another streaming service, then just go deeper into the stacks of the ones you're already subscribed to, or just fucking go outside and do something else. Do you really place such import on television shows that you feel your quality of life is impacted when you can watch some shows but not others? Jesus Christ, what a non-problem.

 

[Orkeosaurus]

I think Netflix is just banking on the idea that they'll have a big pull enough times within a 30 day period that people won't unsub. Like the Bill Burr special coming out pretty soon after the Chappelle one. The library itself is just absolute garbage, it's like there's nothing besides the main page. I guess it's been like that for a while.

 

[Safir]

You don't say?

There's always an opportunity cost, though. You may end up working for less than minimum wage.

 

[tehpope]

 

[ZMOT]

jesus Christ, what a non-problem.

that's some top grade reddit-level projecting.
I don't need to be subscribed to dozens of services or even want to, but guess what I can still discuss how stupid the current course of the industry is. might surprise you but most people are able to discuss shit from different points of views or stances.
not to mention the whole "hurr stop talking about stuff I think is stupid".

You don't say?

it's only cheaper if your time is worthless.

 

[Syaoran Li]

Honestly, I think Netflix is either going to go under in the next decade or will revert back to only the DVD/Blu-Ray mailing service.

Amazon Prime, I'm not so sure about. On the one hand, they've got all the profit from Amazon's other ventures and have a large library of content. On the other hand, most of the content is behind additional paywalls and a lot of the edgier content is often censored, especially if it involves female nudity.

The streaming services that do survive will be the ones like Disney+, WWE Network, CBS Now, and whatever services that AT&T/Warner Brothers, Viacom, and NBC Universal come up with.

Hulu might also survive since Disney owns the majority of it and can use it to put all the R-rated and TV-MA content they own that's not going to be on Disney+

We might also see some more small-scale streaming services that cater to niche audiences despite not owning their own content. Crunchyroll is an example of this.

Given recent events and controversies, I don't think Crunchyroll itself will survive unless they do a 180 and change their current censorship policies. But if Crunchyroll goes under, a new anime streaming service will inevitably take it's place.

Of course, Troma will keep its streaming services and I'd imagine we'd see similar services from The Asylum or guys like Roger Corman and Fred Olen Ray. Those kind of movies are cheap to make and have a cult following, and much like with Disney's ventures, all of the content is stuff that is owned outright by these studios and creators.

Piracy is on the rise for the first time in years, and I wouldn't put it past more people to run their own pirate streaming services or even online pirate channels.

Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if we see more efforts like NeoToonami.

For those who don't know, NeoToonami was a pirate streaming service that operated kind of like an online TV channel back in the late 2000's and early 2010's after the original Toonami went under in 2008 and Adult Swim massively scaled back their anime programming at the time.

NeoToonami often "live-streamed" pirated episodes of many TV shows that aired on the original Toonami such as Sailor Moon, DBZ, or Gundam Wing.

IIRC, when the real Toonami was revived on Adult Swim back in 2012, the site shut down out of respect and to avoid any potential legal repercussions.

As streaming services continue to lose titles and channel drift continues to get worse, I would not be surprised if some guy decides to say "Fuck it" and run his own bootleg streaming service/online channel that's meant to be in the vein of what certain channels used to be famous for (History Channel with actual history, TV Land as a TV oldies channel, MTV actually airing music videos, etc.)

 

[Jewelsmakerguy]

As streaming services continue to lose titles and channel drift continues to get worse, I would not be surprised if some guy decides to say "Fuck it" and run his own bootleg streaming service/online channel that's meant to be in the vein of what certain channels used to be famous for (History Channel with actual history, TV Land as a TV oldies channel, MTV actually airing music videos, etc.)

I'm actually surprised that hasn't happened yet given the popularity of streaming services, even doubious ones.

 

[Meat Poultry Veg]

View attachment 939798

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

 

[Least Concern]

Honestly, I think Netflix is either going to go under in the next decade or will revert back to only the DVD/Blu-Ray mailing service.

Why do you think Netflix, the current market leader, won't survive but the likes of Hulu and Crunchyroll will?

I suspect that, just like movie production companies can take a chance on a few of their movies a year being box office stinkers so long as a couple of them pull nine-digit profits, Netflix will survive with their mostly mediocre originals so long as they can pull periodic runaway hits like Stranger Things and Black Mirror out of their hat now and then. (Stranger Things is overrated pablum, by the way. Maniac is the true gold of Netflix's originals.)

 

[Gar For Archer]

Why do you think Netflix, the current market leader, won't survive but the likes of Hulu and Crunchyroll will?

I suspect that, just like movie production companies can take a chance on a few of their movies a year being box office stinkers so long as a couple of them pull nine-digit profits, Netflix will survive with their mostly mediocre originals so long as they can pull periodic runaway hits like Stranger Things and Black Mirror out of their hat now and then. (Stranger Things is overrated pablum, by the way. Maniac is the true gold of Netflix's originals.)

Hulu has the backing of media giants, not only in money but in content. Fact of the matter is, most people want subscription services to watch shit they’re familiar with - “comfort shows” - and all that stuff is on Hulu.

I feel like a LOT of content is gonna be leaving Netflix in the coming years, and I’m personally doubtful that normies will still want to subscribe to Netflix when all that’s left is their questionable-quality original content.

 

[Quijibo69]

What these places really need to do is to just get people hooked on a show for the first episode or two then if you want to see the rest of said show then charge them a fee. Like 15 or 20 bucks a season or whatever depending on the show.

 

[Dogs can't look up]

A person earning even a decent wage can afford all of the streaming services without breaking the bank, and drop services whenever convenient without penalty or inconvenience. I really don't think there's any kind of bubble from a consumer standpoint. It's all manageable and they all offer unique content.

Some of the providers are going to be hurt as Amazon and Disney, the big swinging rich dicks in the room get going in earnest, though. Cracks in Netflix's facade are already showing, for example, as their debt grows while output slows. Meanwhile neither Amazon nor Disney are going have any kind of growth issues for the foreseeable future - and Disney hasn't even had to actually enter the market yet to make their presence felt and affect the stock prices of future competitiors.

My opinions: CBS merges or partners with someone. That Comcast service will basically be cable on demand for Comcast customers, like Cox's service ended up being. Netflix will recede unless they bust out another Stranger Things level hit. Amazon and Disney will come out the big winners since they have endless money to spend.

 

[Syaoran Li]

Why do you think Netflix, the current market leader, won't survive but the likes of Hulu and Crunchyroll will?

I suspect that, just like movie production companies can take a chance on a few of their movies a year being box office stinkers so long as a couple of them pull nine-digit profits, Netflix will survive with their mostly mediocre originals so long as they can pull periodic runaway hits like Stranger Things and Black Mirror out of their hat now and then. (Stranger Things is overrated pablum, by the way. Maniac is the true gold of Netflix's originals.)

Well, as @Gar For Archer pointed out, Hulu has the backing of the major media giants and is less prone to getting fucked over by licensing and losing shows and movies that people actually want to watch.

Even with Disney+ taken into account, Hulu will still be used by Disney to house their titles with a TV-MA or R rating, of which there are a surprising number of, and even more with the Fox merger being more or less complete.

Crunchyroll in and of itself might not survive and in fact, given its more recent dubious policies, I suspect it won't. But if it does go under, a new equivalent streaming service will take its place fairly quickly.

Anime is a niche market, but also a very viable one if you know what you're doing. Hulu and Netflix have anime titles on their services, but they only have two exclusives anyone gives a shit about (Evangelion for Netflix and Sailor Moon for Hulu)