The UK referendum on the EU

As many of you will be aware, mounting disquiet in europe has led to increasing support for far right, left and separatist parties across the EU. In the UK mounting pressure from UKIP and longstanding divisions over the UK's place in the EU led to Conservative Prime Minister David cameron pledging to attempt to renegotiate Britain's place in the EU and then put the issue of continued membership to a referendum. His party succeeded against the predictions to win a majority government and as promised he has attempted to renegotiate and a deal has been secured with the referendum date set for 23/06/2016.

The issue is internationally significant as the UK makes up part of the centre right in europe and its removal will shift power internally towards the poorer south and east and away from the north. As the UK is a net contributor removal would also lead to either reduced investment in the net recipient states or a rise in tax amongst the contributors to account for the shortfall. It would also end a secondary flow of money from the UK supplementary benefit benefit system to families in EE and likely negatively impact life there. (a minimum wage job in the UK + attendant top up benefits is larger than the average wage in poland)

The details of cameron's deal are here:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105

the main points are a removal of the treaty commitment for 'ever closer union' for the UK and a tapering suspension of in work benefits for eu immigrants for 7 years.

The broad arguments for each side are as follows:

Remain:

The UK is stronger within the EU than outside as it has a voice on decisions
better trade deals with entities like china and the US are possible because of collective bargaining.
Much of the UK employment protections come from EU legislation
The EU is democratic as the UK can elect MEPs and has a seat on the council for their head of government.
The EU would penalise a british exit and any trade deal would leave us with less control over our own affairs a la Norway or switzerland,
Businesses would leave the UK for the EU.
Free movement of people is a net benefit for the UK.
The UK benefits from investment by the EU
The EU prevents russian influence from growing in ee
Paris would take the financial market from London if we left.
the relationship with the US would be harmed.
A vote to leave will likely trigger a new Scottish referendum which most polls predict would lead to a break up of the UK.
The ECHR's authority and the Human Rights act would likely be scrapped shortly after exit


Leave:
free movement of people has depressed wages and strained infrastructure as most migrants are low skilled and low paid.
The native working class cannot compete for wages as their living costs are higher than those with family in EE.
The vote to join in the 70s was made with the promise of trade union only and the Eu has explicitly become a political project.
The Uk representation has never successfully opposed a motion in the EU.
EU law has overridden UK government policy despite that government being elected
Britain pays more in than it gets out.
German leadership of the EU is wildly out of tune with public opinion.
The EU creates excessive red tape which is hurting british industry.
The UK is the EU's largest trading partner with a trade deficit which makes any trade war self defeating.
other countries have free trade agreements with the EU despite not being members (Canada, South Korea)
The executive of the Eu is unelected.
The CAP subsidises the French unfairly and prevents proper importing from the commonwealth of food which keeps food prices artificially high.
The ECHR's authority and the Human Rights act would likely be scrapped shortly after exit


The Battlelines:

Remain:
The labour party led by Jeremy Corbin who, in his youth, opposed the EU as being a Capitalist tool to keep workers down.
The SNP led by Nicola Sturgeon who have as an end goal an independent Scotland within the EU.
The Prime minister David Cameron and a portion of the Conservative party.

Exit:
UKIP- an explicitly right wing anti eu party led by Nigel Farage- notable for taking a significant share of the votes if not the seats in the last election.
Boris Johnson- mayor of London and one of the likely successors to Cameron. He is joined by another faction within the conservative party.
Assorted 'bennites' the remnant of the followers of the late Tony Benn on the left of british politics- this is where Corbyn had his origins.

Outside the politicians there is a split with unions, banks,and industry declaring both ways. The legal profession is likewise split however the inclination there is for the leave campaign. The Army and the Crown have not commented as is traditional.

The press is likewise split with the sun and mail backing out and the guardian backing in. the telegraph will likely tacitly back out.

Any discussion of UK politics online tends to include childish name calling 'little englanders, EUSSR, Camoron, Corbynazi etc etc'. I'd be obliged if we could avoid that- it adds nothing to what is an important debate.

What are your thoughts kiwis? in or out?

 

[Splendid]

But why? I don't see a reason how it would really affect you. Not trying to start an argument, I'm just curious to know your reasons.

I think it's good that a very staunch American ally has such a big voice in an international organization. That's all.
The UK is also culturally, socially, and economically more similar to us than other EU countries, so it's good that the UK has a voice within the EU. Otherwise, it would be dominated almost exclusively by France and Germany. Although those two are also very strong allies of ours, there are some fairly big social and economic differences there.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

I think for all the attention being lavished on the US Presidential election it's the UK's possible departure from the EU that is the most important election taking place in the world right now.

 

[XYZpdq]

I think for all the attention being lavished on the US Presidential election it's the UK's possible departure from the EU that is the most important election taking place in the world right now.

But the EU isn't accusing the UK of having a tiny dick. It's ratings death for TV clicks.

 

[LagoonaBlue]

As a Scottish person who voted no in the Independence Referendum back in 2014, I am sitting on the fence about this.

Also last I heard David Cameron wanted out of the EU and Angela Merkel was trying to persuade him to change his mind? Maybe I misread.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Ok, so. I'm going to lay out a few facts and figures here for folks to read and consider when they come to putting their cross next to Leave or Remain. I'll largely be laying out figures I've gotten from all over the place as and where I can. Some of it is also fed to me by friends who work in various industries and so I won't have as many reports and links to instantly point to. I will also say I am voting rather solidly for Leave on the back of a lot of this info and my own decisions and conscience.

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Spoiler: The City

I have acquaintances in The City who help crunch figures, manage risk etc etc. and the result they came to was it would be at most about a 3% disruption to the economy, so the potential drop of 3% in terms of jobs, investment and exports. 3% total drop for a period of maybe 3 years at the most (majority of the disruption would occur during the negotiation process) and we'd soon be back to normal in economic terms.

A good portion of this could be offset by the likely EU-red tape bonfire that would occur just after this period and the financial markets would barely feel a thing as a result of Brexit, which as they contribute about 35% of GDP would be a very good thing.

Fear of banks moving abroad in order to keep in the EU financial markets are also mostly unfounded as several banks have now put forward plans to open "Brass Plaque" Headquarters in Strasbourg and other EU financial centres in the event of BREXIT and this might mean a few hundred jobs will relocate to the continent, but all the infastructure is and would remain in The City as would the majority of the jobs.

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Spoiler: Food

So, what about food? We'd be able to buy food at world food prices as we'd be freed from the EU CAP, which inflates food prices by about 8%.

This means cheap imported foodstuffs and staples from places across the world as opposed to just from inside the EU would become an option pretty much overnnight. This could effect farmers in the UK, especially the struggling dairy industry but cheaper imports won't kill off the desire for british foodstuffs and staples. More subsidies may be necessary to protect agriculture but... well I'll get onto that in a minute.

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Spoiler

Immigration has become a major factor of the referendum debate, moving from about fifth else sixth in voters concerns for the 2010 General Election to first else second position for 2015. The Conservatives failure across two governments to cut migration down to the "tens of thousands" or even to a more realistic 100,000 a year is causing large scale strain on everything, from the vague concept of society right through to the housing market, education, transport and the NHS.

With the equivalent of the population of Cardiff moving here last year, and the population of Luton the year before that, migration is clearly at an unsustainable level as demand is vastly outstripping supply of houses and services, with emergency services seeing themselves running at crisis levels for most weekends.

Migration at this level is also meaning that younger or less educated people cannot cope for the simpler jobs, with the minmum wage of the UK being fifty times that of places such as Bulgaria and Romania and still higher than in Poland, but not quite enough for locally born people to live sustainably.

Even Stuart Rose (head of the Remain campaign) has said that in the event of Brexit, the minimum wage would spike quicker as people would have to attract locally born to the jobs instead of gaining cheap labour from the continent.

Brexit, and the loss of the right to free movement from the EU, would result in 100,000 being shaved off the figures within a year. Reducing pressure in a way that a lot of tinkering has so far failed to achieve.

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Spoiler: Influence

Talk of influence is something that is quite hard to judge. Far too many people assume that a lot of UK influence comes from being part of the EU, but the reality is this is the other way around.

A lot of EU influence comes from the fact that the UK remains a global presence, with British "Soft Power" via organizations such as The Commonwealth and cultural and economic exports being an enormous part of the UK's strengths.

The chances of influence being suddenly lost via leaving the EU are pretty unfounded. We'd lose influence in Brussels because we'd be the one that "got away" and they may attempt some form of petty revenge as a result, but with the UK freed to act as it pleased again, we'd be able to build influence quicker with targets than having to ensure the EU gets their 'fair crack' on top. Any loss of influence in the USA would last exactly as long as the current administration (which doesn't care very much for us as is) before relations would be resumed as normal. There have been cold periods before (Lyndon B Johnson and Harold Wilson were famously cold towards eachother because of British refusal to be involved in Vietnam and this lasted as long as Johnson's Presidency) and there will be again.

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Spoiler: Trade

Trade is another enormous factor. The EU makes up about 40% of our exports and this is shrinking every year. UK industry and services are sold globally as is and the EU has very little to do with this. We lead in the sectors of Car Making, Financial Services, IT services, pharmaceuticals and high quality specialized engineering and this supremacy is not going to vanish because we're suddenly outside the EU.

Did you know that there are perpetually stalled talks between Japan and the EU for a Free Trade Deal? I didn't until quite recently. The reason why is because a trading deal cannot be struck between one EU member and another country. It's an all or nothing deal and Japanese frustration, because the majority of their investments are here in the UK and would continue to be so due to similar business practises and surprising cultural similarities, has reached such a point they've suspended talks indefinitely.

Vote Leave intends to establish a Ministry of Trade on Brexit who's sole purpose will be the rapid negotiation of Free Trade Deals. With Japan as the number one target we'd have a new potential customer base of 1/4 of the EU's total population to sell goods and services to. We'd also regain our seat at the WTO (which we currently don't have) and would thus be able to vote and directly influence the WTO in votes as opposed to being 1/26th of a vote as we are at present.

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Spoiler: Security

So, security is trying to be pushed as a big thing in the Pro EU box. (That is rapidly being dropped in the wake of Brussels) as former heads of both MI6 and the CIA have now stepped forward to say the UK, would be safer outside the EU. Our security hinges not on the EU but on NATO, which has been the actual peacekeeper in Europe for the past 70 years, and long may it remain so. FIVE EYES is why we are kept safe as the EU and even EU members own intelligence services have proven woefully inadequate.

Security is already being rapidly dropped by Pro-EU bodies as people only need to open the paper or turn on the news to see how well EU security is currently panning out.

Slovenian, Crotian and Serbian police are currently reinforcing the Macedonian/Greek border... on the Macedonian Side to stop the flow of migrants across the rest of Europe.

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So, let's talk cold, cold hard money. The UK sends just over £20bn a year to the EU, and thanks to the rebate we get about £9bn of that back to spend on UK projects. Meaning our total sent to the EU is about £11bn a year.

Assuming a "nightmare" scenario of WTO tarrifs on all goods sold to the EU (at 4.7%) we'd be charged about £11bn. So, exactly what we send to the EU after the rebate.

The amount of goods they sell to us however, would net us £14bn in tariffs. Meaning that on just this we'd be up £12bn in additional money for direct spending in the UK. This would offset much of the benefits EU funding, protecting things such as RnD budgets, and allowing us to outright stop the need for further austerity.

So yeah, that huge ass post (which I have placed behind spoilers for folks) is why I'm voting Leave.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

But the EU isn't accusing the UK of having a tiny dick. It's ratings death for TV clicks.

Now that Boris is fronting the Brexit campaign, the odds of some media-friendly ad hominems being thrown around are pretty good.

 

[JU 199]

A good portion of this could be offset by the likely EU-red tape bonfire that would occur just after this period and the financial markets would barely feel a thing as a result of Brexit, which as they contribute about 35% of GDP would be a very good thing.

That's a little optimistic. Red tape isn't always a negative drag on operations, and removing some wouldn't be a net positive. Plus there's red tape you want (i.e employer protections)

You do make a good case for leaving tho.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

That's a little optimistic. Red tape isn't always a negative drag on operations, and removing some wouldn't be a net positive. Plus there's red tape you want (i.e employer protections)

You do make a good case for leaving tho.

Worker's protection isn't going to vanish overnight. That thing would be a hideous vote loser and could easily restart the entire trade union movement within a week.

There are however a whole heap of recommendations and proposed red tape on the horizon that is yet another attempt by Brussels to try and lash down The City, something we rely rather heavily on. This is as well as some of the Health and Safety excesses that are EU driven as opposed to UK and the HSE.

The EU makes a lot of our laws and this has regulations and the need to enforce them endlessly. This is out of step with the UK's desire for slimmer, easier to understand laws.

Generally streamlining or even getting rid of Red Tape tends to be a net positive, it's a careful balancing trick to be sure, but generally the less the better.

 

[JU 199]

More news

Also polls have tightened considerably in recent months.

 

[Lorento]

Also polls have tightened considerably in recent months.

https://kiwifarms.net/attachments/sg2-png.80175/

The most interesting thing about this referendum, aside from the actual results, is the fallout regarding the leadership of the Conservative Party. I think Boris Johnson is a damned genius for doing what he's done.

By placing himself as a de facto figurehead of the Leave campaign, he places himself on equal footing with Cameron, de facto leader of the Remain Campaign. Thus, he makes himself more visible to those who will vote him in as party leader in 2020. And where are his chief rivals? Osborne has been quiet since the budget, especially since there was a big resignation over certain cuts.

In short, I think this whole referendum is being used by Big B Johnson in order to further his own political ambitions. And I can't help but admire him for that.

 

[CWCissey]

I'm very much an advocate for Leaving. I really don't like the direction the EU is going in, as I believe it should be a trade union and nothing more. There's also the sovereignty issues, such as the European Court Of Human Rights being able to over-ride our own law judgements, and the lack of control over the borders.

As for Scotland, they can fuck off as far as I'm concerned. Their constant blocking of an English Parliament and the demand to vote on things that may benefit England that won't affect them in the slightest pisses me off, and we all know they won't go through with it, their idea of independence is still using Sterling for goodness sake! Good luck with their economy too! The SNP wants to base it on North Sea oil, which is nigh on bankrupted at the minute.

The most interesting thing about this referendum, aside from the actual results, is the fallout regarding the leadership of the Conservative Party. I think Boris Johnson is a damned genius for doing what he's done.

By placing himself as a de facto figurehead of the Leave campaign, he places himself on equal footing with Cameron, de facto leader of the Remain Campaign. Thus, he makes himself more visible to those who will vote him in as party leader in 2020. And where are his chief rivals? Osborne has been quiet since the budget, especially since there was a big resignation over certain cuts.

In short, I think this whole referendum is being used by Big B Johnson in order to further his own political ambitions. And I can't help but admire him for that.

Definitely. If Brexit happens, BoJo will instantly be lauded as a fantastic leader and will secure the leadership, coupled with just how damn charismatic he is the Tories would be stupid to pick Theresa May (his biggest rival) or Osborne the slasher over him. I'd also argue that his popularity with the people of Britain will help his cause, as although Corbyn's Labour is generally despised by the average British person, he has a sizeable chunk of immigrants, spongers, luvvie celebrities, lefties, and old school socialists to play with.

 

[Pickle Inspector]

I'm very much an advocate for Leaving. I really don't like the direction the EU is going in, as I believe it should be a trade union and nothing more. There's also the sovereignty issues, such as the European Court Of Human Rights being able to over-ride our own law judgements, and the lack of control over the borders.

As for Scotland, they can fuck off as far as I'm concerned. Their constant blocking of an English Parliament and the demand to vote on things that may benefit England that won't affect them in the slightest pisses me off, and we all know they won't go through with it, their idea of independence is still using Sterling for goodness sake! Good luck with their economy too! The SNP wants to base it on North Sea oil, which is nigh on bankrupted at the minute.



Definitely. If Brexit happens, BoJo will instantly be lauded as a fantastic leader and will secure the leadership, coupled with just how damn charismatic he is the Tories would be stupid to pick Theresa May (his biggest rival) or Osborne the slasher over him. I'd also argue that his popularity with the people of Britain will help his cause, as although Corbyn's Labour is generally despised by the average British person, he has a sizeable chunk of immigrants, spongers, luvvie celebrities, lefties, and old school socialists to play with.

I think Iain Duncan Smith helped end any chance Osbourne might have had, which wasn't very high in the first place since Boris is so charismatic, although he's still bookies second favourite at 4/1 to be the next leader of the Conservatives with Boris at 7/4.

As someone who is pro Brexit and votes SNP (Because who else is there to vote for in Scotland? Labour is the second biggest party and they have similar policies but also want to raise taxes for something vague to do with schools) I'd like to vote in the upcoming Scottish elections in a way which shows I don't want yet another referendum as some sort of threat to the leave side but there doesn't seem to be a feasible way to do that.

Personally I think if there was another Scottish referenum the numbers would be far more pro union because one of the major arguements was the price of oil.

Also I wish Labour would start being more vocal about the EU referendum, I guess they hope the Conservative party will pull itself apart but it's pretty ridiculous that the leader of the opposition isn't out there campaigning yet.

 

[CWCissey]

Also I wish Labour would start being more vocal about the EU referendum, I guess they hope the Conservative party will pull itself apart but it's pretty ridiculous that the leader of the opposition isn't out there campaigning yet.

I think they're a bit too busy with their own party pulling itself apart. Plus Corbyn doesn't really strike me as the type to actually give a damn about the EU, considering he's an old school Footite Labour man (translation: Communist), he's more concerned with pandering to Asians, terrorist organisations, disenfranchised and/or militant idiots and banging Dianne Abbott

 

[Dudeofteenage]

Also I wish Labour would start being more vocal about the EU referendum, I guess they hope the Conservative party will pull itself apart but it's pretty ridiculous that the leader of the opposition isn't out there campaigning yet.

I think Labour is trying to apply the lessons learned in Scotland, which saw a lot of left wing voters angry at Labour "sharing a platform" with the Tories. I think they're worried the same thing will happen if they start saying that Cameron is right about the EU.

Corbyn did give a speech about the referendum about a month ago, though, where he tried to square the circle of criticising Brexit without endorsing Cameron.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ot-on-same-side-as-david-cameron-in-eu-debate

 

[Pickle Inspector]

“I want to see a Europe that is about protecting our environment and ensuring we have sustainable industries across Europe, such as the steel industry, and high levels of jobs and social protection across Europe. His agenda is the very opposite.”

At least according to this news article it had the opposite effect:
"Councillor Redfern said: "In terms of business rates, the Council has been looking very carefully at this, however the barrier we face is that of EU state aid laws which prevent countries from unfairly subsidising one industry over another.

"The legal advice we received is clear in that the Council would be acting illegally if it simply stopped collecting business rates from Tata."

Anyway it seems to be quite childish to refuse to campaign on the same side, also during the Scottish campaign, at least here in Scotland, Gordon Brown was seen as one of the most influential figures of the pro union side.

I think the left leaning Labour supporters were more bothered by what seemed like pandering like when the poll went in favour against the union and both party leaders rushed up to Scotland making new promises, I don't see how separate campaigns would hurt Labour though, they don't have to go on TV debates together.

I do think that maybe the party realises that Corbyn's pro immigration stance when it comes to refugees (Wanting to take unverified refugees who travelled to France and more in general) would go against public opinions though.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

Anyway it seems to be quite childish to refuse to campaign on the same side, also during the Scottish campaign, at least here in Scotland, Gordon Brown was seen as one of the most influential figures of the pro union side.

Oh, it's dumb, but it's also what many Scottish voters said, and a big part of what lead to Labour's collapse in Scotland. Not to say that Labour's support wasn't effective at influencing the vote, but at the same time it obviously poisoned Labour's image in the minds of a lot of pro-independence voters, who previously probably had a reasonably positive view of Labour, even if they preferred the SNP. The SNP was quite successful as framing the independence referendum as a contest between neoliberalism and cozy Scottish democratic socialism, so people were betrayed that Labour was on the pro side.

That's not to say that Labour will find it easy to appear pro-EU while at the same time anti-Cameron. I think a lot of Labour supporters are enjoying the Tory infighting right now, and I can't blame them. But in an abstract sense this infighting is a sign of Tory strength (if not strength on the part of any specific Tory politician). If the Tories didn't feel secure, they would not feel able to indulge in this kind of vicious infighting, which is effectively a luxury a party can only afford if it has an embarassment of political capital.

I do think that maybe the party realises that Corbyn's pro immigration stance when it comes to refugees (Wanting to take unverified refugees who travelled to France and more in general) would go against public opinions though.

I think the party realises exactly how unpopular some of Corbyn's opinions are, that's why there's been a continued low-level insurgency against him ever since he became leader.

 

[CWCissey]

Oh, it's dumb, but it's also what many Scottish voters said, and a big part of what lead to Labour's collapse in Scotland. Not to say that Labour's support wasn't effective at influencing the vote, but at the same time it obviously poisoned Labour's image in the minds of a lot of pro-independence voters, who previously probably had a reasonably positive view of Labour, even if they preferred the SNP. The SNP was quite successful as framing the independence referendum as a contest between neoliberalism and cozy Scottish democratic socialism, so people were betrayed that Labour was on the pro side.

That's not to say that Labour will find it easy to appear pro-EU while at the same time anti-Cameron. I think a lot of Labour supporters are enjoying the Tory infighting right now, and I can't blame them. But in an abstract sense this infighting is a sign of Tory strength (if not strength on the part of any specific Tory politician). If the Tories didn't feel secure, they would not feel able to indulge in this kind of vicious infighting, which is effectively a luxury a party can only afford if it has an embarassment of political capital.



I think the party realises exactly how unpopular some of Corbyn's opinions are, that's why there's been a continued low-level insurgency against him ever since he became leader.

I'd also like to point out that Corbyn has a Nixon style list of party members he thinks are undesirable, and it's the majority of the party.

 

[JU 199]

I'd also like to point out that Corbyn has a Nixon style list of party members he thinks are undesirable, and it's the majority of the party.

Tbf every party has an internal list like that. Interesting how it got leaked tho.

 

[CWCissey]

Tbf every party has an internal list like that. Interesting how it got leaked tho.

I'm guessing it was one of his secretaries who really doesn't like him so gave the list out to the press.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

Yeah, Corbyn keeping a tally of who's for him and who's agin' him is merely political management 101.

Letting it get out, though, that's not good. (Although if such a list was going to be dropped, you'd have to choose the last month as the time to drop it, what with the political culture fixated with unflinching focus on the messy end of the Borvid bromance)