The UK referendum on the EU

As many of you will be aware, mounting disquiet in europe has led to increasing support for far right, left and separatist parties across the EU. In the UK mounting pressure from UKIP and longstanding divisions over the UK's place in the EU led to Conservative Prime Minister David cameron pledging to attempt to renegotiate Britain's place in the EU and then put the issue of continued membership to a referendum. His party succeeded against the predictions to win a majority government and as promised he has attempted to renegotiate and a deal has been secured with the referendum date set for 23/06/2016.

The issue is internationally significant as the UK makes up part of the centre right in europe and its removal will shift power internally towards the poorer south and east and away from the north. As the UK is a net contributor removal would also lead to either reduced investment in the net recipient states or a rise in tax amongst the contributors to account for the shortfall. It would also end a secondary flow of money from the UK supplementary benefit benefit system to families in EE and likely negatively impact life there. (a minimum wage job in the UK + attendant top up benefits is larger than the average wage in poland)

The details of cameron's deal are here:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105

the main points are a removal of the treaty commitment for 'ever closer union' for the UK and a tapering suspension of in work benefits for eu immigrants for 7 years.

The broad arguments for each side are as follows:

Remain:

The UK is stronger within the EU than outside as it has a voice on decisions
better trade deals with entities like china and the US are possible because of collective bargaining.
Much of the UK employment protections come from EU legislation
The EU is democratic as the UK can elect MEPs and has a seat on the council for their head of government.
The EU would penalise a british exit and any trade deal would leave us with less control over our own affairs a la Norway or switzerland,
Businesses would leave the UK for the EU.
Free movement of people is a net benefit for the UK.
The UK benefits from investment by the EU
The EU prevents russian influence from growing in ee
Paris would take the financial market from London if we left.
the relationship with the US would be harmed.
A vote to leave will likely trigger a new Scottish referendum which most polls predict would lead to a break up of the UK.
The ECHR's authority and the Human Rights act would likely be scrapped shortly after exit


Leave:
free movement of people has depressed wages and strained infrastructure as most migrants are low skilled and low paid.
The native working class cannot compete for wages as their living costs are higher than those with family in EE.
The vote to join in the 70s was made with the promise of trade union only and the Eu has explicitly become a political project.
The Uk representation has never successfully opposed a motion in the EU.
EU law has overridden UK government policy despite that government being elected
Britain pays more in than it gets out.
German leadership of the EU is wildly out of tune with public opinion.
The EU creates excessive red tape which is hurting british industry.
The UK is the EU's largest trading partner with a trade deficit which makes any trade war self defeating.
other countries have free trade agreements with the EU despite not being members (Canada, South Korea)
The executive of the Eu is unelected.
The CAP subsidises the French unfairly and prevents proper importing from the commonwealth of food which keeps food prices artificially high.
The ECHR's authority and the Human Rights act would likely be scrapped shortly after exit


The Battlelines:

Remain:
The labour party led by Jeremy Corbin who, in his youth, opposed the EU as being a Capitalist tool to keep workers down.
The SNP led by Nicola Sturgeon who have as an end goal an independent Scotland within the EU.
The Prime minister David Cameron and a portion of the Conservative party.

Exit:
UKIP- an explicitly right wing anti eu party led by Nigel Farage- notable for taking a significant share of the votes if not the seats in the last election.
Boris Johnson- mayor of London and one of the likely successors to Cameron. He is joined by another faction within the conservative party.
Assorted 'bennites' the remnant of the followers of the late Tony Benn on the left of british politics- this is where Corbyn had his origins.

Outside the politicians there is a split with unions, banks,and industry declaring both ways. The legal profession is likewise split however the inclination there is for the leave campaign. The Army and the Crown have not commented as is traditional.

The press is likewise split with the sun and mail backing out and the guardian backing in. the telegraph will likely tacitly back out.

Any discussion of UK politics online tends to include childish name calling 'little englanders, EUSSR, Camoron, Corbynazi etc etc'. I'd be obliged if we could avoid that- it adds nothing to what is an important debate.

What are your thoughts kiwis? in or out?

 

[CWCissey]

Of course this assumes that Japan would be interested in a similarly comprehensive trade deal with the UK, which is quite questionable. Let's hope that people in Romford and people in Tokyo share the same rosy views about the UK's central role in the world economy, huh?

Actually a fair few Japanese car companies want to build factories over here, and the UK is often seen is a strategic business partner in the West due to it's stability, economy and geographical and political positions.

Still, it seems pretty clear that the consensus here is sternly anti-EU. The consensus in the UK as a whole seems to be more mixed. Rather than back-and-forthing over the merits, I wonder what it is that makes British Kiwis so much more Eurosceptic than British people as a whole? Not that it is inconceivable that the UK will vote to leave, but if people here were representative, it wouldn't even be close.

I going to say that after some time on the Farms you become more adept at sniffing out bullshit, and that is pretty much all the Remain side has been distributing at this time.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

I going to say that after some time on the Farms you become more adept at sniffing out bullshit

 

[AnOminous]

Yeah, but that's kind of an unfair question, since it effectively asks "Aside from the main way they're accountable, how are they accountable?".

When that "main way" isn't actually resulting in it being accountable, it's reasonable to ask whether there's anything else. I suppose that answer is no, and that was why I was asking, because I assumed it was possible I was missing something.

 

[CWCissey]

Dammit, I didn't even realise I made a pun!

 

[Dudeofteenage]

When that "main way" isn't actually resulting in it being accountable, it's reasonable to ask whether there's anything else. I suppose that answer is no, and that was why I was asking, because I assumed it was possible I was missing something.

Well, it works in theory. But because voters don't really base their votes on what the European government does, the European government has little incentive to respond to its voters.

Admittedly I don't know how to change this - you can't just yell at voters to pay attention, and they're arguably correct that they should be more concerned about sending messages to national than EU governments, since as all but the most strident eurosceptic will admit, national governments are more powerful. And historically, when a set of elections are perceived as "second order", I can't think of an instance of that changing in the short term.

There is talk of a "European demos" emerging by which people will identify as Europeans to the same or even greater extent than they do Luxembourgeois or Spanish or Slovakian or w/e, but even at the most optimistic prognosis it's twenty years down the line and uneven, and it would be too broad a phenomenon to necessarily impact the way people shape their voting priorities.

Dammit, I didn't even realise I made a pun!

In all seriousness, I would be very sceptical about trusting the collective wisdom of Kiwifarms on this kind of thing. I don't mean to attack anybody personally, but I think if this group breaks so massively in a particular dimension, it would be naive to assume it's because one side is objectively wrong and another objectively right. Or rather, they might be, but I don't think we are collectively that good at detecting it.

 

[Lorento]

I don't mean to attack anybody personally, but I think if this group breaks so massively in a particular dimension, it would be naive to assume it's because one side is objectively wrong and another objectively right.

Well, its probably because in the actual referendum debate, both sides are not objectively right or wrong. The In campaign has a fairly good case, as does the leave and from the polls its clear that the tactics employed by the In campaign has started to irritate people. The gap is closing, not quickly enough for Leave, but it is still closing.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Of course this assumes that Japan would be interested in a similarly comprehensive trade deal with the UK, which is quite questionable. Let's hope that people in Romford and people in Tokyo share the same rosy views about the UK's central role in the world economy, huh?

You know, I never got this argument from people. The UK is currently ranked fifth in the world by economic clout. Fifth! Yet somehow, if we leave the EU this will magically become nullified.

Furthermore, the UK and Japan were the ones to push for the FTA initially, which proceeded to get bogged down in the usual EU bullshit to the point the Japanese have basically gone "Don't call us, we'll call you."

On top of that. There's that hilariously inconvenient FTA between Iceland and China. Iceland is 142nd in the world economically, and has a population in the entire country of fucking Wirral.

Not Liverpool. Just Wirral on the otherside of the Mersey, where the ferry goes.

But apparently the world won't be interested at all in trading with us, or striking mutually favourable deals, when the world is interested and striking favourable deals with a country the size of Wirral.

Just let that sink in for a minute.

Still, it seems pretty clear that the consensus here is sternly anti-EU. The consensus in the UK as a whole seems to be more mixed. Rather than back-and-forthing over the merits, I wonder what it is that makes British Kiwis so much more Eurosceptic than British people as a whole? Not that it is inconceivable that the UK will vote to leave, but if people here were representative, it wouldn't even be close.

I'm still holding off until after May to see if the pollsters have refined their methodology of slaughtering white oxen and reading scattered chicken bones before passing judgement on the polls.

I'd also say it comes down to personal politics. A lot of Kiwi's have more conservative leanings because of how many "left wingers" are also lolcows, especially the SJW and tumblr crowd who have stolen the progressive mantle and wear it as a cruel mockery to the ideals it was supposed to represent.

Suffice to say, I have friends on both sides of the political divide I can also say that I really don't know many bar a friend who works in the City and my Uncle that are going to vote Remain.

I'm even seeing people on my facebook feed I've not spoken to in a while posting about the leaflet recently delivered was a waste of money and it had nudged them to Leave just to spite the government. Cameron isn't riding much in the way of favourable waves right now, and the Remain camp is beginning to pay the price.

 

[Vitriol]

You know, I never got this argument from people. The UK is currently ranked fifth in the world by economic clout. Fifth! Yet somehow, if we leave the EU this will magically become nullified.

Furthermore, the UK and Japan were the ones to push for the FTA initially, which proceeded to get bogged down in the usual EU bullshit to the point the Japanese have basically gone "Don't call us, we'll call you."

On top of that. There's that hilariously inconvenient FTA between Iceland and China. Iceland is 142nd in the world economically, and has a population in the entire country of fucking Wirral.

Not Liverpool. Just Wirral on the otherside of the Mersey, where the ferry goes.

But apparently the world won't be interested at all in trading with us, or striking mutually favourable deals, when the world is interested and striking favourable deals with a country the size of Wirral.

Just let that sink in for a minute.



I'm still holding off until after May to see if the pollsters have refined their methodology of slaughtering white oxen and reading scattered chicken bones before passing judgement on the polls.

I'd also say it comes down to personal politics. A lot of Kiwi's have more conservative leanings because of how many "left wingers" are also lolcows, especially the SJW and tumblr crowd who have stolen the progressive mantle and wear it as a cruel mockery to the ideals it was supposed to represent.

Suffice to say, I have friends on both sides of the political divide I can also say that I really don't know many bar a friend who works in the City and my Uncle that are going to vote Remain.

I'm even seeing people on my facebook feed I've not spoken to in a while posting about the leaflet recently delivered was a waste of money and it had nudged them to Leave just to spite the government. Cameron isn't riding much in the way of favourable waves right now, and the Remain camp is beginning to pay the price.

I will be shocked if we vote to leave, personal opinions aside I just don't see it happening.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

I will be shocked if we vote to leave, personal opinions aside I just don't see it happening.

I'm holding fire until after May, as said. Right now the polls are simply far too volatile to make anything remotely likely. I've seen one that put Leave 5 points ahead, and one Remain that was 4 within the same week by different pollsters. It's slowly tightening, but ultimately it all depends on how bad mainland europe gets in the interim, and frankly? It's not looking good.

If the Eurozone craps out again (highly likely with France being the next target) then we may be forced to pay for another bailout, something the Leave side could make hay with.

There could be more terror attacks, which again is highly likely due to the EU's unsecured borders, after both Paris and Brussels there were significant spikes for Leave, and after Brussels it handed another point or so to the Leave Camp more permenantly. A third attack could probably swing it.

You also have the ongoing issues with the migrant crisis which the EU is still trying to force onto every member state with quotas after Germany and Sweden foolishly threw away any kind of standards and screening for potential migrants. With immigration now being the top issue for most UK voters, it's going to carry loudly if the EU finally forces through a quotas system.

On top of all of this, a German MEP keeps repeating that the european parliament might veto the british deal if we vote remain, this story is being repeated quite a bit in the UK press now as proof the EU and its representatives don't care one jot about our opinion or will.

In short, it's not looking good. End of the day it will be all about the turnout.

Leave will probably steal from the Tories playbook of the "Donut" strategy where they basically ignore most central urban areas (that are likely to be solidly EU) and instead focus hard on places that are rural or semi-rural where a lot of population lives that tend to be coaxed out to vote.

They can also now play hard to South Wales in particular, with the issues of the steel industry and EU rules against State Aid (that the Germans and French get around anyway).

 

[AnOminous]

On top of that. There's that hilariously inconvenient FTA between Iceland and China. Iceland is 142nd in the world economically, and has a population in the entire country of fucking Wirral.

Superpower level countries (like the U.S. and China) like these one-on-one bilateral agreements with weaker partners when we can get them. Unlike large treaty organizations like the WTO that can actually rule against us, the smaller partner isn't in much of a situation to fight back if we renege on it.

That's why we like them. I'm not exactly sure what the prison bitch half of the agreement is getting out of it tbh.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

A lot of Kiwi's have more conservative leanings because of how many "left wingers" are also lolcows

Do you think that this board overall skews conservative? I admit it often seems that way to me but I always presumed that was just my perspective - it's often easier to notice people who disagree and ignore those who agree.

I'm sceptical, though - the talk about the US election seems to be split pretty roughly three ways between people who are broadly conservative, people who are broadly anti-conservative, and people who are either apathetic or only interested in politician's personalities, not their policies. If what you're saying was true I'd expect to see a lot more dislike for left wing politicians there, but we don't.

(And there are plenty of lolcows who fall under the broadly 'right wing' rubrik, too - all those sluthate/red pill guys, for example. Of course conservatives will say they are not really 'right', with some justification, but one could say the same thing about tumblrinas not being really 'left').

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

I'd say it's a strong possibility that most Kiwis are centrist in the traditional sense. Right wing on issues of law and order and perhaps tacking a little more left wing economically.

That being said, there seems to be a fair few folks who're happy to disagree in a mature way, which is interesting.

I'd say the EU referendum is one of those few times where one's political leanings simply do not matter one jot, it's an issue in which you can cross the divide without any real issue or worry of a slapfight because someone wants to dot I's and cross Ts differently.

Much like Twitter is not Britain, the Farms isn't either. So whether we are a representative sample or not is pretty much moot.

Going by my own experiences though, I am surprised to find so few pro-eu voices among my own circle of friends and acquaintances, considering I do run with folks of all ages who are quite solidly Labour or even Lib Dem this seems unusual to me.

While I'd like to write it off as confirmation bias... I can't with as much ease and good conscience as I'd normally do. I suspect that the polls are still not using very representative samples, or are still skewed towards non-active voting blocs such as 18-24. I'd like to see how he polls compare to the May local elections, which usually have a 40-45% turnout. If they're wrong again then we can pretty much throw out all and any polls on the EU as well.

 

[CWCissey]

Going by my own experiences though, I am surprised to find so few pro-eu voices among my own circle of friends and acquaintances, considering I do run with folks of all ages who are quite solidly Labour or even Lib Dem this seems unusual to me.

Same here, I may be a Tory-leaning bastard, but I work in Oldham, which is basically Labour's heartland, I have not come across one person who is planning to vote Remain. Everyone I've talked to is rabidly Leave or leaning towards it. The Panama Papers, the leaflet, and even Boris Johnson leading the Leave Campaign has also pushed a lot of people to leave I've found, so I think the pollsters are full of shit again (totally hoping for another David Mitchell strop!)

 

[Lorento]

Same here, I may be a Tory-leaning bastard, but I work in Oldham, which is basically Labour's heartland, I have not come across one person who is planning to vote Remain. Everyone I've talked to is rabidly Leave or leaning towards it. The Panama Papers, the leaflet, and even Boris Johnson leading the Leave Campaign has also pushed a lot of people to leave I've found, so I think the pollsters are full of shit again (totally hoping for another David Mitchell strop!)

Johnson and Farage have both been absolute political geniuses during this campaign, even though I should probably despise both of them for their political leanings. For one thing, they've tried to twist the argument into a People vs Politician debate, the same sort of thing that has happened with Trump in the US. They've also been helped with some serious good luck, what with the Panama stuff. If Obama's visit here goes badly and he comes off as telling the British what to do, then the next few months will be very tense indeed.

 

[Splendid]

One thing that you Britbongs might not be taking into account when reading this thread is that some Americans like myself have been posting. Currently, most Americans aren't big fans of the federal government, and the EU is sort of like a federal government for Europe, so our views may be tainted by that.

 

[AnOminous]

One thing that you Britbongs might not be taking into account when reading this thread is that some Americans like myself have been posting. Currently, most Americans aren't big fans of the federal government, and the EU is sort of like a federal government for Europe, so our views may be tainted by that.

My opinion is rather different, any most residual approval I have for the EU is based on it being somewhat similar to federalism and, from a self-interested U.S. perspective, that a stable Europe is in the interests of the rest of the world. Strong European institutions support stability.

Americans have never been fans of the federal government (even the ones who invented it in the first place). Only nuts actually want to get rid of it, though.

 

[JU 199]

I will be shocked if we vote to leave, personal opinions aside I just don't see it happening.

I think there's a good possibility we could vote to leave. Statistics show the groups who favor staying in are the young, but only 50% are planing to vote at all. The groups most likely to leave are also the most likely to vote. That's a significant advantage.

Here's some news

George Osborne says UK would lose £36bn in tax receipts if it left EU
Chancellor says the Treasury’s 200-page analysis of the impact of Brexit showed it would make British families poorer

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...x-receipts-if-it-left-eu-treasury-report-says

George Osborne has said the British government would lose £36bn in net tax receipts, equivalent to 8p on the basic rate of income tax or 7p on VAT, if the UK leaves the EU and negotiates a bilateral trade agreement with the bloc.

The chancellor said a 200-page Treasury analysis of the impact of Brexit showed it would make British families poorer, and he accused out campaigners of believing that was a price worth paying.

The study concluded that a Canadian-style model, in which the UK negotiated a new trade deal with the EU that did not require freedom of movement, would reduce Britain’s GDP by 6.2%.

“Under any alternative, we’d trade less, do less business and receive less investment, and the price would be paid by British families. Wages would be lower and prices would be higher,” Osborne said.

“The most likely result is that Britain would be poorer by £4,300 per household. That is £4,300 worse off every year, a bill paid year after year by the working people of Britain.”

Osborne pointed out that a net loss of £36bn a year was the equivalent of a third of the annual budget for NHS England.

He said the study showed that whatever model Britain opted for after Brexit would result in significant barriers to the country’s most important export market, with 500 million consumers.

The chancellor was flanked by three cabinet colleagues – the work and pensions secretary, Stephen Crabb; the energy secretary, Amber Rudd; and the environment secretary, Elizabeth Truss.

The government analysis also looked at the potential impact of a Norway-style model that would require freedom of movement, and signing up to a World Trade Organisation model.


It concluded that the WTO option would lead to a £45bn drop in tax receipts, and a 7.5% drop in GDP, a position Crabb described as extreme. Even the Norway model would mean a £20bn drop in receipts and a 3.8% hit to the economy.

Osborne said the EU was Britain’s most important trading partner, and that under the Norway model free movement would still have to be followed.

“We are not Canada,” he said, pointing out that the deal would not include services. He said British families would pay a heavy price and would be poorer if the UK left the EU.


A Conservative minister said the analysis was unfair and biased, and argued that the government ought to provide both sides of the story if it wanted Britons to have a truly free vote. Andrea Leadsom, the energy minister, said remain supporters were talking down the economy in an unpatriotic way.

“This Treasury report is extraordinary. For a start, it is only looking at one issue, which is their thesis on what happens if we leave. A Treasury report that is a genuine choice for the people should look at the impact if we remain,” she said.

Asked whether the government was abusing its power by producing the Treasury document, David Cameron’s official spokeswoman said: “In response to the debate in parliament as the EU referendum bill was being taken through in order to become an act, we committed to producing this.

“In the debate in parliament, which MPs and peers were involved in, a number expressed an interest in hearing more about the economic consequences of our membership and we committed then to doing this.”

Gisela Stuart, a Labour MP and chair of the Vote Leave campaign, called for the government to speed up the publication of a report on the impact of migration on school places, after allegations it was being delayed until after the referendum.

“I’m deeply concerned to hear of yet another example of the government seeking to sway the debate by hiding inconvenient facts from the British people. This has become a clear pattern of behaviour, and it is ill befitting of a government that claims to want to have an open and honest debate.

“It is vital this report is released before the referendum so people can make an informed decision, and I urge Nicky Morgan to publish without further delay,” she said.


The former chancellor Lord Lamont described the Treasury predictions as “spurious and entirely unbelievable”.

“They say economists put a decimal point in their forecasts to show that they have a sense of humour,” he said.

“The chancellor has endorsed a forecast which looks 14 years ahead and predicts a fall in GDP of less than 0.5% a year, well within the margin of error. Few forecasts are right for 14 months, let alone 14 years.”

Vote Leave, the leading out campaign, claimed that the £4,300 figure was based on the assumption that the government would break its promise of reducing net migration to the tens of thousands.

It claimed that if migration did fall there would be no additional cost for families, and said the Treasury had failed to account for savings from lower regulation if Britain were to leave the EU. It also accused officials of failing to look at potential benefits from trade deals with other non-EU countries.

Matthew Elliott, Vote Leave’s chief executive, said: “The headline figures in this report are deeply flawed. It is not credible to make these claims without showing your workings or the alternative you are comparing it to. It also ignores the Treasury’s own analysis that EU regulation costs the UK economy much more, a staggering £125bn a year.”

He said Britain was the fifth biggest economy in the world. “If we Vote Leave we will also be able to do deals with growing countries like China and India which will help businesses to grow, create jobs and make our economy stronger.”

Another group, Grassroots Out, argued that the £4,300 figure amounted to 21p a person a day in return for national sovereignty.

I think this financial scenario is an exaggeration.

I'm interested to hear what everyone else thinks.

 

[CWCissey]

I think there's a good possibility we could vote to leave. Statistics show the groups who favor staying in are the young, but only 50% are planing to vote at all. The groups most likely to leave are also the most likely to vote. That's a significant advantage.

Here's some news


http://www.theguardian.com/politics...x-receipts-if-it-left-eu-treasury-report-says




I think this financial scenario is an exaggeration.

I'm interested to hear what everyone else thinks.

Of course it is, George has the Tory leadership at stake in this campaign, and he's super desperate for it.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

According to Guido Fawkes' mob the sums being published and pushed hard are from a discredited model:

http://order-order.com/2016/04/18/osbornes-equations-from-long-discredited-model/

Edit: Also the part where they use completely incomprehensible mathematical language to try and scare people into voting remain...

 

[autisticdragonkin]

I only am anti EU because I am anti immigration, and anti multiculturalism and I am not sure that Brexit would be a solution to either one