The UK referendum on the EU

As many of you will be aware, mounting disquiet in europe has led to increasing support for far right, left and separatist parties across the EU. In the UK mounting pressure from UKIP and longstanding divisions over the UK's place in the EU led to Conservative Prime Minister David cameron pledging to attempt to renegotiate Britain's place in the EU and then put the issue of continued membership to a referendum. His party succeeded against the predictions to win a majority government and as promised he has attempted to renegotiate and a deal has been secured with the referendum date set for 23/06/2016.

The issue is internationally significant as the UK makes up part of the centre right in europe and its removal will shift power internally towards the poorer south and east and away from the north. As the UK is a net contributor removal would also lead to either reduced investment in the net recipient states or a rise in tax amongst the contributors to account for the shortfall. It would also end a secondary flow of money from the UK supplementary benefit benefit system to families in EE and likely negatively impact life there. (a minimum wage job in the UK + attendant top up benefits is larger than the average wage in poland)

The details of cameron's deal are here:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105

the main points are a removal of the treaty commitment for 'ever closer union' for the UK and a tapering suspension of in work benefits for eu immigrants for 7 years.

The broad arguments for each side are as follows:

Remain:

The UK is stronger within the EU than outside as it has a voice on decisions
better trade deals with entities like china and the US are possible because of collective bargaining.
Much of the UK employment protections come from EU legislation
The EU is democratic as the UK can elect MEPs and has a seat on the council for their head of government.
The EU would penalise a british exit and any trade deal would leave us with less control over our own affairs a la Norway or switzerland,
Businesses would leave the UK for the EU.
Free movement of people is a net benefit for the UK.
The UK benefits from investment by the EU
The EU prevents russian influence from growing in ee
Paris would take the financial market from London if we left.
the relationship with the US would be harmed.
A vote to leave will likely trigger a new Scottish referendum which most polls predict would lead to a break up of the UK.
The ECHR's authority and the Human Rights act would likely be scrapped shortly after exit


Leave:
free movement of people has depressed wages and strained infrastructure as most migrants are low skilled and low paid.
The native working class cannot compete for wages as their living costs are higher than those with family in EE.
The vote to join in the 70s was made with the promise of trade union only and the Eu has explicitly become a political project.
The Uk representation has never successfully opposed a motion in the EU.
EU law has overridden UK government policy despite that government being elected
Britain pays more in than it gets out.
German leadership of the EU is wildly out of tune with public opinion.
The EU creates excessive red tape which is hurting british industry.
The UK is the EU's largest trading partner with a trade deficit which makes any trade war self defeating.
other countries have free trade agreements with the EU despite not being members (Canada, South Korea)
The executive of the Eu is unelected.
The CAP subsidises the French unfairly and prevents proper importing from the commonwealth of food which keeps food prices artificially high.
The ECHR's authority and the Human Rights act would likely be scrapped shortly after exit


The Battlelines:

Remain:
The labour party led by Jeremy Corbin who, in his youth, opposed the EU as being a Capitalist tool to keep workers down.
The SNP led by Nicola Sturgeon who have as an end goal an independent Scotland within the EU.
The Prime minister David Cameron and a portion of the Conservative party.

Exit:
UKIP- an explicitly right wing anti eu party led by Nigel Farage- notable for taking a significant share of the votes if not the seats in the last election.
Boris Johnson- mayor of London and one of the likely successors to Cameron. He is joined by another faction within the conservative party.
Assorted 'bennites' the remnant of the followers of the late Tony Benn on the left of british politics- this is where Corbyn had his origins.

Outside the politicians there is a split with unions, banks,and industry declaring both ways. The legal profession is likewise split however the inclination there is for the leave campaign. The Army and the Crown have not commented as is traditional.

The press is likewise split with the sun and mail backing out and the guardian backing in. the telegraph will likely tacitly back out.

Any discussion of UK politics online tends to include childish name calling 'little englanders, EUSSR, Camoron, Corbynazi etc etc'. I'd be obliged if we could avoid that- it adds nothing to what is an important debate.

What are your thoughts kiwis? in or out?

 

[Sanshain]

I don't live in Britain itself, but I am English, and have extended family that live within the British Isles. I've talked with them and friends who have visited from the Isles quite a bit over the past year, as well as a number of other English people who live in my area. Their attitudes have been almost universal. To sum things up:

1) They believe that the migrants issue is the number 1 thing motivating people to vote to leave. Indeed, many of them state that without the migrants issue, this referendum would not even be considered newsworthy.
2) They feel there is a tremendous amount of fear mongering and propaganda being thrown around by the Leave side, and condemn the majority of their arguments as being little more than personal attacks and defamation towards anyone who antagonizes them without ever actually addressing the points they bring up.
3) They feel that the Leave side originally intended to merely use the threat of leaving the EU to extract concessions from them, and that the movement has taken on an unexpected life of its own due to the migrant crisis.
4) They are very strongly against leaving the EU, believing it would be an immense upheaval that would destroy the British economy and prompt an immediate crisis within Scotland and Northern Ireland (both of which are pro-EU). One quite memorable quote I got from a close relative was 'This will make Britain long for the days of the Thatcher administration.'

Just thought I'd toss this in for debate. I personally don't live in Britain and consider it a fairly unpleasant place at the moment, so my issues with their staying or leaving the EU lie solely in how it'll affect my current country of residency.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

I don't live in Britain itself, but I am English, and have extended family that live within the British Isles. I've talked with them and friends who have visited from the Isles quite a bit over the past year, as well as a number of other English people who live in my area. Their attitudes have been almost universal. To sum things up:

1) They believe that the migrants issue is the number 1 thing motivating people to vote to leave. Indeed, many of them state that without the migrants issue, this referendum would not even be considered newsworthy.

I'd say the migrants issue has gone up the ranks to the top tier of issues because we're importing a city the size of Cardiff every year thanks to the free movement of people issue the EU foists upon us. All of whom need a house, a school, shops, sewers, electricity, transport, doctors and jobs.

2) They feel there is a tremendous amount of fear mongering and propaganda being thrown around by the Leave side, and condemn the majority of their arguments as being little more than personal attacks and defamation towards anyone who antagonizes them without ever actually addressing the points they bring up.

As opposed to the Remain guys positive campaign:

Losing £3,000 "per household" (over 15 years).

Or the laughably complicated sums they published that were debunked within hours by even the BBC.

Or the threat of the hordes crossing the channel if we leave because the French will just wave them through and onto boats. (Debunked by the French Interior Minister)

Or the threats of three million job losses (which the original report publishers states is false, and double that rely on British trade on the continent).

Or the threat of an EU-British trade war (The WTO prevents that)

Or the threat that cheap holidays and trips to the continent would be instantly abolished. (Debunked by Ryanair's O'leary)

How about the AA saying petrol price would rocket 19p? (Scorned by the RAC and FairfuelUK, to the point the AA's president was forced to apologize)

How about Spain threatening to cut off access to Gibraltar? (Damaging some 10,000 jobs. Spanish jobs)

3) They feel that the Leave side originally intended to merely use the threat of leaving the EU to extract concessions from them, and that the movement has taken on an unexpected life of its own due to the migrant crisis.

This was actually the Remain's side, using the threat of a strong leave campaign to try and extract concessions from the EU.

We saw how well that went.

4) They are very strongly against leaving the EU, believing it would be an immense upheaval that would destroy the British economy and prompt an immediate crisis within Scotland and Northern Ireland (both of which are pro-EU). One quite memorable quote I got from a close relative was 'This will make Britain long for the days of the Thatcher administration.'

NI is mostly pro EU because it gets its funding from there. Funding which comes from the British Tax Payer. Pretty much all the money we'd save from the "benefits of being in the EU" could offset any supposed budget shortfall. This includes the "disruption" to various subsidies from the EU such as agricultural ones.

Scotland is a slightly more interesting issue and is largely the SNP trying to make themselves relevant again as more and more issues and controversies stack up against them. They are sabre rattling as no country in their right mind would be able to win another independance referendum and then try and join the EU, which would be a lot sricter and require you to join up with the Euro.

Which isn't really going that well right now.

The UK economy is actually uniquely positioned and already adjusting to a more global trading role. It had to as it was expanding faster and better than the rest of the supposedly safe EU combined. Right now it's hamstrung by the EU's own external tariffs and the fact its a galacial organization whenever it comes to signing trade deals. Numerous countries (who would deal with the UK more than the rest of the EU) have had to suspend their trading negotiations indefinitely due to this piss poor system.

 

[CWCissey]

Scotland is a slightly more interesting issue and is largely the SNP trying to make themselves relevant again as more and more issues and controversies stack up against them. They are sabre rattling as no country in their right mind would be able to win another independance referendum and then try and join the EU, which would be a lot sricter and require you to join up with the Euro.

There's also the fact that countries such as Spain and Romania won't let them join.

They don't want to send a message to their own separatist provinces that everything will be hunky-dory if they leave the Motherland and the EU will accept them with open arms.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

There's also the fact that countries such as Spain and Romania won't let them join.

They don't want to send a message to their own separatist provinces that everything will be hunky-dory if they leave the Motherland and the EU will accept them with open arms.

Precisely, both countries quite stubbornly stated this is very plain language during the Independence vote.

I found it a bit distasteful at the time, to be honest. And frankly? I don't think it swayed many votes up in Caledonia.

 

[CWCissey]

Precisely, both countries quite stubbornly stated this is very plain language during the Independence vote.

I found it a bit distasteful at the time, to be honest. And frankly? I don't think it swayed many votes up in Caledonia.

Nicola Sturgeon is just a bitch. And the only reason the SNP did so well in the General Election was because of mass anger at Labour.

The SNP are a protest party at best.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Nicola Sturgeon is just a bitch. And the only reason the SNP did so well in the General Election was because of mass anger at Labour.

The SNP are a protest party at best.

50% ain't a protest vote, even if it's 50% in Scotland. The current feeling seems to be a lot of folks voted SNP in order to have a stronger voice in Parliament.

This appears to have worked as the Conservative Government (and by extension, party) is dedicating more resources to the party in Scotland to the point the Conservatives are making active headway as the second party of Scotland.

Something that if you suggested it would've got you a spell in a mental unit a few years ago.

Sturgeon is as canny a politician as they come, but she has weaknesses. She was absolutely hammered on the BBC for her record on the Scottish NHS where she aggressively cut frontline positions when the rest of the NHS was able to retain them. She cut midwives and other positions and the unification of the Scottish Police Force into a single, national force was also her idea.

 

[Vitriol]

Nicola Sturgeon is just a bitch. And the only reason the SNP did so well in the General Election was because of mass anger at Labour.

The SNP are a protest party at best.

I am afraid that just isnt true. New labour did very well in scotland because it was left of centre and promised to rectify the 'harm' done in the 80s via the democratic deficit by granting the scots a degree of independence. The snp are populiar because they too are left of centre and can put forward the arguement that they will act in the interest of scotland alone and not be constrained by masters at westminster which was a major criticism of scottish labour when it controlled holyrood.

A lot of scots, rightly or wrongly, genuinely want independence for them the snp is far more than a protest vote. They have been in power for a decade now and their popularity is only growing- that isnt a protest vote.

 

[Pickle Inspector]

I don't live in Britain itself, but I am English, and have extended family that live within the British Isles. I've talked with them and friends who have visited from the Isles quite a bit over the past year, as well as a number of other English people who live in my area. Their attitudes have been almost universal. To sum things up:

1) They believe that the migrants issue is the number 1 thing motivating people to vote to leave. Indeed, many of them state that without the migrants issue, this referendum would not even be considered newsworthy.
2) They feel there is a tremendous amount of fear mongering and propaganda being thrown around by the Leave side, and condemn the majority of their arguments as being little more than personal attacks and defamation towards anyone who antagonizes them without ever actually addressing the points they bring up.
3) They feel that the Leave side originally intended to merely use the threat of leaving the EU to extract concessions from them, and that the movement has taken on an unexpected life of its own due to the migrant crisis.
4) They are very strongly against leaving the EU, believing it would be an immense upheaval that would destroy the British economy and prompt an immediate crisis within Scotland and Northern Ireland (both of which are pro-EU). One quite memorable quote I got from a close relative was 'This will make Britain long for the days of the Thatcher administration.'

Just thought I'd toss this in for debate. I personally don't live in Britain and consider it a fairly unpleasant place at the moment, so my issues with their staying or leaving the EU lie solely in how it'll affect my current country of residency.

1: A lot of the arguments have to do with the free movement of people, on the news we often hear from the remain side it's good from a buisness standpoint and some politicians seem to think that should be a good enough argument but the problem is there's a lot of low skilled workers from poor EU countries so it's helping keep standards of living down since why would businesses consider raising wages or give them any form of job security if they can be easily replaced? Also we're not getting the kind of immigrants we want, it'd be better to have a points based system.

The migrant issue also is part of it, but a lot of is to do with the British infrastructure already struggling, there's lots of problems about lack of housing, school places, high GP waiting times and that kind of thing and for example on a political show today a pro brexit politician was commenting on the PMs u-turn saying councils would be able to rehome a few thousand refugee kids currently in EU countries saying if Britain can do that why haven't they done it already for the children currently in UK state care? And also would refugees take priority over those children so it's that kind of thing.

2: That's happening on both sides though, the people who I talk to (Who are generally politically apathetic) don't know who to believe, you just have to look at previous UK budget forecasts to see the government aren't the best at making predictions.

3: It was that but also the Tory party had pressure from UKIP to have the referendum due to having many eurosceptic members.

4: I'm from Scotland and the situation isn't as straight forward as it seems, SNP are undoubtedly going to get a majority but that's because they are doing a decent job, not because people here want independence, also the other parties such as Labour in my opinion are delusional in their policies thinking Scottish people want to pay more tax, in fact I think the Conservative party may get more votes than them. (Ruth Davidson is also a far better leader than Kezia Dugdale)

I think Scotland will generally vote the same way as non London England come the EU vote.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Somewhat related... and not good news for the Pollsters again.

Various councils haven't been lost by Labour and shifted as predicted.

Up in Scotland the Tories are nearly on 30 seats when they were projected only to be on 24. The SNP, expected to romp home to victory for a third term, now has to do a deal with one of the smaller parties (likely the Greens) in order to settle into their third term.

 

[JU 199]

I can't link now but brexit polling has converged again. Average Polling has put both camps at 50/50.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

Linked!

The upsurge of Brexit has basically eliminated the brief lead that the Remain side enjoyed. It also means that the "all to play for" mantra remains true. With Boris now freed from Mayoral duties don't be surprised to see Boris and Gove sharing more platforms and leading from now on.

Both men are tipped heavily for leadership positions in the event of Brexit, and while Gove is currently favoured by the grassroots, Boris has the ability to reach into what should be Labour voting areas, making him the election winning choice. Expect a likely dream ticket, with Gove holding a Great Office to lend his reforming touch to.

 

[CWCissey]

Gove For Home Secretary.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Maturity!

 

[Really makes you thunk]

Worth a watch if you think there's a possibility that you'll vote to leave, or are are just interested in hearing out the leave campaign's arguments. Pretty much explains why I'll be voting leave.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Meanwhile Remain politician insults the whole of the county of Derbyshire. Classy.

Second bit of news: The immigration figures dropped today. 413,000 more people. So we're not part way between Bristol and Manchester proper by population.

 

[Pickle Inspector]

Worth a watch if you think there's a possibility that you'll vote to leave, or are are just interested in hearing out the leave campaign's arguments. Pretty much explains why I'll be voting leave.

Interestingly doesn't even mention immigration.

Talking about immigration Corbyn brought up an interesting thing a few weeks back at PMQs which barely anyone understood the terminology of (Including the hosts of the Daily Politics until they looked it up) which is loopholes in the posting of workers directive that in non political speak means big businesses going over to the poorer EU countries and advertising temporary agency jobs at a lower rate than they are currently paid or advertised for here in the UK and then bringing them over at that rate of pay.

Clip of PMQs (it's about a minute in) -

Spoiler

Googling it shows that this has been going on for years and for whatever reason the EU hasn't closed this loophole, it's a shame Corbyn wasn't able to convey this in a more understandable way that connected with the public since I think that kind of information is something the general public would be interested in.

 

[Mettaton EX]

I find it amusing whenever Project Scare claims that we'll have no control of our borders if we leave. Oh please, we'll set up armed guards at the border again. If that doesn't work, we can just send in the army to fend off the hordes. A few LRADs and Microwave beams could halt the migrants pretty fast.

 

[Lorento]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36397732



Politicians lying to us? Say it ain't so, Committee

 

[XYZpdq]

claims that we'll have no control of our borders if we leave

Granted, I'm an American so I'm basically fucking retarded, but are we _that_ far removed from when the UK handled its own borders that people would believe it became some incomprehensible thing that no mere mortal country could handle?

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Granted, I'm an American so I'm basically fucking retarded, but are we _that_ far removed from when the UK handled its own borders that people would believe it became some incomprehensible thing that no mere mortal country could handle?

Pretty much a lot of the Remain arguments are that it would be too difficult etc.

There's a small problem with this whole argument back and forth, of course.

The UK still retains full border controls and the only country it doesn't have any kind of active border controls with is the Republic Of Ireland.

The issue is that, right now, anyone with a red passport can be pretty much glanced at and waved through because they're EU citizens and thus have the right to come here, no questions asked. The change that is likely to happen on Brexit is...

Not much. They'd just be made to queue like everyone else and asked why they were coming; Work, Business or Pleasure. They might need work permits for each as a result.

Unless we decided to go into a visa-free program which we already hold with other countries such as Canada and the USA on the basis that you basically agree to abide by the law for a period of three years.

Surprising numbers of industries and other bodies are now basically becoming increasingly neutral as the referendum gets closer and closer. HSBC's boss threatened to move hundreds of jobs to Paris in the event of Brexit, which had to be withdrawn because the shareholders basically told him they wouldn't allow it.

Most banks Headquartered here are planning small expansions/relocations into mainland europe, but it would be done purely as "brass plauqe" offices running minimal staff because all of the infrastructure is already here, and the City would be able to get the best of both worlds.

Most medium sized specialist manufacturers are not concerned upon learning the difference between trading with the EU and Switzerland involves one additional form.

One.

And most of their expansion continues to be global, not european.

Thankfully the government is now in Purdah so we won't be seeing any more ridiculous reports coming out.

The last report that came out was a "demob happy" one where job losses were now down to 800,000 (down 200,000 from previous claims) as a result of Brexit and foreign holidays would become exactly £232 more expensive. This later claim was instantly debunked by British Airways who pointed out the prices wouldn't change.