US deaths 2019 vs 2020

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Unassuming Local Guy

Unassuming Local Guy

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kiwifarms.net
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Jun 13, 2020
I decided to embrace my inner sperg and do some number crunching out of curiosity. I looked at the total deaths in the US in 2019 vs 2020, including covid data. What I found doesn't really make a lot of sense. Did I do this wrong?

Apologies for the text dump format, but I'm not really in a position to make a nice graph right now.

2019 numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm
2020 numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7014e1-H.pdf

All numbers are in deaths per 100,000 unless noted otherwise
All age brackets are in multiples of 10 (i.e. "15" refers to "15-24")
Data does not include under 15s because their overall death rate barely changed, if at all

2019

15 - 70
25 - 129
35 - 200
45 - 392
55 - 883
65 - 1765
75 - 4308
85 - 13228

2020

15 - 83
25 - 158
35 - 246
45 - 467
55 - 1028
65 - 2068
75 - 4980
85 - 15007

2020 (not including covid)

15 - 82
25 - 152
35 - 231
45 - 445
55 - 923
65 - 1818
75 - 4345
85 - 13290

2019 to 2020 absolute increase

15 - 13
25 - 29
35 - 46
45 - 75
55 - 145
65 - 303
75 - 672
85 - 1779

2019 to 2020 absolute increase (not including covid)

15 - 12
25 - 23
35 - 31
45 - 53
55 - 40
65 - 53
75 - 37
85 - 62

2019 to 2020 relative increase

15 - 18.5%
25 - 22.5%
35 - 23%
45 - 19.1%
55 - 16.4%
65 - 17.1%
75 - 15.6%
85 - 13.4%

2019 to 2020 relative increase (not including covid)

15 - 17.1%
25 - 17.8%
35 - 15.5%
45 - 13.5%
55 - 4.5%
65 - 3%
75 - .8%
85 - .4%

Relative impact of covid

15 - 1.4%
25 - 4.7%
35 - 7.5%
45 - 5.6%
55 - 11.9
65 - 13.1%
75 - 14.8%
85 - 13%

Several things stand out to me.
  • The total relative increase in deaths is actually higher the younger you are on average, after age 34
  • The relative impact of covid is lower after 85 than between 65 and 84
  • The relative impact of covid is lower at 35-44 than 45-54
  • The relative increase in deaths among the young increased by an absolutely insane amount
The only way I can reconcile these facts is that one of the following must be true:
  • I did the math wrong
  • The official numbers are not only wrong, but severely wrong to the point where most of them must be completely made up
  • Something is killing young people at a rate that even outstrips covid in the very elderly, relatively speaking AND the covid numbers are grossly overreported outside of the 85+ demographic
Any fellow autists feel like weighing in? I really cannot explain these numbers, so I feel like I must have done something wrong here. There's probably something I overlooked.
 
Maybe an increase in mortality among young people could be indirectly caused by lots of screening for other deceases getting postponed or camcelled due to covid?

I. e someones cancer would have normally been found and treated, but now it wasn't found until too late.

Not sure it the time period is long enough for that to show though.
 
MidUSA said:
Maybe an increase in mortality among young people could be indirectly caused by lots of screening for other deceases getting postponed or camcelled due to covid?

I. e someones cancer would have normally been found and treated, but now it wasn't found until too late.

Not sure it the time period is long enough for that to show though.
Click to expand...
Before the age of I think 40, virtually all deaths are accidents, murders, and suicide. It's hard if not impossible to get a cause of death breakdown by age for both years, but I did find that, covid aside, by far the greatest increases for all age groups were heart attack, stroke, and a category that basically just means "got killed in some unnatural way". Even if you quadrupled the stroke and heart attack rate among the young, it would still barely make a blip because it's already so low.

I think the murder rate went up so much due to the riots and lockdowns that it became mathematically possible to prove that government overreach was more harmful than the virus.
 
What is the difference between flu numbers from 2019 to 2020?
 
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