When do you think we’ll get into another economic depression?

[Jonah Hill poster]

The economy is doing pretty well, and I would hate to get back on another unemployment spiral. So I was wondering if somehow there could be a (slight) chance if there was another Great Depression on the horizon?

 

[inexplicable ethos]

Whenever the Federal Reserve deems it advantageous to create one.

 

[Edgeworth]

Bro why you keep making new threads

 

[Flake452]

I think as long as Bernie isn't the Democratic candidate I think it will happen just before the election.

 

[MrTroll]

May 11th at approximately 3:19pm CST

 

[Shoggoth]

According to some indicators, we may be at the precipice of one, there are two theories floating about, one regarding an inverted yield curve:

and one regarding the ration between short and long term interest rates:

According to both, we're about to have one any minute now.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/14/recession-watch-what-is-an-inverted-yield-curve-why-does-it-matter/

Bond market’s yield curve is close to predicting a recession

The yield curve, the difference between interest rates on short-term and long-term government bonds, has warned of recessions before with surprising accuracy, and it’s become a big topic on Wall Street.

www.seattletimes.com

A Recession Warning Reverses, but the Damage May Be Done

Investors are feeling better about the economy, but the yield curve has already predicted a recession.

www.nytimes.com

Recessions Can Happen Without an Inverted Yield Curve

In the past an inverted yield curve has been one of the best indicators of an impending recession. An inverted yield curve occurs when short term interest rates exceed long term interest rates. F...

avondaleam.com

Bonds and Long Term rates

We believe the multi-decade Bond bull market is coming to an end. We have been tracking the typical choppy action in long, and short, term rates for a number of years now. While many turned bearish…

caldaro.wordpress.com

 

[Quantum Diabetes]

I'm in one right now, I can't afford anymore Kodiak or Jim Beam unless I pawn something.

 

[The Fool]

I'm gonna cause one right now by buying up all the Monkey Nuts

 

[MrTroll]

I'm in one right now, I can't afford anymore Kodiak or Jim Beam unless I pawn something.

Technically it's only considered recession conditions if you can't afford Jim Beam. If you can't even afford Evan Williams, that's a depression.

 

[Quantum Diabetes]

Technically it's only considered recession conditions if you can't afford Jim Beam. If you can't even afford Evan Williams, that's a depression.

If you can't afford Early Times, it's time to kill yourself

 

[Daddy's Little Kitten]

I've been in a depression since I was born.

 

[Christ Cried]

Not soon enough

 

[Queen Elizabeth II]

Wait, you mean the last one actually finished?

 

[Quijibo69]

I hope we have one where the world burns.

 

[Harvey Danger]

Sometime in the next 6-12 months. Then again, I've been saying that since 2014.

Truth is, the economy is so badly fucked with, that we can't tell what it's going to do within a 2 year window. @Shoggoth is correct above that we have a lot of indicators indicating imminent recession, but we've had others showing that for years.

It's literally, seriously possible that the only thing keeping the US economy going right now is Trump bravado causing profitable chaos with Chinese/Mexican trade. American consumers are living off the bump in savings they started after the 2008 recession. Everything the Fed does is numbers on a spreadsheet that doesn't help the economy any more.

If things normalize, whenever that happens and for whatever reason, there might not be enough substance to keep the growth going.

 

[Comandante Marcos]

For the rest of the world, the last one never ended. That includes China. MLK Jr.'s son, MLK III, was quoted on the local morning radio news in my city (no, no TV in the Comandante's Bunker) saying that he believed that the supposedly wonderful employment numbers were (my rephrasing) pretty much pulled from Trump's ass, or that of one of his sycophants, and that black unemployment was still around 60% or so.

If that's true, and he's definitely smart enough to figure it out, that means that all the other numbers are fake too. In that case, you have a country where three cities-Greater Silicon Valley, Seattle, and Washington DC-are booming like gangbusters while the rest of the country rots unnoticed, with many places never having recovered from the fucking dot.com crash/9-11 attacks 20 fucking years ago!

So, you have a country where the "boom" is Trump Brand canned hot air and the zillions of electronic dollars printed in 2008 so that the Masters Of The Universe wouldn't pull the plug on civilization and fly off to their bunkers in New Zealand while the politicians get impaled on pitchforks. The rest of the planet is not feeling it, no boom for them.

Eventually, Trump runs into a situation where the hot air cans turn out to be empty, like that old Got Mylk commercial where the evil capitalist dies and goes to a faux heaven, only to figure out the truth when he opens the giant fridge and finds that the mylk cartons are all empty. Then the party starts. People suddenly realize that there's no there there, and hasn't been for years. Venezuela 2.0, anyone?

 

[A Cardboard Box]

For the rest of the world, the last one never ended. That includes China. MLK Jr.'s son, MLK III, was quoted on the local morning radio news in my city (no, no TV in the Comandante's Bunker) saying that he believed that the supposedly wonderful employment numbers were (my rephrasing) pretty much pulled from Trump's ass, or that of one of his sycophants, and that black unemployment was still around 60% or so.

If that's true, and he's definitely smart enough to figure it out, that means that all the other numbers are fake too. In that case, you have a country where three cities-Greater Silicon Valley, Seattle, and Washington DC-are booming like gangbusters while the rest of the country rots unnoticed, with many places never having recovered from the fucking dot.com crash/9-11 attacks 20 fucking years ago!

So, you have a country where the "boom" is Trump Brand canned hot air and the zillions of electronic dollars printed in 2008 so that the Masters Of The Universe wouldn't pull the plug on civilization and fly off to their bunkers in New Zealand while the politicians get impaled on pitchforks. The rest of the planet is not feeling it, no boom for them.

Eventually, Trump runs into a situation where the hot air cans turn out to be empty, like that old Got Mylk commercial where the evil capitalist dies and goes to a faux heaven, only to figure out the truth when he opens the giant fridge and finds that the mylk cartons are all empty. Then the party starts. People suddenly realize that there's no there there, and hasn't been for years. Venezuela 2.0, anyone?

Yeah well MLK 3 is retarded and wrong. The economy is fine and economic indicators are useless. In fact, indicators are so useless that they may precipitate a recession in of themselves. The bottom 20% of wages are increasing faster than the top 10% for the first time since 2008 because everyone that wants a job has one, so companies are trying to make their entry level work look more appealing. McDonald's is offering paid leave and quarterly bonuses, with $250 referral bonuses if your friend gets hired. Taco Bell offers tuition assistance. Some Walmarts are starting to pay their stock boys $15/hr.

Gen Z is poised to take over the housing market when the baby boomers fucking die because the millenials skipped out on home ownership altogether, so the housing market will be strong for the foreseeable future.

My TSP account gained 37 percent in FY2020. 37 FUCKING percent. Millennials may actually be able to retire after all even after all the doom and gloom of pension collapses in 2009.

If you're a middle class American, things are looking good for the first time since 2008.

 

[Agent Abe Caprine]

Half past the monkey's ass.

 

[???]

It really doesn't matter for the vast majority of Americans if there's a recession or not. When I graduated in the 2000s everyone was talking about a recession - coincidentally while Bush II was in, as soon as Obama became President the media blathered endlessly about how great the "economy" was. Now that Trump is in office, all the rat-faced men and women in the media are speaking solemnly of ominous signs that the "economy" is doing mysterious things which of course only they - our priestly caste - can see and interpret correctly.

What I learned from my experiences is that when the "economy" is "good", foreigners are imported and jobs are shipped overseas because "job creators" can't find enough people to work 80 hours a week at $2 an hour. When the "economy" is "bad", foreigners are imported and jobs are shipped overseas because "job creators" can't afford to lose money when demand is down.

According to the media, corporate profits matter more than the prosperity of the people who make up this nation. Driving down wages, eliminating benefits and pensions, and removing worker protections are necessary and useful because Americans are lazy and need to get off their asses and find some bootstraps. The media are absolutely not low IQ whores who exist to push corporate propaganda.

The "economy" is probably bullshit.

 

[FlappyBat]

One thing I've always found interesting is tracking betting markets. ElectionBettingOdds is tracking the current odds of having a recession this year. They have it marked at just over 84% chance of no recession this year. They track the bets on BetFair and PredictIt.