When do you think we’ll get into another economic depression?

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TerribleIdeas™ said:
God, I hope millennial and Gen Z commies try to start revolutions, so they can get the beatings their parents were too chickenshit to hand out.
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FlappyBat said:
One thing I've always found interesting is tracking betting markets. ElectionBettingOdds is tracking the current odds of having a recession this year. They have it marked at just over 84% chance of no recession this year. They track the bets on BetFair and PredictIt.
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Betting markets, from what I’ve heard, are way better at predicting trends than most other methods.
 
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YayLasagna said:
I hope you're right. :(
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I still don't think it will be hyper prolonged, if we're just dealing with fallout from the coronavirus. Life has changed from depression times and we're likely to rebound more quickly.
The concern right now is will China pounce on weak nations as predicted by their bitches at The Imperial College or will countries resist?

It depends on what we're actually dealing with here. Is it merely a virus or is it a new type of war? What are the true motives of the UN and co?
Atm it's not as clear cut on what we're dealing with. If lockdowns last long times, civil unrest will arise and shake the market further. If that's by design... a depression isn't going to be our first concern.
 
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heathercho said:
I don't think corona chan will be the big destroyer econodoomers hope it is, tbh.
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It will be part of it though. Banks are going to be seeing billions of dollars in terms of interest rates as even though people don't have to pay for their mortgages right now, interest rates still go up. Also, Where I live, any money the government helps you with has to be paid back, luckily with no interest. That means that all that time you're not working you lost thousands of dollars due to government, corporate bullshit all so that they can make more money off of you.

Food has also been going up more due to this bullshit (between 10-20% and also due to Saudi Arabia pumping out more oil, dropping the price of oil. While it's nice to see gas back to 56.4 cents a litter, its not helping anyone due to travel bans (I doubt that a coincidence). Cheap gas prices like this are a good time to travel around if you're looking for work, too bad you're not supposed to.

Luckily though there's no instance of people going off and buying more property during this so we wont see the 2008 recession again, unluckily we have the US government pissing off the rest of the world more than usual. Also, there are a lot more angry people out there who are fed up with all of this bullshit and are getting more and more violent by the day.
 
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FlappyBat said:
One thing I've always found interesting is tracking betting markets. ElectionBettingOdds is tracking the current odds of having a recession this year. They have it marked at just over 84% chance of no recession this year. They track the bets on BetFair and PredictIt.
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If those were the results back then, it sure is a pretty dramatic reversal in this short time.
 
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PepsiVanilla said:
Yeah but I'm still a bit surprised just how lopsided it is now, since a lot of people seem to think the worst of the economic consequences have already passed.

I keep seeing a lot of "It'S aLrEaDy PrIcEd In" and such.
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I still have not forgotten that Vegas fucked up in 2016 either; Sometimes betting markets just go full retard in their predictions and end up completely wrong.
 
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ConfederateIrishman said:
I still have not forgotten that Vegas fucked up in 2016 either; Sometimes betting markets just go full exceptional individual in their predictions and end up completely wrong.
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True, but a lot of these betting markets often use straw polls as part of their calculations, and right up until the end of October 2016, everyone thought Hillary was the likely winner and everyone had predicted since before 2015 that Hillary would likely succeed Obama and that Jeb Bush was the most likely Republican candidate.

When Trump announced his candidacy in the summer of 2015, he was largely seen as a joke and even 4chan backed him mostly as an ironic meme candidate at first like they did with Yang in this election cycle.

But Trump knew how to work the crowds and the GOP decided to take a gamble and pick him as their 2016 candidate to pacify their base since Jeb bowed out and they thought they would lose to the Democrats anyway.

But Trump was in it to win it and Hillary was ultimately doomed by her own hubris.

I still think Trump is more likely to win 2020 than Biden right now, but it will be a lot more close thanks to the pandemic and if Biden gets a VP that isn't completely toxic and flips enough of the big swing states like Ohio, Florida, and Michigan, he could win in 2020.

Either way, it's going to be a close fucking election and it will all come down to who can get more turnout and just how bad this pandemic will get by November.

Seriously, COVID-19 is going to be a major black swan event and I think it will likely be a bigger game changer than the Great Recession of the late 2000's was.
 
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Syaoran Li said:
Either way, it's going to be a close fucking election and it will all come down to who can get more turnout and just how bad this pandemic will get by November.
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I heard the Democrats plan to somehow try and make the coronapanic last until November so people will use tamper-friendly mail-in ballots, so Biden will be a shoe-in. I don't know how plausible that theory is though.
 
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At this point there is little doubt that a recession looms., the extent of which remains uncertain. The big questions for me are inflation or deflation and will real estate take a hit again? I am trying to use my quarantine to prepare for both possibilities so that I will be in a good position come what may.

I would be interested in other Kiwi's opinions on the matter.
 
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Syaoran Li said:
I still think Trump is more likely to win 2020 than Biden right now, but it will be a lot more close thanks to the pandemic and if Biden gets a VP that isn't completely toxic and flips enough of the big swing states like Ohio, Florida, and Michigan, he could win in 2020.
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I honestly can't see Biden winning regardless, especially when Trump gets done with him during the debates, but from what I've read his likely VP pick is Kamala Harris, and I literally cannot think of a VP that would suppress Democratic voter turnout more,(Other than Mini-Mike Bloomberg, that is)than the woman who made it her personal mission in life to imprison black people for as long as possible regardless of the crime.
 
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