pokemonguy
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2025
three years ago someone asked a similar question and the plurality vote was that the U.S. would collapse between 2020-2025 (majority by 2030). my apologies if this is too much of a repeat post, but i did want to both check-in and re-ask in a more precise fashion, given that we can often conflate collapse with either descent into greater levels of crime and economic desperation and/or overt federal fascism -- both of which will likely precede and follow collapse, but to me neither of such shifts define it (in other words, the further political consolidation and radicalization of U.S. political structures into overt fascism does not constitute nor necessitate collapse).
my understanding of collapse is a total or substantial political disintegration of the U.S. -- it would entail all these characteristics in de juro fashion (legally acknowledged by federal actors such as the president or congress) and/or de facto fashion (popularly recognized and acted upon by a majority of the U.S. population):
the loss of centralized/federal political rule of the population of the current U.S. and its territories (i.e. legal or functional transfer of supreme control over its people to other political entities)
the end of the federal government's ultimate monopoly on legitimate use of force/violence, either through widespread resistance by local political entities and its constituents and/or the large-scale dissolution of U.S. armed forces and law enforcement
the political division of U.S. territory, through successful autonomous movements (e.g. EZLN or Rojava), cecession movements (e.g. California or Texas state cecession), forced balkanization or absorption into other regimes (e.g. after war)
the overwhelming termination of extant federal social services such as healthcare, food, transportation, housing, infrastructure, etc. (e.g. a 90% drop in farmer subsidy programs, the end of federal funding to maintain interstate highways, the collapse of numerous, regional hospital systems from the end of federal support, all happening simultaneously)
by my definition collapse hasn't happened yet, though we are definitely beginning to see degrees of some and seeds of others. so i would love to hear an updated vote and discussion from the hivemind: when will the U.S. collapse? and why then? extra points for arguments with citations
my understanding of collapse is a total or substantial political disintegration of the U.S. -- it would entail all these characteristics in de juro fashion (legally acknowledged by federal actors such as the president or congress) and/or de facto fashion (popularly recognized and acted upon by a majority of the U.S. population):
the loss of centralized/federal political rule of the population of the current U.S. and its territories (i.e. legal or functional transfer of supreme control over its people to other political entities)
the end of the federal government's ultimate monopoly on legitimate use of force/violence, either through widespread resistance by local political entities and its constituents and/or the large-scale dissolution of U.S. armed forces and law enforcement
the political division of U.S. territory, through successful autonomous movements (e.g. EZLN or Rojava), cecession movements (e.g. California or Texas state cecession), forced balkanization or absorption into other regimes (e.g. after war)
the overwhelming termination of extant federal social services such as healthcare, food, transportation, housing, infrastructure, etc. (e.g. a 90% drop in farmer subsidy programs, the end of federal funding to maintain interstate highways, the collapse of numerous, regional hospital systems from the end of federal support, all happening simultaneously)
by my definition collapse hasn't happened yet, though we are definitely beginning to see degrees of some and seeds of others. so i would love to hear an updated vote and discussion from the hivemind: when will the U.S. collapse? and why then? extra points for arguments with citations
