Which Southern state will be the first to shift blue? Which is the least likely to do so?

[Y2K Baby]

See, I don’t know about Alabama and Mississippi never turning blue. They have a lot of minorities, and with a decreasing white population, I could see them making the shift to blue, even without college grads and people escaping the coastal hellholes.

Minorities =/= democrats.

 

[Jan_Hus]

This isn't really a fair comparison and is one of my most hated idiot history gotchas (not that's that what you were doing) because ideologically the Democrat party of the 19th century was vastly different to how it is today. It wasn't that moods changed, it was that the labels changed.

That said, Tennessee is my bet. A shitload of money is currently going into development there, and it's actively being marketed to west coast yuppies due to a fledgling tech scene and completely manufactured naturalist/environmentalist culture. Mississippi is probably the most rigid, nobody wants to touch Mississippi.

I'm speaking moreso of the twentieth century, like Kennedy and Carter, both of whom had more traditional "left-wing" platforms. But you're right about the labels changing

 

[Picnic_Boy]

Blue man bad.

There are men on the Left?

 

[ProgKing of the North]

There are men on the Left?

have you forgotten about Anthony's Wiener already?

 

[Rand /pol/]

If this CGP Grey video about Texas is true, I could see Texas splitting up into two states before it turns blue.

 

[JM 590]

View attachment 719630

I tried Brain Force Plus once actually

didn't work

 

[ForgedBlades]

Periodic reminder that this is a blue state.

 

[Crunchy Leaf]

As a Southerner myself, here's my take on the matter. I'm defining the "South" as the former Confederate states and territories (Virginia, Tennessee, The Carolinas, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, and Arizona), plus Kentucky.

I deliberately left out West Virginia in this analysis, because it was a major swing state for the longest time before becoming a Republican stronghold during the Obama and Trump years. Also, West Virginia is kind of a geographic and cultural anomaly in which region it belongs to. West Virginia was a loyal Union stronghold during the Civil War (which is how it achieved statehood) and is more "Appalachian" than generic "Southern".

Depending on who you ask, West Virginia is either the northernmost Southern state or the southernmost Northern state.

Of the states that make up the Old South, I'd say either Virginia or Florida will turn solid blue.

Both are already major swing states now but were former ironclad red states.

Virginia in particular is noteworthy for being one of the only Southern states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and is also trying to distance itself from being a "Southern" state and trying to re-identify as a "Mid-Atlantic" state. As a Virginian (I know, TMI) I have been witnessing the transformation of the political landscape in my state. When I was a kid, Virginia was solidly Republican, and by the time I graduated high school, it was a wild card swing state.

This "Mid-Atlantic" swing state mentality is especially true of the Northern Virginia suburbs near Washington DC, as well as Richmond, Charlottesville, and the coastal Tidewater cities (Norfolk, Newport News, Virginia Beach, etc.), although you even see similar sentiments in the centrist areas like Roanoke and the New River Valley college towns.

Granted, there are still some staunchly conservative areas of Virginia such as the Coalfields (the counties of Wise, Dickenson, Russell, Buchanan, and Tazewell), the Virginia side of the Tri-Cities (Abingdon, Gate City, etc.) and especially Lynchburg, home of Jerry Falwell and Liberty University.

There are also a few areas of Virginia that are the most "swing state" of all with an overall centrist political climate. The Roanoke Valley area is probably the most noticeable of these areas, although from what U have observed the Staunton/Waynesboro is fairly centrist as well.

Give it ten years and Virginia will be a blue state with Lynchburg as the only major Republican stronghold (sort of an inverse of Texas, a solidly red state with Austin as a left-wing stronghold)

Texas is kind of iffy, because while Austin is practically the Portland of the South and you have a very high concentration of Latinos, I get the feeling that most of the Latinos who would actively and regularly vote are more in line with conservative or centrist platforms, especially since Texas doesn't have Sanctuary Cities and unlike California, has strict voter ID laws making it harder for undocumented immigrants to vote (notably, this tactic has helped the Democrats control rural California).

Most Latinos tend to be devout Catholics and are ideologically more in line with the GOP compared to the liberal Democrats, especially the newer "Justice Democrats", but largely vote Democrat due to fear-mongering tactics from both parties regarding immigration. Tellingly, a lot of legal immigrants and third-generation and fourth-generation Latino Americans don't like illegals, the sentiment is stronger outside of the major coastal cities.

If it weren't for the uproar regarding ICE and Trump's wall, I'd say most of the Latinos in Texas that can legally vote, would probably go Republican, especially older Latinos (Boomers and Gen X'ers) and they're more likely to vote on a consistent basis anyway, especially in state and local elections.

Tennessee and Georgia do have a chance of going blue, but not before Virginia and Florida. Once those two states go full blue, then I could definitely see Tennessee and Georgia becoming major swing states similar to how Florida and Virginia are now.

North Carolina and Kentucky will probably remain Republican, although I could see specific cities and large towns becoming more "purple"

I don't know enough about Arkansas or Arizona to comment, in all honesty.

The least likely candidates to go blue would be Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina

As a Northerner...Virginia will never be accepted as a real Northern state. That's all.
Anecdotally, also, my dad is from New York City, and one of his siblings now lives in Northern Virginia, and one of them now lives in West Virginia. Granted, he married a West Virginian and lives in Charleston, but absolutely nowhere is safe from Yankees moving in. Multiple people from my high school went to the University of Alabama and one went to the University of Oklahoma, and idk if they'll stay after graduation, but lots of people don't move home after college...so...

Also, I don't think Latinos being devout Catholics precludes them from being Democrats--the states with the highest percentages of Catholics are also some of the most Democrat-voting.

 

[Rand /pol/]

Periodic reminder that this is a blue state.

well yeah only one of those counties is like....relevant

 

[Y2K Baby]

well yeah only one of those counties is like....relevant

The system is flawed.

 

[Crunchy Leaf]

Here's a map of the vote margins from the 2018 Illinois gubernatorial elections, which the Democrat won 55 to 39.

It's not just Chicago, it's just...mostly Chicago!

Every rural area in every state is always going to feel ignored because fewer people means fewer services and spending, regardless of partisan breakdown.

 

[Red Hood]

I have a feeling Georgia might become one soon, given that the state is slowly becoming more urbanized and is seeing a lot more influence from Hollywood. The Stacy Abrams shit immediately springs to mind; Hollywood was this close from using the fact that she didn't get elected as a political hammer to bludgeon the state for wrongthink and pull out of filming 90% of their movies there. I have a feeling this will be a recurring issue.

The main reason they film there is because it's cheap and Georgia offers good incentives to film there. I think Hollywood overestimates their influence there, though.

My money's on North Carolina. Plenty of cities, strong presence of Academia. Asheville is slowly becoming Portland East.

Of course SC is just waiting for one of its neighbors to have a moment of weakness in which South Carolina will invade and expand their territory.

 

[Bzk]

Minorities =/= democrats.

this is the case 99% of the time, and the democratic party is well aware of it. they have an interest in BROWNING the country for a reason, lmao

also:

 

[Y2K Baby]

this is the case 99% of the time, and the democratic party is well aware of it. they have an interest in BROWNING the country for a reason, lmao

also:
View attachment 719686

Your image macro proved me wrong, sorry.

 

[Crunchy Leaf]

this is the case 99% of the time, and the democratic party is well aware of it. they have an interest in BROWNING the country for a reason, lmao

also:
View attachment 719686

I don't buy it. I'm willing to accept this is true for Latinos, in some parts of the country some of the time, but black people are not gonna vote en masse for Republicans unless the Republican party drastically changes. I don't see how Republicans could pander to black people without alienating the rest of their base.

 

[Bzk]

I don't buy it. I'm willing to accept this is true for Latinos, in some parts of the country some of the time, but black people are not gonna vote en masse for Republicans unless the Republican party drastically changes. I don't see how Republicans could pander to black people without alienating the rest of their base.

yeah i meant to convey that, 99% of the time, minorities are democrats. i wasnt trying to show that i was in agreement with @Tard Baby , i was trying to say that i was agreeing with the post he replied to

and yeah the republicans couldnt do so without alienating their normal, white base, which is exactly whats happening; with them getting softer on immigration, embracing lgbt/diversity shit, pandering to BASED nogs/browns/etc., constantly praising israel/jews, shilling the shoah constantly, etc., there are reasons that trump's almost certainly not getting re-elected and the left/right divide is growing in the US (europe as well but thats a different story for a different day)

and this is all implying that divisive politics in the US dont exist as a whole to give the plebs the illusion of healthy competition that the government, consisting of two parties that are in most ways identical, needs to maintain and justify its (((((diarchical despotism)))))

 

[mr.moon1488]

I tried Brain Force Plus once actually

didn't work

What is it?

 

[Crunchy Leaf]

yeah i meant to convey that, 99% of the time, minorities are democrats. i wasnt trying to show that i was in agreement with @Tard Baby , i was trying to say that i was agreeing with the post he replied to

and yeah the republicans couldnt do so without alienating their normal, white base, which is exactly whats happening; with them getting softer on immigration, embracing lgbt/diversity shit, pandering to BASED nogs/browns/etc., constantly praising israel/jews, shilling the shoah constantly, etc., there are reasons that trump's almost certainly not getting re-elected and the left/right divide is growing in the US (europe as well but thats a different story for a different day)

and this is all implying that divisive politics in the US dont exist as a whole to give the plebs the illusion of healthy competition that the government, consisting of two parties that are in most ways identical, needs to maintain and justify its (((((diarchical despotism)))))

and their new white voters are the ones who used to vote for democrats (and may still even be registered democrats!), who are...gonna want the exact same shit the democrats used to give them. missouri might be a solid red state overall, but it sure did vote heavily to get rid of right-to-work cause they still like unions. it absolutely worked out well in 2016 for republicans to court the angry rust belter, but it's not a good long term strategy for fiscal conservatism.

the reason republicans are pro-israel is 'cause evangelicals think israel has to exist for the messiah to return or some dumb shit like that tho

 

[Syaoran Li]

As a Northerner...Virginia will never be accepted as a real Northern state. That's all.
Anecdotally, also, my dad is from New York City, and one of his siblings now lives in Northern Virginia, and one of them now lives in West Virginia. Granted, he married a West Virginian and lives in Charleston, but absolutely nowhere is safe from Yankees moving in. Multiple people from my high school went to the University of Alabama and one went to the University of Oklahoma, and idk if they'll stay after graduation, but lots of people don't move home after college...so...

Also, I don't think Latinos being devout Catholics precludes them from being Democrats--the states with the highest percentages of Catholics are also some of the most Democrat-voting.

I agree that the Northerners will never truly accept my state as a "Northern" state or even a "Mid-Atlantic" state no matter how hard the liberal yuppies and leftist hipsters in Richmond and the DC suburbs try.

While it is true that most Latino Catholics overwhelmingly vote Democrat, it's mostly because of the immigration issue (especially in the case of first-generation and second-generation Latinos who are more likely to have family members who are immigrants)

Notably, Cuban-Americans overwhelmingly vote Republican due to a mix of Catholic devotion and anti-communist sentiment. Unlike Mexicans or Central Americans, Cubans don't worry too much about the immigration debate because under federal law, Cuban immigrants are legally considered refugees and have a much easier path to citizenship.

 

[Crunchy Leaf]

I agree that the Northerners will never truly accept my state as a "Northern" state or even a "Mid-Atlantic" state no matter how hard the liberal yuppies and leftist hipsters in Richmond and the DC suburbs try.

While it is true that most Latino Catholics overwhelmingly vote Democrat, it's mostly because of the immigration issue (especially in the case of first-generation and second-generation Latinos who are more likely to have family members who are immigrants)

Notably, Cuban-Americans overwhelmingly vote Republican due to a mix of Catholic devotion and anti-communist sentiment. Unlike Mexicans or Central Americans, Cubans don't worry too much about the immigration debate because under federal law, Cuban immigrants are legally considered refugees and have a much easier path to citizenship.

My point was that lots of white Catholics vote Democrat, and presumably being pro-immigration is not one of their big issues now that we're not getting half of Cork and Sicily over here every year.

I think another problem with the angry rust belters becoming Republican is that a lot of them will be Catholic, and that means the Republicans are gonna have to cool it with the extremely fringe Evangelical Protestant stuff.