Will this lockdown actually end? - Or, tinfoil time with my quarantine addled brain

[Pargon]

Something that I don't get is why Trump is getting so much heat for telling the states to figure it out and use the fed as backup. Thats LITERALLY one of the basic ideas of the United States of America.

No one wants their name to be on the decision which kills Americans, which has been and will continue to be inevitable. It's an election year, which I'm sure is also why we've got constant posturing on the 24-hour news cycle. Well, more so than wed possibly get otherwise. If the governor's can foist it onto the president (whom many of them hate) they can point at him while saying they did all they could do. I don't think nearly as many of them want a strong central government as their complaints recently have suggested. They'd only want that if they could be sure it'd mutate into authoritarianism before they were booted out of office.

 

[DukeOfNimonia]

Here in Florida, our lockdown order is until April 30. We will have peaked by then, and the whole thing will likely be over by the Fourth of July.

The Government can forget about telling people to hold their breath for some indeterminate period of time. Eventually, the people deciding "fuck this; I'll take my chances" will hit critical mass, and that will end the lockdown crap. At that point, the Government had bloody well better have a vaccine, or we're all fucked. I predict that this critical mass will hit by Labor Day or thereabouts, assuming that the lockdown lasts that long. I honestly don't think it will, if we do the social distancing thing now.

By New Year's Day 2021, we will have either a vaccine or herd immunity. Either way, it will all be over.

 

[YourUnclesDad]

quit being a faggot and eat some vegetables

 

[haurchefant]

Americans are getting bored of the lockdown and it's not going to be much longer before people start saying "fuck it" to the restrictions and start gathering in parks again. No amount of Karens and whine moms on Facebook bitching about it will stop that especially once we start getting into summer and people want to start swimming. The gatherings will happen, at least in the US, and what exactly will the police do about it? There's a lot more of us than there are of them.

The only way to stop that is to have a Happening to the tune of 99 GORILLION DEAD with body bags in the streets, pushing corpses into houses with boathooks, and then burning those houses to the ground. (That's what Italy did during the Black Plague btw.) As it is we haven't even cracked 250,000 deaths in the United States, much to my personal disappointment.

As happenings go this one has been really boring. It's consisted of millions of people losing their jobs, middle class white people whining on twitter, lots of Animal Crossing, and hospitals laying off medical staff because people aren't coming in for elective surgery.

It doesn't matter what the government wants or if they want to continue the lockdown. Boredom and impatience will take over instead.

 

[Meat Poultry Veg]

Whether the lockdown ends depend on if Trump is still in the White House. I await your autistic/dumb ratings.

 

[kūhaku]

I've discussed this with one of my doctors a few days ago during some small talk, and he thinks that the quarantine will have to last until at least summer of 2021 and I'm inclined to agree. Until a vaccine is created, you can't trust the public to continue social distancing for that long, considering we can barely trust them to quarantine as is. So until then, going to have to shut down a large part of the world or risk the wrath of a much more severe outbreak.

 

[It's HK-47]

I've discussed this with one of my doctors a few days ago during some small talk, and he thinks that the quarantine will have to last until at least summer of 2021 and I'm inclined to agree. Until a vaccine is created, you can't trust the public to continue social distancing for that long, considering we can barely trust them to quarantine as is. So until then, going to have to shut down a large part of the world or risk the wrath of a much more severe outbreak.

There is a 0% chance of that happening because the world wouldn't survive that long and people will literally start kicking off murder-riots if politicians and law enforcement try to force them to stay indoors while society collapses from the lack of everyone working to keep it alive. It would be the equivalent of undergoing a quadruple amputation just because one of your toes got infected.

There is no logic whatsoever in destroying every single country in the world to try and combat something that's killed 127,601 people (0.0016~% of the global population). If all of us stayed locked up inside for an entire year we'd have problems that made the One Corpse Policy look infinitely more desirable by comparison.

 

[kūhaku]

There is a 0% chance of that happening because the world wouldn't survive that long and people will literally start kicking off murder-riots if politicians and law enforcement try to force them to stay indoors while society collapses from the lack of everyone working to keep it alive. It would be the equivalent of undergoing a quadruple amputation just because one of your toes got infected.

There is no logic whatsoever in destroying every single country in the world to try and combat something that's killed 127,601 people (0.0016~% of the global population). If all of us stayed locked up inside for an entire year we'd have problems that made the One Corpse Policy look infinitely more desirable by comparison.

Fair enough, considering how in shambles the world would be I don’t think it would end up being that long, but at the least I’m convinced it won’t end soon. I’m also interested how policy makers will react differently than the public since governments are run by old people and covid has a tendency to pick on the old. Would they choose self preservation over national safety?

 

[TitoBurrito]

It will end and then resume at a lighter level once people start dying again.

 

[neverendingmidi]

Don’t worry, we’ll only be shutdown until 2022.


Maybe.

But don’t worry, all small businesses can take the hit of not working for two years because only billionaires run any business.

 

[Comicsgeist]

It's about the math. The number of cases requiring hospital care Vs. the number of ICU and hospital beds available. This will vary from nation to nation.
The US has 34 ICU beds per 100,000 of the population, the UK has 6.
What the politicians fear is bodies piling up in the streets, so isolation will continue to avoid that spectacle until resources match demand.
Things will reopen in a few weeks because it's impossible to lock up an entire nation for months but you're likely to see spikes and probably rolling lock-downs for a few more months, probably on a regional basis determined by trends indicating a probable outbreak in particular hotspots for which protocols will be put in place.
Expect mass gatherings and big events to be cancelled till the end of summer.
Expect a very slow reopening of select businesses. A bookshop is low risk, a bar however is not.
Everything will be done to 'manage' the burn so there will be a lot of ad-hoc plans and rules put in place until a vaccine starts getting rolled out.

One think I know that Jaws has taught me.

The beaches will be open for the 4th of July!

 

[neverendingmidi]

It's about the math. The number of cases requiring hospital care Vs. the number of ICU and hospital beds available. This will vary from nation to nation.
The US has 34 ICU beds per 100,000 of the population, the UK has 6.
What the politicians fear is bodies piling up in the streets, so isolation will continue to avoid that spectacle until resources match demand.
Things will reopen in a few weeks because it's impossible to lock up an entire nation for months but you're likely to see spikes and probably rolling lock-downs for a few more months, probably on a regional basis determined by trends indicating a probable outbreak in particular hotspots for which protocols will be put in place.
Expect mass gatherings and big events to be cancelled till the end of summer.
Expect a very slow reopening of select businesses. A bookshop is low risk, a bar however is not.
Everything will be done to 'manage' the burn so there will be a lot of ad-hoc plans and rules put in place until a vaccine starts getting rolled out.

One think I know that Jaws has taught me.

The beaches will be open for the 4th of July!

Opening and shutting things will guarantee that no business other than megacorps will exist. A restaurant chain of decent size (I'm not sure if it's outside my state, but has numerous different sites) has announced they can only afford to open once. The costs of restarting everything, restocking, rehiring, etc. can only be done once. If they have to do it over and over, they'll just permanently shutter everything. And waiting until the end of summer? Yeah if one in thirty restaurants is able to reopen I'll be amazed. Probably even fewer bars. Most restaurants already run with high debts, so even offering loans won't help much.