Oh, I forgot to ask:
- Any discussion about other state elections (NV, AZ)? I want to know BnB's take on Adam Laxalt gunning for Nevada senator + plus hypothetical challengers to Mark Kelly (primarily Blake Masters).
- Adding on: anything more on Governors? Georgia's basically Brian Kemp v. Vernon Jones / v. Stacey Abrams, some word on Kari Lake in AZ against Katie Hobbs would be interesting, as well as some on Murphy and Hochul. Can't forget about DeSantis v. Crist too!
For governors in general, despite saying PA, MI and WI are going to flip, they went over Georgia findings.
Kemp will lose reelection against anyone. Over 25% of the base hates him and won't vote. The problem is he is leading in the primary.
If Trump endorses Vernon Jones, the primary goes from 45% Kemp 15% Jones to Jones instantly leading. This means Vernon Jonew has a name recognition problem. They are confused why Trump hasn't endorsed anyone yet. Some rumblings may point to some dirt on Jones / Perdue wanting to run, but its up in the air. Trump is going to endorse Kemp's most viable challenger, and right now its Jones. It is only about when he does it.
DeSantis v. Crist is going to be a bloodbath. Crist is easily going down.
For NY, nothing in particular. However, its assumed that they are using Cuomo as a scapegoat to push negativity towards him and do anything she wants with mandates.
If you want to pay attention to a race for gov this year, look at Virginia. NJ is a shithole. When polled, when both ads were played, people would vote Republican by 7 points. Murphy's ads wanting NJ to be California 2.0 is deeply unpopular (only 30% support it). He also stated that " If you care about tax reform, we aren't your state." I still expect a double digit win.
Unfortunately, nothing on NV, despite Barnes being from there. It seems like Masters in AZ is getting the nomination though, since Brnovich is still begging for enough signitures to be on the ballot. Mark Kelly is a retard who became another party line Democrat instead of Sinema who poised herself as an psuedo-independent. Him going for gun grabbing and blanket spending in the most gun-owning state in the country was a galaxy brained manuever. Lake in AZ is easily getting the nom with Trump's endorsement. With a presumable bloodbath in 2022, I expect them to be pushed over the edge due to the national environment and trends.
If you want trends, in 2018, a D+14 year, NV gov Sisolak won by 5 points. With it trending Republican, the DSA taking over Nevada and destroying the Reid union ballot harvesting, the national environment, and Laxalt on the ballot again, its looking like the best time in a while for it to flip. Same with the Senate seat.
They assume Sununu from NH is running for Senate. If he does, he easily beats the incumbant Democrat there.