- Joined
- Aug 2, 2021
So what's your take on tomorrow? Are we going to see a plea deal or another continuance? I'd personally put either at 50/50.
That's a pretty good assessment. Unless there is something that the defense knows about that nobody else knows about (and is so obscure that they can't be asked for it in discovery), it's in the best interests of everyone to bide their time and build their best case.
Absolute best case, the gods of luck shining upon him, Chris gets a 6 month sentence. Since Chris has nowhere to go, he's staying in jail. For 6 months, he lives for free, keeps his tugboat, and his attorney works for him raking in more money for his paralegals who are doing most of the work. The prosecution gets more time to kick the can down the road and decide what to do.
Realistically Chris will probably get a year in jail. While the defense probably cannot stretch it out that long, it means there's no incentive to resolve sooner since regardless of the outcome Chris will still be in jail or in prison.
The case will end when Chris' attorney gets the best deal he thinks he can, and that deal is close to the amount of time that Chris has already been in jail. Alternatively, the prosecution is not playing ball and wants to hit harder and is willing to spend the resources of the state on Chris to achieve it.
Continuances will probably end after 6 months. Up to about 6 months, continuances work entirely in the defense's favor. They will not continue longer than a year because that means that the prosecution is not willing to budge and the defense will be running on fumes in terms of legal justification to drag it out. At that point the defense will take the best deal they can get, unless the prosecutor is being an idiot bastard and not making any real concessions, in which case it will go to trial (very VERY unlikely).
I still think the most likely result is one year in jail, no SOR, conditional release with monitoring and therapy. Second most likely is a couple of years in prison, with all other conditions being the same. Chris' attorney is going to fight hard to keep the sentence to one year or less, but failing that will fight to prevent SOR listing.
EDIT: To make it clear, continuances are good for both Chris and his attorney. The longer it continues, Chris keeps getting his tugboat, and his attorney keeps getting money from the state, all the while racking up time served. While the attorney's time is more valuable than what the state is paying him, it's much closer in value to what he pays his paralegals to do most of the work. Once Chris pleads guilty, the tugboat stops, and the attorney stops getting paid. The cutoff where it starts getting worse for Chris is 1 year, because after that Chris is a felon and he will have to reapply for his tugboat after he gets out if his post-conviction stay is longer than a year. There's a brief period between 1 year and 2 years where the time served keeps the total post-conviction stay shorter than a year, where he automatically gets his tugboat back, but he's still a felon.
Anything beyond that is really bad news for Chris and his attorney will not accept that easily.
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