Global Depression 2022 - Time to do the Breadline Boogaloo!

[Justa Grata Honoria]

This is excellent green policy! Don't produce any energy and instead buy it all from other countries so you can say you cut down on emissions! Germany's green!

You wanna feel crazy read this

Redirect Notice

They are proceeding with nuclear power plant shutdown in midst of an energy crisis .

Happy new year in this clown world . Honk honk motherfuckers

 

[Enceladus]

You wanna feel crazy read this

Redirect Notice

They are proceeding with nuclear power plant shutdown in midst of an energy crisis .

Happy new year in this clown world . Honk honk motherfuckers

German energy policy is concrete proof that they are just as fucked up as any other country. Their carbon footprint has spiked thanks to an irrational pants-shitting fear of nuclear power. And is several times that of neighboring France.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

Saw this earlier in the article's section, thought it pertinent to post here.

We have a powerful weapon to fight inflation: price controls. It’s time we consider it | Isabella Weber

To prevent inflation after World War II, America’s leading economists recommended strategic price controls. Is there a case for doing so today, too?

www.theguardian.com

archive

We have a powerful weapon to fight inflation: price controls. It’s time we use it | Isabella Weber

We used price controls after inflation sky-rocketed after the second world war. There’s a strong case for doing so again now

web.archive.org

I envision this thread morphing into what the Covid Mega Thread has become, that being a real time record of narratives, and public perception. We've seen over the past 2 years more than ever before the pushing of false or misguided narratives, maliciously I might add. We're now seeing it in regards to the economy; a few months ago we saw articles get meme'd for headlines like "Inflation is high, here's why that's a good thing" I expect(as am sure many of you do as well) that we'll be seeing even more of this fuckery in the future. The above article I believe is just a front runner, perhaps by a few weeks or even months, but I would not be shocked if in a month or two's time this is a normal talking point for the yammering heads people for some reason listen to.

 

[Return of the Freaker]

Germany is literally fucking the energy sector right now they forced norway to sell on spot causing prices overnight to go 500 % , they shutdown their reactors and coal plants all in the name of the green demon.

I don't agree with everything Thomas Sheridan says, but tbh I was looking for an excuse to share this (almost 1hr):

 

[Justa Grata Honoria]

Saw this earlier in the article's section, thought it pertinent to post here.

We have a powerful weapon to fight inflation: price controls. It’s time we consider it | Isabella Weber

To prevent inflation after World War II, America’s leading economists recommended strategic price controls. Is there a case for doing so today, too?

www.theguardian.com

archive

We have a powerful weapon to fight inflation: price controls. It’s time we use it | Isabella Weber

We used price controls after inflation sky-rocketed after the second world war. There’s a strong case for doing so again now

web.archive.org

I envision this thread morphing into what the Covid Mega Thread has become, that being a real time record of narratives, and public perception. We've seen over the past 2 years more than ever before the pushing of false or misguided narratives, maliciously I might add. We're now seeing it in regards to the economy; a few months ago we saw articles get meme'd for headlines like "Inflation is high, here's why that's a good thing" I expect(as am sure many of you do as well) that we'll be seeing even more of this fuckery in the future. The above article I believe is just a front runner, perhaps by a few weeks or even months, but I would not be shocked if in a month or two's time this is a normal talking point for the yammering heads people for some reason listen to.

I genuinely want to see them try especially the British whom had 9 million foreign born immigrants and lost significant part during the COVID shutdowns leading to hilarious shit like this mind you this is 2018 figure on Wikipedia i don't have the autism fuel in me to search 2020 numbers but early data shown they lost like 1 million of them .

Just 20 UK visas issued to foreign lorry drivers, government admits

Oliver Dowden says applications ‘relatively limited’ for emergency visa scheme aimed to stem supply chain crisis

www.theguardian.com

They filled out of 5000 needed just 20 . Add to that the energy bill shock that made some of the Norwegian students to pack up and leave which there goes the cheap part time labour
And we see how it goes with this after COVID mandates . I am telling you now nobody in eastern Europe will show up to work for shit pay that doesn't even cover the bills and on top of that they ask you to wax Maxx .

Changes Made to Visa for Social Care Workers, Making it Easier to Work in the UK

In the hope of helping staffing problems, several social care jobs were added to the shortage occupation list, making it easier to get a visa to work in the UK.

www.medscape.com

I am going to laugh my balls off when everything left in Britain are boomers and people on the dole .

 

[AncientPhosphur]

Energy shortage and collapsing economies might just be what saves the West and cause all the immigrants to go back

 

[MadStan]

- Inflation heats up further
- Fed raises rates to fight inflation, which kills zombie corps
- Contagion hits, markets crash, people lose their jobs
- Short-term deflation hits as the economy grinds to a near total halt
- Fed lowers rates, as it is cornered and out of options
- Inflation skyrockets as the economy whipsaws back into a melt-up
- Employment fails to return to earlier levels because the damage is done
- Fed continues its inflationary debt spiral until the dollar implodes

After all that, chaos reigns, voters demand action. Congress authorizes a bill re-valuating the US dollar, in cooperation with other Western nations. A global depression takes hold. Few in western countries starve, but the middle class is decimated permanently. By 2030 America is a shell of its former self, while the upper classes avoid the worst of the carnage.

Its important to remember a few things.

The Feds back in the day of Obama - and Trump - at several moments attempted to wind back their portfolio and were met with vicious drops in the market by investors and chickened out. Covid did allow them to side step their policy and pump again in the name of "the great pandemic".

All I am saying is that if we view regular economics what you say holds very true, but the US Government and Fed will interfere to avoid the scenario you pout forward at any cost - which usually means kicking the can down the road. Obama and Trump both did it too BTW.

I can see the first 3 steps of your doomsday prediction unfolding, but the job losses probably won't be as severe as one might think.

I suspect in order to fight inflation, the Government will likely attempt to void taxes on the lower and lower middle class as a form of counter to inflation - it doesn't really take away the inflation, just the impact.

If they don't hand out more money or lower the taxes to the lower income earners, then I can definitely see a real problem on the horizon. The US Economy is all about medication and band aids. Surgery has been deemed too dangerous with a high risk of mortality.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

I suspect in order to fight inflation, the Government will likely attempt to void taxes on the lower and lower middle class as a form of counter to inflation - it doesn't really take away the inflation, just the impact.

If they void taxes on the lower and middle class what will they pay back their self generated debts with? If they try this we're beyond fucked and everyone is already a billionaire. If anything we've seen them trying to expand taxation on the lower and middle classes in recent months, tons of new tax laws and lowering of reportable minimums in online transactions or private sales. Look at how they sperg about crypto, "Some americans aren't paying their fair share, they're dodging the IRS with this new fangled Crypto!".

I get your caution, like you've said they're excellent at kicking the can down the road; however the landscape of the world has changed drastically in that time period, even if most people have yet to realize it, the fed has really backed themselves into a corner. We'll see though perhaps they can kick the can down the road for another decade.

 

[MadStan]

If they void taxes on the lower and middle class what will they pay back their self generated debts with? If they try this we're beyond fucked and everyone is already a billionaire. If anything we've seen them trying to expand taxation on the lower and middle classes in recent months, tons of new tax laws and lowering of reportable minimums in online transactions or private sales. Look at how they sperg about crypto, "Some americans aren't paying their fair share, they're dodging the IRS with this new fangled Crypto!".

I get your caution, like you've said they're excellent at kicking the can down the road; however the landscape of the world has changed drastically in that time period, even if most people have yet to realize it, the fed has really backed themselves into a corner. We'll see though perhaps they can kick the can down the road for another decade.

I suspect the actual revenues generated from lower middle and lower income from the IRS is fairly minimal versus the freebies they give. In the scheme of things.

Most of us really pay tax through sales tax is most states to bolster local budgets. For the IRS, a minimal increase in a corporate rate would very much make up the balance for waiving tax burden on the lower class and lower middle class.

Of course, beware a gift from a government. If they did eliminate tax on the lower scale, we would celebrate until we realize that they would also probably strip a lot of fringe benefits and freebies in exchange for no tax.

I'm really not too sure what they will do - obviously. All I know is from a lower middle class income point of view (where I'm at), that we get smashed pretty heavy. We aren't poor enough to get "free" - like healthcare and stamps, but we aren't rich enough that we can pay taxes and laugh it off. Burden on small business is quite heavy. My insurance premium is the same as the guy next door who has 5x the revenue. My vehicle insurance blah blah is all the same - but it makes up a much smaller fraction of his costs than mine. His city rates and water tax etc. etc. are all the same, so by proportion, he has a lot more less going out than I do.

It's tough out here. But not impossible...just very hard to break through to the next level and while I am not looking for a handout, I'd really like to see some easing as a few percentage points off our budget essentially is the difference between putting money away for retirement - and not.

 

[Hippopatumus]

If they void taxes on the lower and middle class what will they pay back their self generated debts with?

Menotaur is on my ignore list so I didn't see the original post but this caught my attention.

God damn how dumb do you have to be that thinking VOIDING TAXES is going to SOLVE INFLATION.

Hmm yes American citizens please have more money that is sure to reduce money supply and velocity.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

Energy shortage and collapsing economies might just be what saves the West and cause all the immigrants to go back

Their economies are fucked too. When shit hits the fan, would you rather be in some Third World shithole with gang violence everywhere (assuming government thugs don't get you first), or Western Europe where the cops and courts barely punish you and even the most crime-filled cities are fairly safe by US standards? Hell, even in the US the murder-filled hellholes like St. Louis and Baltimore aren't as bad as some cities in Mexico, Central America, or Venezuela, that's why people escape to those places (and usually bring some MS-13 or cartel wannabes with them).

 

[Gorilla Tessellator]

I just watched "The Big Short", and I was wondering if you know a good primer about what happened after 2008? I mean I've read about it here and there, but I would like to get some nice summary of shenanigans. I would like to be able to present it to a friend in a compelling way.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

I just watched "The Big Short", and I was wondering if you know a good primer about what happened after 2008? I mean I've read about it here and there, but I would like to get some nice summary of shenanigans. I would like to be able to present it to a friend in a compelling way.

Banks give money to people to buy homes, banks sell this mortgage debt to other companies based upon a rating system of AAA to dogshit depending on how likely the debtor is to default, debt companies decide that buying dogshit tier loans is a retarded gamble so they get a cardboard box(Collateral Debt Obligation) and throw some AAA loans, midgrade loans and a few dogshit loans in just to unload them off the balance books. Averaged out the CDO still is AAA so other debt companies, pensions, banks buy this debt because its regarded as a stable income source for a number of years. Eventually politicians start rewriting laws during the Clinton years that allow banks to just give mortgages to anyone, no questions asked, the catch being that the interest rate will be low initially then spike to a high amount in quite a few years, the idea being that you just refinance the loan because the value of the house has risen along with the red hot market. On top of this, the rating agencies just start rubber stamp everything as high grade debt because, fuckit, who wants to do work? So the CDO which maybe had 5% risky loans is now 50-70% dogshit. So the housing market starts cooling as prices are absolutely insane relative to what average citizens earn, people cannot refinance, so the bubble mortgage causes them to default as the interest rate has pushed the monthly mortgage payment beyond their capabilities and the various CDO start crashing because they were mostly full of dogshit.

Wall street instantly gets their hackles up because they realize the system is flawed in some way they do not yet fully understand and taking on any obligations is tantamount to suicide so liquidity on the financial markets starts drying up. This is a problem because random businesses and municipality will take on debt in one part of the year when tax receipts are lean and pay it off when they get a rush when property tax arrives as an example. Shit starts going sideways because nobody can get money so Bush has to go to congress and force liquidity via the bailouts otherwise the entire economy will implode. Stuff like pensions which would expect modest growth from AAA rated assets start going under because the CDO was dogshit leaving Grandpa and Grandma out in the cold after a lifetime of expecting the pension income, Chicago is still dealing with the pension fallout nearly 15 years later. To resolve this liquidity issue the Fed cut rates to 0.25% for the entire length of the Obama administration which floods the rich with money, this spikes the assets that wealthy and banks dabble in, real estate, stocks, bonds and sometimes commodities, though control over commodities is always short lived as it just moves too fucking fast for any one group to control, this rate cut is called Quantitative Easing. The reason most Millennial and Zoomers have no expectation of ever having the opportunity to own a home is because QE spikes the real estate market.

Interestingly the Fed suddenly decided to change course the moment Trump got into office, I say interesting because there was a near miss on a recession in 2014-2015 that partly was the reason Trump got in. Faced with a Republican in office with the expectation of regulation and tax cuts the economy suddenly sprang to life and ended the Obama malaise. The long lasting legacy of the Obama years is the complete domination over most sectors by goliath companies. Companies like Google went from mid-tier tech companies to absolute juggernauts that cannot be displaced. Disney spent years buying up every asset they could get their hands on like Star Wars and Marvel, huge monopoly in every industry were created that ossified most sectors to this day because the Fed was just handing out what was effectively free money, the Fed target is about 2% inflation per year, the prime rate being 0.25% means it was profitable for these large institutions to take on this debt, particularly to buy assets and kill competitors via buy-outs and mergers. The long years of QE are also coming home to roost in the form of huge inflation and I do not expect 2021 to be a one-off event, I expect the entire decade to resemble the 1970 as the Fed crashes the markets by raising the rates, they need to get to somewhere between 4-6% and maybe even as high as 10% if Volker's gambits are required again, for reference the Fed managed to get to 2.5% and it was absolutely buckling the system in 2018, you can see the insane drop off in October as a result. It was intended for the Fed to hike rates again twice more in 2019 but that was abandoned and we're back to nearly 0 again and the system is even more reliant on low rates like a heroin junkie needs it needle.

 

[Gorilla Tessellator]

Thank you for this nice write-up @attractive_pneumonia Can you recommend some blog? I started looking up reverse repo crisis in September 2019 and while I found some sources I don't know if they are legit. I know I can't really trust ZeroHedge. I was thinking that someone linked a blog on this thread, but I skimmed all the pages, and I didn't catch this link.

Edit: I was looking up people involved in "The Big Short", I knew about Michael Burry for some time, but I got interested in this Mike Baum character, in real life Steven Eisman. I found his recent interviews, and despite the fact that the movie portrayed his as this guy who just lost the faith in the system, currently it's my gut feeling that he is full of shit. He thinks that banks got deleveraged and regulated, and that they have a very sound future. Is he right? Or he is just spewing dogshit?

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

Thank you for this nice write-up @attractive_pneumonia Can you recommend some blog? I started looking up reverse repo crisis in September 2019 and while I found some sources I don't know if they are legit. I know I can't really trust ZeroHedge. I was thinking that someone linked a blog on this thread, but I skimmed all the pages, and I didn't catch this link.

Edit: I was looking up people involved in "The Big Short", I knew about Michael Burry for some time, but I got interested in this Mike Baum character, in real life Steven Eisman. I found his recent interviews, and despite the fact that the movie portrayed his as this guy who just lost the faith in the system, currently it's my gut feeling that he is full of shit. He thinks that banks got deleveraged and regulated, and that they have a very sound future. Is he right? Or he is just spewing dogshit?

I never bothered to go full in depth on the 2008 crash because ultimately the inner workings is largely irrelevant to the common pleb like the people of this forum. It involved a lot of rule changes and musical chair arrangement, only the broad strokes are what matters. Also what I wrote is what I remember off the top of my head, over the course of a decade+. Plus a lot of it is my personal opinion and bias on what I focused on. I view the creation of monopoly as a serious threat and the industry collusion witnessed when the tech sector suddenly decided, within minutes of each other, to cut off service to Parler and destroy every facet of the business sort of proves me right. Amazon and others decided to crush a Twitter competitor outright, the antics Gab and this site are forced to go through also is proof of their collusion.

 

[Beavis]

Saw this earlier in the article's section, thought it pertinent to post here.

We have a powerful weapon to fight inflation: price controls. It’s time we consider it | Isabella Weber

To prevent inflation after World War II, America’s leading economists recommended strategic price controls. Is there a case for doing so today, too?

www.theguardian.com

archive

We have a powerful weapon to fight inflation: price controls. It’s time we use it | Isabella Weber

We used price controls after inflation sky-rocketed after the second world war. There’s a strong case for doing so again now

web.archive.org

I envision this thread morphing into what the Covid Mega Thread has become, that being a real time record of narratives, and public perception. We've seen over the past 2 years more than ever before the pushing of false or misguided narratives, maliciously I might add. We're now seeing it in regards to the economy; a few months ago we saw articles get meme'd for headlines like "Inflation is high, here's why that's a good thing" I expect(as am sure many of you do as well) that we'll be seeing even more of this fuckery in the future. The above article I believe is just a front runner, perhaps by a few weeks or even months, but I would not be shocked if in a month or two's time this is a normal talking point for the yammering heads people for some reason listen to.

Price controls are a wonderful way to ensure shortages.

 

[contradiction of terns]

‘Degrowth’ Isn't Just About the Economy. It’s About Culture.

archived 31 Dec 2021 05:42:49 UTC

archive.md

To save the planet, the degrowth movement calls not for us to sacrifice prosperity, but to redefine it.​

[Snip]

A key step is for our culture’s gatekeepers — curators, editors, artists, influencers — to diversify the conversation about climate solutions beyond clean technology and decarbonization. Journalists, editors, and commentators, in particular, carry tremendous power to set the cultural agenda, especially in the world’s more democratic countries. It is time they use it.

It’s worth remembering, for example, that our current global system of infinite growth didn’t emerge by chance. It was partly an outgrowth of cultural forces that took hold in the post-World War II era: a revolution in advertising, media coverage that stressed the benefits of capitalism and globalization, and a drumbeat of Hollywood films depicting material wealth as the symbol of success.
Similar forces could be marshalled to drive a cultural shift toward degrowth.

Take the arts and entertainment. The acclaimed Indian novelist Amitav Ghosh argued in his 2016 book “The Great Derangement” that climate change was conspicuously absent from works of fiction. Yet today, climate and the environment remain mostly in the domain of nonfiction. With a few notable exceptions — such as Maja Lunde’s “The History of Bees” — bestselling novels and blockbuster movies of recent years have hardly engaged the question of our relationship with nature.

Education is another space that shapes culture. Many of the world’s education systems are currently focussed on churning out productive workers who can keep the infinite-growth economy spinning. Even at so-called elite educational institutions, critical thinking too often equates with problem solving for infinite growth. Our education systems — currently preoccupied with STEM subjects, and with imparting technology skills demanded by corporate employers — must place greater emphasis on creativity, imagination, and political engagement. We need to be able to imagine alternative futures before we can bring them into being, and degrowth is no exception.

The propaganda machine shifts and somewhere a portal opens to hell.

 

[Only A Retard Sometimes]

Just how rare are companies that dont have any debt? Only one i know of is Ruger, that came out when the bought out Marlin with cash on hand.

 

[Knight of the Rope]

Just how rare are companies that dont have any debt? Only one i know of is Ruger, that came out when the bought out Marlin with cash on hand.

Pretty rare. As a rule of thumb, the risk/reward structure associated with debt gets completely flipped depending on whether you're talking about personal finance vs talking about corporations (and governments, for that matter).

For a person, being in debt is usually bad since it means that you owe outstanding funds on depreciating assets. Those debts accrue interest, and you need to pay off the debt and the interest with your own money. And failure to pay the debt means that they take away your shit that you, personally own: like your car, house, Nintendo Switch, soylent stash, etc.

Whereas for a business, debt is usually good. You can offset your corporate tax by the debt interest meaning that you end up paying less tax anyway, and it's also a more robust way to fund the business operations since the legal obligation to repay the debt means that your company is immediately more attractive to investors and other stakeholders for returns, so capital is plentiful. Since debt gets your business quick and easy funds for R&D, being in debt is (usually) correlated with your business actually growing wealth and developing: you go into debt to secure funds to grow the business. So a business that isn't in debt is (usually) a business that's stagnating. And if you've set your business up properly (and aren't a mainland Chinese bugman), failure to pay the debt means that your personal assets and credit are fine, it's just the business that gets fucked and liquidated.

There are exceptions, but in general that's usually how it works.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

‘Degrowth’ Isn't Just About the Economy. It’s About Culture.

archived 31 Dec 2021 05:42:49 UTC

archive.md

The propaganda machine shifts and somewhere a portal opens to hell.

The problem is they never want degrowth on themselves, us peasants are the ones who will eat bugs and live in a pod to make the degrowth happen. There's a lot of ways of sustainably halting growth that wouldn't really impact your life other than shit like not buying a new iPhone every year or taking 5 vacations. There are studies showing that material wealth indeed isn't happiness, and that once a country hits about 10,000 USD in GDP per capita, their happiness levels are unlikely to rise specifically from wealth alone. People in the 1950s were much poorer than today, but enjoyed the same happiness as now.

An actually good degrowth program could solve a lot of problems we don't have the money to solve today because we prioritize economic growth. I think it would essentially be an alternative to the Green New Deal since it would inevitably transition the economy to 100% green energy (could be nuclear power, could be something else, not the point of this discussion) because it needs such a huge capital influx but isn't going to make back much money for the banks. I would expect the rising costs of a lot of goods (since they'd be locally manufactured) would be offset by higher wages and subsidies on energy so material prosperity would not decrease by much, it would merely remain frozen. Imports and exports would slow and things would be more regional since we wouldn't have as much cross-country shipping. We'd probably see a lot of money invested in research and science, especially space if we're assuming degrowth for the sake of energy/resource independence and environmentalism.

The powers that be don't want this, since then they couldn't control countries by having them acquire massive levels of debt, they couldn't have their climate apocalypse (which they want so they can finish blending every race and culture into one ball of globohomo and kill billions of people to control the population), and they couldn't watch their lines go up while humiliating us peasants as we slave for them for extra bug rations. It defeats the purpose of banks as they are now to loan money like this, because banks rarely run on common morality like "give away money for the sake of the country and its people" or even actual green stuff instead of the faggy pseudo-environmentalism these banks do now.