Russian Invasion of Ukraine (2022): Thread 1 - Ukrainian Liars vs Russian Liars with Air and Artillery Superiority

[Duke Nukem]

They're apparently walking back on this report and are essentially saying "Putin hasn't actually gave the go ahead, but maybe it will still happen". I'm thinking they were called out on their bluff.
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LOL @ anyone who takes Twitter feeds as legitimate news. I still have doubts that it's going to happen. Besides, Ukraine is at least as much of a corrupt oligarchy as Russia so, eh.

Ah yes, because as everyone knows modern wars are done through announcements made week prior to invasion, this is certainly not both sides trying to hide massive inflation and economic instability through saber rattling

This is exactly what I think it is. Besides, Vlad already got Crimea back, what use is it to risk it with a full scale invasion? The idea isn't popular at home or abroad.

 

[Techpriest]

LOL @ anyone who takes Twitter feeds as legitimate news. I still have doubts that it's going to happen. Besides, Ukraine is at least as much of a corrupt oligarchy as Russia so, eh.


This is exactly what I think it is. Besides, Vlad already got Crimea back, what use is it to risk it with a full scale invasion? The idea isn't popular at home or abroad.

Vlad is old school Russian imperial power. All parts of the USSR should be controlled by the Federation.

In any case, invasion likely starts between the 13th and 19th. The thaw is starting already. They have to move now or not move for another couple months, by which they’re facing a much better equipped and probably mobilized Ukrainian army. As is, they’re going to be fighting partisans. It’s going to get bloody.

 

[DumbDude42]

This is exactly what I think it is. Besides, Vlad already got Crimea back, what use is it to risk it with a full scale invasion? The idea isn't popular at home or abroad.

i wonder how an invasion would play out in the medium and long term. those eastern border regions they took years ago (donezk and luhansk and also crimea) are full of russians so russian rule isn't a big deal there, but in western ukraine that is not the case, the people there resent russia.
i don't doubt that the russians could crush the ukrainian army, but what then? long term occupation of a large country full of people who fucking hate your ass isn't fun, very expensive and messy business.

 

[CWCissey]

i wonder how an invasion would play out in the medium and long term. those eastern border regions they took years ago (donezk and luhansk and also crimea) are full of russians so russian rule isn't a big deal there, but in western ukraine that is not the case, the people there resent russia.
i don't doubt that the russians could crush the ukrainian army, but what then? long term occupation of a large country full of people who fucking hate your ass isn't fun, very expensive and messy business.

I imagine Vladdy's plan is to stop at the Dnieper.

 

[Techpriest]

i wonder how an invasion would play out in the medium and long term. those eastern border regions they took years ago (donezk and luhansk and also crimea) are full of russians so russian rule isn't a big deal there, but in western ukraine that is not the case, the people there resent russia.
i don't doubt that the russians could crush the ukrainian army, but what then? long term occupation of a large country full of people who fucking hate your ass isn't fun, very expensive and messy business.

Even eastern Ukraine will be crawling with partisans. The Russians are going to bleed. It’s going to be messy for very little gain, all because of Cold War paranoia about the west.

I’m also getting a bingo put together about what could happen.

 

[Super Book]

Vlad is old school Russian imperial power. All parts of the USSR should be controlled by the Federation.

In any case, invasion likely starts between the 13th and 19th. The thaw is starting already. They have to move now or not move for another couple months, by which they’re facing a much better equipped and probably mobilized Ukrainian army. As is, they’re going to be fighting partisans. It’s going to get bloody.

Isn't it getting extremely muddy around the border right now? While I have no doubt they have the equipment to combat that road block, it will still slow them down more than they would probably like. Is there a better time to attack or is it now or never at this point?

 

[CWCissey]

Isn't it getting extremely muddy around the border right now? While I have no doubt they have the equipment to combat that road block, it will still slow them down more than they would probably like. Is there a better time to attack or is it now or never at this point?

Now or never really, the Russkies want the ground to freeze. That likely won't happen for a while as spring is around the corner. Plus a good majority of the Ukrainian populace is arming themselves and getting ready to fight. It was always going to be a bloodbath, but putting off an invasion at this point will make it a meat grinder.

 

[Techpriest]

Isn't it getting extremely muddy around the border right now? While I have no doubt they have the equipment to combat that road block, it will still slow them down more than they would probably like. Is there a better time to attack or is it now or never at this point?

There is but it’s later in the year. Right now, it’s just going to get worse until it gets better. They’re there now, they’re in position, they’re setting up field hospitals and positioned naval assets. Kyiv is going to be a meat grinder, they’re also going to need to try and secure other major cities. Not only that, they’re going to need to do it as fast as possible to try and set up a puppet government - which is going to result in again, partisans shooting at Russians in the long run. It’s attack now, or wait four months.

 

[Super Book]

The time limit due to weather is really interesting and does add some truth to the reports made by supposed "US intelligence", but I'm still holding off on a full scale invasion due to the cons outweighing the pros for Russia at this point. The conference between Putin and Biden on Saturday morning might give more insight into what exactly does Russia get from Ukraine, but it will probably just boil down to a bunch of finger pointing and "they're just warmongering!" comments from both of them.

 

[Techpriest]

The time limit due to weather is really interesting and does add some truth to the reports made by supposed "US intelligence", but I'm still holding off on a full scale invasion due to the cons outweighing the pros for Russia at this point. The conference between Putin and Biden on Saturday morning might give more insight into what exactly does Russia get from Ukraine, but it will probably just boil down to a bunch of finger pointing and "they're just warmongering!" comments from both of them.

The US has basically been giving the Russians every single off ramp possible. Russia has been refusing them and has stuck to absolutely insane demands that amount to “dismantle NATO.”

The cons of the invasion to Putin may be worth the “security” of it. Remember, he wants a strong russia akin to the imperial one. That’s why he invaded the Crimea, that’s why he’s supporting rebels in multiple countries, that’s why he’s dicking around in Syria. Reality is that being aggressive towards Ukraine hurt the Russian security interests extremely hard. Everything they’ve done has done nothing but increase the unease their neighbors feel towards them.

 

[Super Book]

An interesting theory I've seen floating around is that the troop build up is more or less "bargaining chips" for Russian officials to use. They'll pull out if they get their way and stay put if nothing changes. That being said, all that military build up can't stay there for long and due to Russias nearly batshit demands are not going anywhere soon, so there is doubt that said theory really has any proof actually behind it.

 

[RA-5C Vigilante]

As someone who unfortunately works with high levels of government, I can say I genuinely don't believe Putin would be willing to risk it all for a country he can't control without causing a gigantic nightmare.
I fully believe hes willing to fight for places like Kazakhstan, where he has very little threat of losing it all or some other shitbox who gives a shit country that won't fight Russia well anyway, IE Georgia.

I really think this is a test to see with what Putin can get away with. I fully expect to see a slow but steady wind down now that more people are realizing and responding. We should have had plenty of troops on the ground weeks or months ago to give a definitive middle finger, but the current administration is run by crack-pipe dealing retards so I don't expect anything less but embarrassing incompetence.

 

[Krokodil Overdose]

The time limit due to weather is really interesting and does add some truth to the reports made by supposed "US intelligence", but I'm still holding off on a full scale invasion due to the cons outweighing the pros for Russia at this point. The conference between Putin and Biden on Saturday morning might give more insight into what exactly does Russia get from Ukraine, but it will probably just boil down to a bunch of finger pointing and "they're just warmongering!" comments from both of them.

Let's see if the US sends someone more competent than that British bint that Lavrov trolled.

 

[Techpriest]

An interesting theory I've seen floating around is that the troop build up is more or less "bargaining chips" for Russian officials to use. They'll pull out if they get their way and stay put if nothing changes. That being said, all that military build up can't stay there for long and due to Russias nearly batshit demands are not going anywhere soon, so there is doubt that said theory really has any proof actually behind it.

What the Russians were hoping was that the western powers were going to pressure Ukraine into taking any deal offered to avoid any kind of war. Three years ago, this might have worked, but the situation has changed dramatically in international politics with far firmer NATO commitment from the US. That, combined with the fact that Russia doesn’t and won’t stop playing fuck fuck games with ransomware, sending assassins to target regime dissidents abroad, and in general being a dick, has firmly shifted opinions. The Russians trying to coup Montenegro also was a huge opinion shifter. Politically the will to tell Russia to fuck off and die is now pretty firm in the west.

As someone who unfortunately works with high levels of government, I can say I genuinely don't believe Putin would be willing to risk it all for a country he can't control without causing a gigantic nightmare.
I fully believe hes willing to fight for places like Kazakhstan, where he has very little threat of losing it all or some other shitbox who gives a shit country that won't fight Russia well anyway, IE Georgia.

I really think this is a test to see with what Putin can get away with. I fully expect to see a slow but steady wind down now that more people are realizing and responding. We should have had plenty of troops on the ground weeks or months ago to give a definitive middle finger, but the current administration is run by crack-pipe dealing retards so I don't expect anything less but embarrassing incompetence.

High level my fucking ass. We’re already sending troops into Poland and Romania. We’re not sending a fuckload of troops to Europe immediately. That’d be an overreaction when we’re sending a bunch of aircraft over already, shifting troops, and otherwise increasing readiness. Putin thinks he can pull what he did in 2014 off again, but there’s so much in motion and invested and stated publicly by the Russians that they’re going to pull the trigger and risk it. It’s not going to go well.

 

[Henry V]

 

[Techpriest]

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Yeah no shit. The Russian goal with this invasion is going to be to set up a puppet government in Kyiv, or push the Dontesk out to the whole oblast. Either way, the result is going to be a disaster for the Russians economically and bloody militarily.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

So about that, uh, imminent invasion. What evidence is there for it, besides unhinged rhetoric from the White House?

 

[Techpriest]

So about that, uh, imminent invasion. What evidence is there for it, besides unhinged rhetoric from the White House?

-Construction of field hospitals
-Continuous troop build up
-Naval “Exercises” that cut off the entire Ukrainian coastline
-Unhinged Russian demands
-Russian refusals to engage in wider diplomacy
-Massive amounts of equipment on the way
-Time window shortening for sudden movement
-Insane amount of BTG’s on the border, something like a 200% increase and far larger than anything the Russians have EVER put in the area since 2014

Please go commit neckrope

 

[DumbDude42]

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maybe lukashenko in belarus can be told do do this by daddy putin and accept it
but i'm pretty sure most of the ruling class in kyiv would sooner flee the country and form a government-in-exile rather than accept a union with russia

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

-Construction of field hospitals
-Continuous troop build up
-Naval “Exercises” that cut off the entire Ukrainian coastline
-Unhinged Russian demands
-Russian refusals to engage in wider diplomacy
-Massive amounts of equipment on the way
-Time window shortening for sudden movement
-Insane amount of BTG’s on the border, something like a 200% increase and far larger than anything the Russians have EVER put in the area since 2014

Please go commit neckrope

That's all show. Let's talk sausage.

What does Putin have to profit from an invasion that he hasn't already gotten out of NATO?