@DrRandyMcDougal: 1/ sharing from a friend with a background in us intelligence My take so far: Russia is fighting a 1970s era war against a small but early 2000s era enemy. 2/ What I mean by...
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1/ sharing from a friend with a background in us intelligence My take so far: Russia is fighting a 1970s era war against a small but early 2000s era enemy.
2/ What I mean by 1970s: limited precision strikes, followed immediately multiple lines of armored advance (3 as Soviet doctrine commands, plus a 4th from the separatists who appear to be fighting alone).
3/ Offensive. Advances conducted by easiest routes possible - roadways - with avoidance of set battles en lieu of encirclements. Air assaults via helo/paratroopers to seize key C2 sites. Air Dominance if possible but not planned. This is Deep Strike War.
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15/ What can we learn from this? Russia is utterly incapable. Ukrainians resisted hybrid warfare and forced conventional conflict. Their doctrine does not fit modern warfare’s objectives. This is likely due to their limited material capabilities.
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18/ End game: Russia wins in a week or so but continues to face an insurgency, more virulent the longer the active phase of war goes on. Ukraine is forced to sign a Versailles style dearmament treaty and is forced into a Belarus-style vassal state situation.
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20/ Long term: The fucking French conventional army would mop the floor with Russia by the look of this. The Russians cannot fight a modern war and their bullying capability is limited, and would be ineffective against NATO’s air power alone -
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22/ This is a death-spasm, the fever breaking, and Russia’s decline is pretty much locked looking at this, simply from seeing how they fight. A US-Russian war would look like Iraq ‘91, both by overwhelming asymmetry and by multilateral coalition backing.
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^you can read the rest by clicking on the links, it's from a twitter account that looks to be dissident right-wing ish but the fact that it starts by "sharing from a friend with a background in us intelligence" is raising my eyebrows to the ceiling, wonder what the rest of you think?