War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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In the end Putler may not care about the sanctions since Russia is already piss poor and demographic wise they will be a Central Asian nation soon so why care? He can either become Chinas bitch or get eaten up the Mericans from the West and Turks/Saudi radicals from the south.
 
Like they did during WW1? Ask the Czar how that ended.
Russia in 1917 was doing better than it was earlier in the war.

I can "obey" my boss too, whether I work effectively and actually do a good job is another thing.
Where have the Russians not been doing a successful job?
 
"C-China will bail them out! Who cares that the EU was Russia's biggest trading partner? It's not like the world runs off the American dollar"

"T-the stock market is unimportant! Who cares about currency value anyways?"

"P-protests? Haha why would global opinion matter?"

Christ you guys are fucking stupid
It's ironic that you call us shills, and then ignore literally every single point that proves you are wrong. Go back to your bubble.
Aluminum, steel and gas are not sanctioned - no reason to worry.
Nor Oil.
Theory: I suspect the guy is using inaccurate machine translations of the border guard people and combining it with the claims of the Russian defense minister who the rumor mill confused with the Ukrainian defense minister to decide the people really are alive.
The statement came with a English version as well.
 
Northern Ireland, Op Banner/The Troubles. The Republicans achieved limited success in getting the Good Friday Agreement which has now led them to power sharing and could - eventually - see a united Ireland.
I talked about it a bit in the other invasion thread, while IRA had some wins with its bombing campaigns, and even the snipers in the countryside forcing Britain to start moving its troops via air rather than road due to patrols taking damages.

Overall the IRA only "won" because Britain held back hard, the IRA had popular support with left-wing media and political parties (Labour) in Britain.

Russia would artillery shell or airstrike one-shot paddy when he becomes annoying. If Ukraine wants to guerrilla with the bear they better hope that bear won't actually bring any teeth or claws.

EDIT: Forgot to mention when Britain did decide to get a bit serious in bringing in special forces they clapped the IRA's cheeks.
 
I think it's becoming pretty apparent that the first few days were Putin attempting a quick decapitation thrust like what the Soviets did in Czechoslovakia and Hungary and what he did with the Crimea expecting the Ukrainians wouldn't really fight back. Kiev will fall to a concerted Russian attack and they're committing more of their reserves to it now, but it won't be quick and clean like how Putin wanted.
Am sure the Ukrainians have a fall-back strategy should Kyiv fall. Would think Lviv. Most of Ukraine hasn't seen a Russian soldier yet. Every day the Russians seem to weaken. Apparently very poor logistics. This isn't the old Red Army. Russians don't have the numbers anymore. My guess - this is taking the bulk of the available combat-ready forces. Others are needed in the Far East. In any modern military, the actual trigger-pullers are far fewer than you might think. Modern warfare relies on a pretty extensive services and supply operation, extending all the way from the homeland to the front lines. The ratio of tooth to tail can be surprisingly heavily weighted towards the tail.

Don't get the anus clenched over reserves, in Russia's case. May have the numbers, likely to have few combat-ready formations. We have the same issue here. National Guard "round-out" brigades are assigned to each Regular Army division. Can take some time to get them up to snuff, saw that in Desert Shield/Storm.

Just had a chilling thought - if Putin gets frustrated enough in Ukraine, may see him use/threaten use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Put nothing past this man.
 
Just had a chilling thought - if Putin gets frustrated enough in Ukraine, may see him use/threaten use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Put nothing past this man.
"It has been a long time since the threat of using nuclear weapons has been brandished so openly by a world leader, but Vladimir Putin has just done it, warning in a speech that he has the weapons available if anyone dares to use military means to try to stop Russia’s takeover of Ukraine."

 
No it was not. The Czar eventually got deposed, and the Marxists eventually won control, just because the Germans kept crushing them in the Eastern Front, and people in Russia grew tired of the war.
The Germans couldn't break through to their heartland, that's why they instigated the October Revolution and the ensuing civil war, which the Whites could have one, had they been a a bit more competent.
 
"It has been a long time since the threat of using nuclear weapons has been brandished so openly by a world leader, but Vladimir Putin has just done it, warning in a speech that he has the weapons available if anyone dares to use military means to try to stop Russia’s takeover of Ukraine."

And with this Putin makes himself more of a pariah. A tacit admission his conventional forces are not able to win quickly in Ukraine. The butthurt is epic with ol' Vlad these days.

Dude, declare victory and leave.
 
Regarding whether delays in the invasion are an issue for the Russians, to the extent that the war is intended for domestic consumption I think that they really are. The oligarchs aren't going to like the monetary price of a drawn-out conflict, and the rest of the people are going to see Putin as a weaker horse than they had thought.
 
People need to understand this:

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The Germans couldn't break through to their heartland, that's why they instigated the October Revolution and the ensuing civil war, which the Whites could have one, had they been a a bit more competent.
The Whites lost because they were disorganized as fuck, and the people were tired of the war, and every offensive they launched against the Germans ended in crushing defeat.


There's two problems with those assessments:

Modern technology makes war faster in terms of transporting troops and firepower when compared to WW2. When Poland was invaded, both Poland and Germany still used horses.

Iraq is on the other side of the world as America. It doesn't have a capital that is within driving distance of a next-door neighbor, the way Kiev is to Russia thanks to Belarus.
 
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While I don't speak German, I'm reasonably confident that's another 1k anti tank weapons, and 500 MANPADs. The Dutch are also sending 50 AT launchers w/ 400 rockets and a couple of hundred stingers as well. Fuck even Estonia is getting in on it and they're sending some old howitzers, which while old will still go boom when they need.

Don't really know much about kraut/dutch weapon systems so I decided to look them up and honestly, those Panzerfausts sound like nifty bits of kit. Not guided like the Javelins/NLAWs we've been sending, so more akin to RPGs than anything, which should be great from a training/tactical perspective. What really struck me was this bit:
Though this original rocket lacks a precursor charge and is not effective against tanks equipped with Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA). To address this shortcoming newer and improved versions of the rocket with tandem HEAT warheads were introduced. Furthermore the warhead can be simply switched to generate a High Explosive Squash Head effect by not extending the probe. In this mode it is used against buildings and lightly armored vehicles. It can be also used breaching the walls in order to allow forced entries into buildings.

If that's true (and assuming they're being supplied with those particular rockets) that's an incredibly effective and flexible weapon. HESH is wildly underrated in modern combat, and it's the reason we kept a rifled gun on our Challengers for so fucking long.
 
If that's true (and assuming they're being supplied with those particular rockets) that's an incredibly effective and flexible weapon. HESH is wildly underrated in modern combat, and it's the reason we kept a rifled gun on our Challengers for so fucking long.
That is correct for the 90mm Matador. Not sure if the Panzerfaust 3 (110mm) has that type of warhead yet.
 
Just did a little looking around. The world is jumping on Putin. Surely he has realized he's totally fucked this up. Dude, declare victory and go home. You are uniting the world against you.
That video of the mobile SAM launcher swerving to crush some old guy's car is what Westerners are going to take away from this conflict, unless something worse is caught on camera. Putin should've known how Americans experience violence through their TVs while generally living quite peaceful lives in reality. Putin could declare the driver a renegade and personally execute him in Red Square and it wouldn't matter. Too late. Keeping it in Luhansk and Donetsk would significantly reduce the odds of shit like this happening.

If you're not aligned with the US, you have three options with violence:
1. Keep it off camera. Censor, shoot journalists, smash cameras, cut off the internet, etc. The PRC would've turned into North Korea if the driver of one of those tanks had run over tank man in 1989, instead of waiting for secret police officers drag him off and summarily execute him in an alley or police station.
2. Be very careful to restrict it to military targets. For every 10 civilians that the US gets to kill and shrug off as justified collateral damage, you only get one. North Vietnam and the VC were good about this, and the civvies that they did kill were either not reported, or better yet blamed on the US. They were also the first country to defeat the US using TV when they got Cronkite to say the war was not winnable.
3. Be a non-state actor, or have a non-state actor do it on your behalf. The Saudis probably destroyed the American Empire with 9/11.

Putin spent the past 20 years building an image in the west that had large swaths of the population viewing him neutrally or only somewhat unfavorably. He is white, Christian (more importantly not Muslim), not communist or socialist, and didn't really affect American's daily lives. He didn't hand the US a humiliating military defeat. He let the US invade Iraq, which was a classic "don't stop your adversary from making a mistake" moment for Russia. I'm guessing he doesn't care because he has calculated that he can export all his oil to China and India, and other important goods to Brazil. But if it's a miscalculation, he's fucked.

In pro wrestling terms, Putin has turned heel. And violent geopolitcal conflicts are exactly like professional wrestling until an actual war takes place.
 
One of the reasons why the US lost in 'Nam is that there was no clear picture of what "winning" looked like, especially against an enemy where any random old lady could be a guerrilla fighter ready to put a shank in a GI.

I feel like this is what Putin just stuck his dick in. Yeah, he can replace Zelinskyy with a puppet head, but the people won't accept that.
 
One of the reasons why the US lost in 'Nam is that there was no clear picture of what "winning" looked like, especially against an enemy where any random old lady could be a guerrilla fighter ready to put a shank in a GI.

I feel like this is what Putin just stuck his dick in. Yeah, he can replace Zelinskyy with a puppet head, but the people won't accept that.
Nah dude it's cuz there were mountains near by.
 
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