- Joined
- Oct 7, 2018
G
Russia was barely having any relevancy before this anyway. Except for oil.As far as I'm concerned, Putin drove Russia to a national suicide the moment he attacked Ukraine.
The sanctions are something the Russian economy can never recover from in its current state. The living standard of the average person will fall drastically, he can no longer travel abroad, he can no longer purchase the goods he used and all his savings will vanish. There will be no real economic development in Russia anymore. Once the ability of the government to trade and gain international currency dries up, inflation will spike up. We might see something very similar happening to Russia as what happened to Venezuela. The difference is that Venezuela never had any delusions of being a relevant world power. Russia does. They wish to create a rival "Russian world" to the current "Atlantic world." This will never work.
Russia as we know it today will fall. It is only a matter of time. The only way to keep any sort of control is to go full "North Korea" and become an international pariah that brutally destroys any internal dissent. I don't think that Putin will be able to manage that. There are way too many rival forces with power and way too much to lose to allow him to do that. Whatever rises from the ashes will be something completely different to Russia as we know it today.
The danger is that Russia in its death throes is a dangerous beast that might lash out unpredictably. We cannot know what will happen if the Russian leadership decides that the game is over for them unless they do something extremely drastic. Considering the ultranationalist in control of Russia, this could very well mean a major war.
"Why do we need the world if Russia is not in it?"