Reasonable.I still think NATO expansion is the single most important factor.
Russia may have been privy to information, or misinformation, that Ukraine was certainly heading towards NATO membership, given another decade or two.
If that's something the Kremlin decided to be a definitive red line, it would make sense to deal with the issue now, rather than give it another 5 years of weapons being funneled into Ukraine. The Minsk Agreements obviously weren't working out as intended, despite ample time passing.