War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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I think that Russia already lost, regardless if they will take control over Ukraine or not. Let's get some context here: Recent years were really painful for it's economy. Covid hit it hard, it's economic growth is crap, especially compared to other emerging markets like Brazil, and has long and even worsening demographic and social problems. It's only real saving grace is natural resources.

They were preparing this invasion for a long time. Increasing their budget, cutting social expenses and infrastructure. However, they keep huge amount of that money in Federal Reserve. Yes, I'm not even kidding. And now, Putin started a war. To move cogs and gears of war machine, you need money. A lot of it. Ukraine didnt fold as easily as they wanted. So they need to spend more that they already anticipated. Winter was shorter and less cold that they wished to, so imbalance on energy market were worse for them than expected.

And now let's look at the economy. 1 dollar used to buy you around 70 rubles. Today it is 110 according to FX market. However, russian citizens don't pay these rates. In internet there are circulating photos of exchange rate in cantors of 1 dollar to 250 rubles. Interest rate was set up to whooping 20%. All of this would send growing economy in, good condition to a crisis. Russian economy, however is not in good condition and was not in good condition before war.
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Real knock out punch would be gas prices, Russia main export. It is possible that US can pressure OPEC to extract more gas, it happen in the past. However, increasing output cannot happen overnight. I don't know how long it takes, but if OPEC start pumping more gas and if Ukraine will be still fighting I have no doubt in my mind that Russia will simply crumble.
Agree with everything except the gas part.
Europe have infrastructure to handle gas from Russia via various pipelines.
But you can not move pipelines.
If OPEC increases gas output (doubtful I will expand below) they have no feasible way to deliver it to europe.

Other OPEC country with gas could build a pipeline to ship gas to Europe. This takes 10-20 years to design/build/complete.
Other OPEC country could ship LNG by ship to Europe, But europe has no Terminals to handle these ships, because they have pipelines. Building such terminals is a 10-20year project before they can go live.


GAS and LNG is not like OIL where you have terminals and refineries everywhere to process the product before it can be used commercially.
There is very little alternative infrastructure for GAS and LNG and to build new terminals are a 10-20 year project.


OPEC can in my opinion not increase gas or lng shipments in any meaningful way because there are no terminals available to ship it from OPEC (no spare capacity) and no terminals available at the destination to receive it (facilities do not exist).


IMHO: Their choice is to do nothing or switch away from russian gas to mostly NOTHING for the next 10 years or more.
It is likely morally right thing to do, but it will come at a steep steep price to domestic energy dependent industries and population.
IF they cut off the energy they have more balls that I would have in their position.
 
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I think that Russia already lost, regardless if they will take control over Ukraine or not. Let's get some context here: Recent years were really painful for it's economy. Covid hit it hard, it's economic growth is crap, especially compared to other emerging markets like Brazil, and has long and even worsening demographic and social problems. It's only real saving grace is natural resources.

They were preparing this invasion for a long time. Increasing their budget, cutting social expenses and infrastructure. However, they keep huge amount of that money in Federal Reserve. Yes, I'm not even kidding. And now, Putin started a war. To move cogs and gears of war machine, you need money. A lot of it. Ukraine didnt fold as easily as they wanted. So they need to spend more that they already anticipated. Winter was shorter and less cold that they wished to, so imbalance on energy market were worse for them than expected.

And now let's look at the economy. 1 dollar used to buy you around 70 rubles. Today it is 110 according to FX market. However, russian citizens don't pay these rates. In internet there are circulating photos of exchange rate in cantors of 1 dollar to 250 rubles. Interest rate was set up to whooping 20%. All of this would send growing economy in, good condition to a crisis. Russian economy, however is not in good condition and was not in good condition before war.
View attachment 3030591
Real knock out punch would be gas prices, Russia main export. It is possible that US can pressure OPEC to extract more gas, it happen in the past. However, increasing output cannot happen overnight. I don't know how long it takes, but if OPEC start pumping more gas and if Ukraine will be still fighting I have no doubt in my mind that Russia will simply crumble.
The idea that Russia is going to lose can only happens if the Ukrainians keep up this level of high morale and resistance against them for a long time. However, the situation indicated that they most likely will suffer a big defeat soon because of encirclement of key cities like Kyiv or Kharkov. Which then begs the question, if Kyiv falls, would that demoralized the Ukrainians? Or would that even emboldened them further to take revenge against the Russians?

That said, the economic situation of Russia is looking very grim. It has now become a battle of attrition, whether or not Russian economy broke first before the Ukrainians' morale did
 
I cant wait for the anime about this where hero leads a small comando force into moscow forcing the army to return home.

Also Ukraine cat girls and russian gaint robots
 
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There's lots of evidence of Nazi militias operating with impunity in eastern Ukraine. It's mostly just little stuff like the Azov Battalion doing things like gathering up Russian speaking families and executing them a dozen at a time.
I bet that's not propaganda at all and there's decent proof of that
btw one of first leaders of "Doneck Republic" was a russian neo-nazi
 
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I cant wait for the anime about this where hero leads a small comando force into moscow forcing the army to return home.

Also Ukraine cat girls and russian gaint robots
Will the ukrainian cat girls have blue eyes and big boobs? Asking for a frie^Wmyself.
 
Google Europe:
Due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, we’re blocking YouTube channels connected to RT and Sputnik across Europe, effective immediately. It’ll take time for our systems to fully ramp up. Our teams continue to monitor the situation around the clock to take swift action.
Years, if not decades, of building up propaganda networks, all gone in just matter of days
(link)
 
I’ve just seen a few bits where apparently the Russian Army thought they were just on a training drill, until they were told to drive into Ukraine. They found out about the invasion about an hour before the Ukrainians. Which seems absurd, until you start looking at the pictures coming out of Ukraine. It’s clear nobody on the ground in the Russian Army was in any way prepared for this.
There are videos of russian soldiers saying this and the ambassador of the Ukraine read a text message of a young russian soldier who was killed in front of the UN. He texted his parents and told them it was supposed to be just a drill and he was horrified that ukrainian people threw themselves in front of the tanks to stop them. I don't know if it's real but something weird is going on.


Perhaps it's true. Lots of Russians have family members and friends in the Ukraine. If you tell them to invade the country they won't do it but if you say it's just an "exercise"...well then it's just that and nothing more, right? Oh how wrong they were...
 
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This was taken from Roman of NFKRZ’s Telegram channel. Apparently the exchange rate for the ruble is even worse than official reports make it out to be.
 
The idea that Russia is going to lose can only happens if the Ukrainians keep up this level of high morale and resistance against them for a long time. However, the situation indicated that they most likely will suffer a big defeat soon because of encirclement of key cities like Kyiv or Kharkov. Which then begs the question, if Kyiv falls, would that demoralized the Ukrainians? Or would that even emboldened them further to take revenge against the Russians?
Ukrainians are fighting to defend their homeland from a foreign invader. That will give them all the morale they need. Remember Afghanistan (both U.S. and Russia), Iraq, Vietnam. Determined peoples fighting on their own homefront have a distinct advantage and a fundamental reason to fight. Its the morale of the Russian Army that is the biggest question mark.
 
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Another update from Roman, this time from his Instagram page. Apparently there are massive bank runs happening in Moscow and the few banks that aren’t sanctioned don’t have enough cash to go around. Looks like the sanctions are already having twice the desired effect. If this is how the ordinary Russian citizen is reacting to the sanctions, I genuinely question what the oligarchs are going through since the overwhelming majority of them got sanctioned personally. Putin definitely has a Yeltsin-level crisis going on domestically right now. I'm just saying man: Russia's lucky that they're a net grain exporter because if bread lines become a thing again, Putin's basically got no hope of maintaining even the slightest grip of power. I would make a Lebanese hyperinflation comparison here, but Russia's economy is significantly more diversified than Lebanon's ever was.
 

Russia Used A Vacuum Bomb During Invasion, Claims Ukraine​

"They used the vacuum bomb today, which is actually prohibited by the Geneva convention," said Ukrainian ambassador to the US.​


Human rights groups and Ukraine's ambassador to the United States on Monday accused Russia of attacking Ukrainians with cluster bombs and vacuum bombs, weapons that have been condemned by a variety of international organizations.

Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch both said that Russian forces appeared to have used widely banned cluster munitions, with Amnesty accusing them of attacking a preschool in northeastern Ukraine while civilians took shelter inside.

Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, told reporters after meeting with members of the U.S. Congress that Russia had used a thermobaric weapon, known as a vacuum bomb, in its invasion of her country.

"They used the vacuum bomb today," Markarova said after a meeting with lawmakers. "...The devastation that Russia is trying to inflict on Ukraine is large."

A vacuum bomb, or thermobaric weapon, sucks in oxygen from the surrounding air to generate a high-temperature explosion, typically producing a blast wave of a significantly longer duration than that of a conventional explosive and is capable of vaporizing human bodies.

There has been no official confirmation that thermobaric weapons have been used in the conflict in Ukraine. CNN reported that one of its teams had spotted a Russian thermobaric multiple rocket launcher near the Ukrainian border early on Saturday afternoon.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she had seen reports but did not have confirmation that Russia had used such weapons. "If that were true, it would potentially be a war crime," she told a press briefing, noting that there are international organizations that would assess that and President Joe Biden's administration "would look to be a part of that conversation."

The Russian embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment.

Markarova said Ukraine was working actively with the Biden administration and Congress to obtain more weapons and tougher sanctions.

"They should pay, they should pay a heavy price," she told reporters after leaving the meeting.

One lawmaker who attended the meeting, Democratic Representative Brad Sherman, said the Ukrainians had asked for a U.S.-enforced no-fly zone over Ukraine but that he felt that was too dangerous because it could provoke conflict with Russia.

Amnesty International said international humanitarian law prohibits the use of inherently indiscriminate weapons such as cluster munitions. Launching indiscriminate attacks that kill or injure civilians constitutes a war crime.

 
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This was taken from Roman of NFKRZ’s Telegram channel. Apparently the exchange rate for the ruble is even worse than official reports make it out to be.

The Tinkoff Bank exchange rate is the absolute highest one out of any bank on Russia at the moment, by at least 30 rubles over any other option.

The situation is bad but using that screenshot is a cherry pick
 

Belarus joins Russia’s war on Ukraine​

Minsk sends troops to Chernihiv region, north of the capital Kyiv.

Belarus joined the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Tuesday, with the country’s troops entering the Chernihiv region in northern Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities confirmed.

In a tweet posted on Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, confirmed earlier reports that Belarusian troops were on Ukrainian soil.

“Belarusian troops have entered Chernihiv region. The information was confirmed to the public by Vitaliy Kyrylov, spokesman for the North Territorial Defense Forces. More details later,” the tweet said.

According to local reports, a Belarusian column of 33 units had entered the region, located north of Kyiv, with mobile communications cut.

The Belarusian rollout comes a couple days after authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko held a referendum on proposed changes to the constitution that would allow him consolidate control of the country and end Belarus’ status as a nuclear-free zone — opening the way for a possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in the country.

Unsurprisingly, Lukashenko’s side won the referendum, according to Russian news agencies, citing Belarus’ central elections commission that 65.16 percent of those who took part voted in favor.


 

Belarus joins Russia’s war on Ukraine​

Minsk sends troops to Chernihiv region, north of the capital Kyiv.

Belarus joined the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Tuesday, with the country’s troops entering the Chernihiv region in northern Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities confirmed.

In a tweet posted on Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, confirmed earlier reports that Belarusian troops were on Ukrainian soil.

“Belarusian troops have entered Chernihiv region. The information was confirmed to the public by Vitaliy Kyrylov, spokesman for the North Territorial Defense Forces. More details later,” the tweet said.

According to local reports, a Belarusian column of 33 units had entered the region, located north of Kyiv, with mobile communications cut.

The Belarusian rollout comes a couple days after authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko held a referendum on proposed changes to the constitution that would allow him consolidate control of the country and end Belarus’ status as a nuclear-free zone — opening the way for a possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in the country.

Unsurprisingly, Lukashenko’s side won the referendum, according to Russian news agencies, citing Belarus’ central elections commission that 65.16 percent of those who took part voted in favor.


Given the moral and equipment of Russian troops, you've got to wonder what Belarusian soldiers are going to be like. That country is a complete backwater.

Plus, I would suspect Putin would rather their sons died than Russian ones - his backlash at home won't be as intense. Poor fuckers.
 
Given the moral and equipment of Russian troops, you've got to wonder what Belarusian soldiers are going to be like. That country is a complete backwater.

Plus, I would suspect Putin would rather their sons died than Russian ones - his backlash at home won't be as intense. Poor fuckers.
Lukashenko is a moron who just set his country up to get fucked in every way possible. The only thing holding Russia together, and preventing its economy from collapsing, is that Russia exports so much of the West's oil and natural gas. Belarus has no such protection. The west is now free to fuck that country up as much as it likes, and Russia's own economic issues ensure that it can't do anything to help.
 
The narrative is quite different between this thread and the other and I kinda don’t know what to with that information because while this one is more hopeful of Ukraine and its outlooks the other has some people who kinda seem to know shit saying this is pretty much gonna make life shit for everyone for years to come. The global economy certainly isn’t stable that is for sure. I dunno how to reconcile it and form any sort of opinion that isn’t ‘war bad, tree pretty‘.
 
The narrative is quite different between this thread and the other and I kinda don’t know what to with that information because while this one is more hopeful of Ukraine and its outlooks the other has some people who kinda seem to know shit saying this is pretty much gonna make life shit for everyone for years to come. The global economy certainly isn’t stable that is for sure. I dunno how to reconcile it and form any sort of opinion that isn’t ‘war bad, tree pretty‘.
I don't think anyone here thinks this is going to end well for Ukraine just it will end up hurting Russia far worse. I mean even in the best-case but totally unrealistic scenario in which Russia leaves Ukraine today, the Ukrainians would still have to deal with rebuilding the damage that has been done and mass trauma this event would have caused much of their population at the very least and likely will have a hard time getting outside business to invest in their country for a long time in case another invasion happened again.

But it does feel good that Ukrainians are putting up this fight which most people including myself didn't think they would, it's a very underdog like story which makes it hard not to root for them on some level.
 
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