Russian Invasion of Ukraine (2022): Thread 1 - Ukrainian Liars vs Russian Liars with Air and Artillery Superiority

[The Ugly One]

India isn't a reliable partner. India buys a shitload of military equipment from Russia, but that consideration is no longer on the table because of all the sanctions that have been levied against Russia's technology sector. I've touched upon this in a previous post, but India also doesn't have as deep of a friendship with Russia as you might think.

It's less about India's "friendship" with Russia than India's resistance to becoming an American vassal state. Historically, countries like this will refuse to participate in American embargoes. I expect that any country that declined to participate in America's embargoes of Iran and Cuba to have the same enthusiasm toward a global Russia embargo. Your average redditor might think Kalenshsky is Captain America, heroically standing against the forces of evil, but your average head of state knows the score: Kalenshksy's an American toady, and the only reason Washington cares about this shithole more than other similarly economically significant countries (Kazakhstan and Peru have higher GDPs than Ukraine, lmao) is Burisma writing paychecks to America's ruling class.

If they participate in a Russia embargo, it's not going to be because they care about a Slavic shithole's kleptocracy, it's going to be because they fear economic repercussions from the USA. In fact, I bet a lot of these countries are more concerned about how the USA is now using SWIFT as a cudgel than how some random tinpot republic asshole got on Putin's bad side. What any head of state needs to be thinking is, how far will Washington really go to crack down on Russia for turning Hunter's paypig into sausage? Is it going to be like Iran, where it's all sound and fury in the end? The current administration has the attention span of a gnat, so that seems likely. Or is Washington seriously willing to rip the global economy to shreds just to get back at Moscow?

 

[Saleh]

"Tonight Putin has launched what appears to be the largest airborne assault of the invasion "

"It is likely a final push to take control of the SE approach to Kharkiv, a city he expected to take quickly without resistance & be welcomed by grateful residents as a liberator"

Russian Market Garden level of fuckup incoming?

 

[Chandelier]

Exxon-Mobil just announced that they're pulling out of Russia. Which does make me wonder - how capable are the Russians of keeping their current oil and gas extraction industry going without western finance and expertise? I know that Russian wells have been increasingly difficult to run over the last two decades but I wonder to what degree western capital has been relied on to keep things going...

I legitimately don't have an answer to this question. Will be interesting to see.

Fine, as I imagine. They have had time to broaden their expertise and will simply use Chinese engineers that are not impeded by any sanctions.

BP and Exxon Mobil really think they're wagging the dog here yet Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations are not remotely affected by these sanctions. America is still importing Russian oil and Germany is 50% reliant on it.

Wait a while and see if the ruble dips, crashes, or remains stable.

 

[Joe Swanson]

I suspect this is going to be a long war. It looks like in a lot of places, Russia is switching over to siege warfare.

I honestly don't think a modern western population have the willpower to endure a proper siege

 

[draggs]

Americans need to chant "everyone elses stuff is shit made by goblins out of scrap iron" sitting on their $50,000 Raytheon Tactical Buttock Supporters as Chinese hypersonic missiles annihilate their carrier group, or they are blown up by a rusty 1970s soviet land mine strapped to a donkey, because USA #1 is a question of identity not rational judegement

America's stuff is the best in a lot of cases but there are areas where other militarily come close to or exceed their capabilities

Russia's ewar, artillery and medium rage missile capabilities for example probably meets or exceeds the americans

Russia and US have been going nuts with the ewar stuff in Syria and neither side has had much success at fucking up the other side's radar and comms and shit. That whole thing has been a huge opportunity for them to test out their ewar toys on each other and it's been a wash

 

[Breadbassket]

US Senator Marco Rubio claims Putin has launched the largest airborne assault of the invasion thus far.

 

[Meat Target]

I suspect this is going to be a long war. It looks like in a lot of places, Russia is switching over to siege warfare.

Anticipating a swift and decisive war is what the military equivalents of Paul Krugman do.

 

[naffatune]

Rus troops take a load off.

 

[AnonAutismo]

Reporting for any pro-Ukraine media outlet currently is a combination of stories of glorious victories and desperate cries for help.

Lol I noticed that too. They alternate between arguing how the West needs to establish a no fly zone over the country and launch worse sanctions while also claiming that they’ve stopped the Russians in their tracks, their anti air defenses are still intact and Russia can’t maintain air superiority, etc. If the latter is true then why does Ukraine demand a stronger Western response against Russia?

 

[Abradolfus_Linclerson]

There's a lot more, but even a fucking journalist should be able to understand that.

Methinks thou dost hold in too high esteem the mind and reasoning of yon journalists...

 

[Feline Supremacist]

They're all corrupt, period.

But Russia attacked Ukraine, not the other way around. My sympathies lie with Ukraine for that reason. Have donated to help Ukrainian children affected by this war.

Observations. Fighting in Syria is rather different from fighting somewhere like Ukraine. The invasion should have been planned as a quick, hard, combined-arms strike from the get-go. Russia should have had air supremacy within hours, no matter what level of resistance Ukraine put up. Instead, like just about all the rest of this operation, the Russians have been tentative at best, clueless at worst. Just now are the Russians moving to a more active mode. Can the Russians win? Yes, if by no other means than brute force, just like against the Finns in 1940, the Hungarians in 1956, and the Czechs in 1968.

The initial stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine show either inherently poor General Staff-level planning, coordination, and execution, and/or at the operational level inherently poor ability to understand the plans provided them, devise effective operational orders, coordinate with supporting organizations, such as logistics, and execute these orders. Rest assured intelligence agencies all over, as well as many General Staffs, are watching what's going on, scrutinizing Russian actions and fuckups, writing up lessons learned, and getting those lessons learned out to all levels. Are the Russians doing the same? Got me. Surely the Russian General Staff is smarter and more professional that what we're seeing. I just know what we would do and very likely are doing.

On the Ukrainian side, there appears to have been some degree of planning for an invasion, knowing the actual time/place of the attack lies with the enemy. Keep in mind Ukraine has only a small fraction of the resources available to Russia. They're doing the best they can with what they have. Same cannot be said for Russia.

To fail to plan is to plan to fail. Bad enough in a command post/field exercise, inexcusable when lives are being put in harm's way. Once again, some dumb fucks in Moscow sit in their offices and drink tea/coffee/vodka while troops in the field run out of supplies or get blown up by flying drones. Not saying US planning is always perfect. Sure isn't. But a great deal of effort is put into planning and coordination, from personal experience.

Seriously, Vlad, your shit gets weaker every day. Declare victory and go home.

In reference to Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Bolsonaro said Ukrainians have "placed the hope of their nation in the hands of a comedian."

His is probably the best assessment of Ukraine's role in their current predicament.

 

[XYZpdq]

not iPhone! Medvedev's favorite phone all time

not photoshop, btw

View attachment 3032704

you have been disconnected

View attachment 3032714


Medvedev's previous smartphone

old soviet phones were so smart they listened to you years before the rest of the world's phones!

And if that happens I'd like to think KF will move to making fun of any surviving troons on shortwave radio.

BREAKER BREAKER THIS IS THE PICKLE SUIT PRINCE, LOOKING AT A COW IN THE POUND, COW IN THE POUND OVER

 

[Jump]

Goddammit. One of my dumbass friends wants to fight for Ukraine now.
Can you even get a passport as a convicted felon?

Ukraine isn't checking visa's or doing background checks.

 

[mofu mofo]

Russian Market Garden level of fuckup incoming?

I think the Ukrainians will be hoping for something more like Operation Jubilee.

 

[Meat Target]

In reference to Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Bolsonaro said Ukrainians have "placed the hope of their nation in the hands of a comedian."

His is probably the best assessment of Ukraine's role in their current predicament.

I mean, we elected a game show host turned shitposter....

 

[K-Hole]

They're all corrupt, period.

But Russia attacked Ukraine, not the other way around. My sympathies lie with Ukraine for that reason. Have donated to help Ukrainian children affected by this war.

Ukraine got the slightly shittier end of the stick. Love to back an under dog. So they get my vote too. They probably aren't great people. Their government is probably worse. But wtf, who cares. It's either them or mad Vlad.

Seriously, Vlad, your shit gets weaker every day. Declare victory and go home.

Yeah it does. But pretty soon he won't be able to go home. Now youse can't leave.


This is a war that no American will have a hand in winning. For once in a while.

You can't even influence it. Not even by CIA means.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the great convoy hits Kiev. How the euros will battle it out.

 

[burntwater]

US Senator Marco Rubio claims Putin has launched the largest airborne assault of the invasion thus far.
View attachment 3032882

 

[MrJokerRager]

Biggest takeaway from the last week: Under no circumstances should you become dependent on Big Tech and anything that is digitized.

They're going to do this to you for much less than starting a war.

It could be interesting if this was a galaxy brain move by Putin to go for broke and test how much is Russia reliant on the west and identifying weaknesses.

All those sanctions and boycotts are telling those Russian folks over there, how much is their supply chain reliant on their enemies.

 

[HumanHive]

Its really not all that surprising. Historically, it just seems like there's a certain scale beyond with any operations supply line can be thought of in terms of when it will collapse, not if it will collapse. Its bad sure, but people are acting like this is an elementary problem, "Lol stupid Russians just bring more boolet". When armchair generals say experts study logistics, they're correct in a sense - Logistics is a far harder problem than war, and war is already a near impossible problem to 'solve'.

No, I think Americans have long since proved you can indeed have slick modern logistics, and in fact that’s really America’s specialty.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

US Senator Marco Rubio claims Putin has launched the largest airborne assault of the invasion thus far.
View attachment 3032882

I'd love to borrow the magic telepathy medallion everyone's using to read Putin's mind.