Anne I. O'Nick
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jan 1, 2022
Without taking a moral stance, I would like to look at how the first week of the campaign has gone compared to a previous campaign that the USSR planned during the Cold War.
In 1979, Soviet planners considered how to wargame a reactive scenario where the West made a first strike on Poland and Czechslovakia, destroying Poland's operational contributions. Their response to this was called "Seven Days to the River Rhine". In it, they planned and predicted that in 7 days, they would be able to break through NATO defensive positions along the East/West German border and conquer Germany, pushing as far as the Rhine, capturing or destroying most major West German cities as they went. In the extended scenario, by day 9 they would have reached Lyon in France.
I think this is interesting to compare to now, after 7 days, Russia has not managed to capture the or even begin ground combat for the centre of the capital of a minor Eastern European country only 50 miles from the staging areas in Belarus.
The situation is of course different - the modern Russian military is smaller and less motivated than at the height of the Cold War, but likewise they face only the Ukrainian defenders. I am convinced that Russia will overcome Kiev, but they have seemingly made it much harder than it has to be. Every day brings more, new sanctions - a quick push over the 50 miles to Kiev and capturing it in a few days would quickly have stopped being news, with instead a focus on the diplomatic negotiations for what to do with Russia-Occupied Ukraine. It was only after the weekend that the Ruble crashed, 3 days into the action. A decisive outcome would likely have not had half the effect we have seen instead.
I think Putin has miscalculated not the outcome of this war, but the capability, speed, and cost, and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out economically in the long term.
In 1979, Soviet planners considered how to wargame a reactive scenario where the West made a first strike on Poland and Czechslovakia, destroying Poland's operational contributions. Their response to this was called "Seven Days to the River Rhine". In it, they planned and predicted that in 7 days, they would be able to break through NATO defensive positions along the East/West German border and conquer Germany, pushing as far as the Rhine, capturing or destroying most major West German cities as they went. In the extended scenario, by day 9 they would have reached Lyon in France.
The situation is of course different - the modern Russian military is smaller and less motivated than at the height of the Cold War, but likewise they face only the Ukrainian defenders. I am convinced that Russia will overcome Kiev, but they have seemingly made it much harder than it has to be. Every day brings more, new sanctions - a quick push over the 50 miles to Kiev and capturing it in a few days would quickly have stopped being news, with instead a focus on the diplomatic negotiations for what to do with Russia-Occupied Ukraine. It was only after the weekend that the Ruble crashed, 3 days into the action. A decisive outcome would likely have not had half the effect we have seen instead.
I think Putin has miscalculated not the outcome of this war, but the capability, speed, and cost, and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out economically in the long term.
Last edited:
