Marley Rathbone
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Nov 22, 2021
Looking at the related map of Russian advancement over the Ukraine, here is my armchair/chicken tendies/basement analysis of the event:
Russia's plan was never to occupy Ukraine, but to complete the liberation of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, form a land corridor all along the coast of the Azov sea to Crimea, and to secure Kherson so that Crimea's water supply would never be cut off or reduced.
That is their territorial objective, and the only one that matters.
Their secondary objectives in the North is mostly a feint to tie down the Ukrainian army.
The 40 mile convoy north of Kiev is only meant to keep Ukrainian defenses tied up in the North while the Russians complete their objectives in the South.
Putin doesn't have any intention of assaulting or occupying any other cities that do not have an overwhelmingly massive number of Russian speakers. That would be expensive and he has little or nothing to gain, especially in the propaganda war. Securing the south, the coast of the Sea of Azov and water for Crimea is all they need, because that leaves little for Ukraine other than Odessa, which the Russian fleet at Sevastopol can blockade with ease since Ukraine no longer has a navy.
In Putin's mind, taking out Zelensky or the Ukrainian government would be nice, but unnecessary. It would be an added bonus, but it is not an objective. Putin prefers having Zelensky in position because the latter doesn't understand military matters, geopolitics, security, intelligence, economics, etc. He's like their version of Joe Biden except he was just a comedian and doesn't have widespread support among his own people, despite the massive glowie campaign to make it appears as though he is loved and revered.
Since Russia's territorial demands are almost complete, they will start to reduce ground forces but beef up air defense units in their new areas.
If they do keep token land forces in the North, those will be the same conscript/low value military who are only there for show and to keep NATO and the Ukrainians army tied up.
Russia's plan was never to occupy Ukraine, but to complete the liberation of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, form a land corridor all along the coast of the Azov sea to Crimea, and to secure Kherson so that Crimea's water supply would never be cut off or reduced.
That is their territorial objective, and the only one that matters.
Their secondary objectives in the North is mostly a feint to tie down the Ukrainian army.
The 40 mile convoy north of Kiev is only meant to keep Ukrainian defenses tied up in the North while the Russians complete their objectives in the South.
Putin doesn't have any intention of assaulting or occupying any other cities that do not have an overwhelmingly massive number of Russian speakers. That would be expensive and he has little or nothing to gain, especially in the propaganda war. Securing the south, the coast of the Sea of Azov and water for Crimea is all they need, because that leaves little for Ukraine other than Odessa, which the Russian fleet at Sevastopol can blockade with ease since Ukraine no longer has a navy.
In Putin's mind, taking out Zelensky or the Ukrainian government would be nice, but unnecessary. It would be an added bonus, but it is not an objective. Putin prefers having Zelensky in position because the latter doesn't understand military matters, geopolitics, security, intelligence, economics, etc. He's like their version of Joe Biden except he was just a comedian and doesn't have widespread support among his own people, despite the massive glowie campaign to make it appears as though he is loved and revered.
Since Russia's territorial demands are almost complete, they will start to reduce ground forces but beef up air defense units in their new areas.
If they do keep token land forces in the North, those will be the same conscript/low value military who are only there for show and to keep NATO and the Ukrainians army tied up.
