Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Marley Rathbone]

Yep, occupying just the area with Russian speakers and leaving the west where the unironic nazis are concentrated to align with NATO. With luck the west will become a vacation destination for Redditors who want to help out the oppressed

They don't have much choice. They can't/won't occupy western Ukraine.

Israel did not occupy all of Syria, just the Golan heights, and they are still there after 55 years. Also, they didn't occupy Cairo, just took the Sinai peninsula because it is easier to manage. Same with south Lebanon, etc.

Turkey didn't invade all of Cyprus, just the Northern part, going on 50 years now. Same logic.

 

[Mr Processor]

They're already trying to cancel timeless works of Russian art and culture. Orchestras are refusing to perform Tchaikovsky.

I just ordered physical copies of all three volumes of The Gulag Archepelago, before they get thrown in the furnace.

None of this international a-logging is even going to remotely harm Putin or his lackeys.

I really need to read Blowback by Chalmers Johnson. I've already read his Sorrows of Empire.

 

[Toothpaste]

Looking at the related map of Russian advancement over the Ukraine, here is my armchair/chicken tendies/basement analysis of the event:

Russia's plan was never to occupy Ukraine, but to complete the liberation of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, form a land corridor all along the coast of the Azov sea to Crimea, and to secure Kherson so that Crimea's water supply would never be cut off or reduced.
That is their territorial objective, and the only one that matters.

Their secondary objectives in the North is mostly a feint to tie down the Ukrainian army.

The 40 mile convoy north of Kiev is only meant to keep Ukrainian defenses tied up in the North while the Russians complete their objectives in the South.

Putin doesn't have any intention of assaulting or occupying any other cities that do not have an overwhelmingly massive number of Russian speakers. That would be expensive and he has little or nothing to gain, especially in the propaganda war. Securing the south, the coast of the Sea of Azov and water for Crimea is all they need, because that leaves little for Ukraine other than Odessa, which the Russian fleet at Sevastopol can blockade with ease since Ukraine no longer has a navy.

In Putin's mind, taking out Zelensky or the Ukrainian government would be nice, but unnecessary. It would be an added bonus, but it is not an objective. Putin prefers having Zelensky in position because the latter doesn't understand military matters, geopolitics, security, intelligence, economics, etc. He's like their version of Joe Biden except he was just a comedian and doesn't have widespread support among his own people, despite the massive glowie campaign to make it appears as though he is loved and revered.

Since Russia's territorial demands are almost complete, they will start to reduce ground forces but beef up air defense units in their new areas.

If they do keep token land forces in the North, those will be the same conscript/low value military who are only there for show and to keep NATO and the Ukrainians army tied up.

View attachment 3063435

The issue is that unless Russia takes over the Ukrainian government, they can't fulfil their geopolitical goals. Russia has always felt that they need a protective sphere of influence in the west to prevent an attack on Mother Russia herself. Simply taking over Donbas does not solve that need.

If this war ends like the Winter War, with Russia technically winning but gaining only comparatively small territorial concessions, the end result will be that Ukraine will rearm itself in a massive manner, treaties or not, and there will almost inevitably be another war in the near future. This time, one that NATO could very likely be pulled into. At the very least this will end up in a frozen conflict, like that between the Koreas, with Nato troops literally watching over the Ukraine-Donbas border. This is not beneficial to Russia.

I think Russia expected Ukraine to fall in a few days. They saw that Ukraine had not been able to mobilize and attempted to just drive to Kiev and other major cities to take them over. Essentially the same trick they did in Crimea but in a much larger scale. This did not work and they've been stuck trying to develop an alternative plan for over a week now. The convoy west of Kiev has recently driven off the road and started to position itself in a defensive posture. It doesn't look like Russians are going to be able to make any device moves in Western Ukraine for a while.

Eastern and Southern fronts have had more success, but even there the frontline has not moved much. The Russians have been stuck trying to take over the cities of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Mariupol. Mariupol could fall any day now, but Mykolaiv and Kharkiv could still hold for weeks. Once those are conquered, Zaporizhia, Dnipro and Odessa could hold for a month. Russia does not have the troops in the area for this kind of attritional warfare.

 

[Mr Processor]

It bothers me that during a global semiconductor shortage we're blowing up a fuckton of them.

I've been buying SBCs like they are going out of style.

 

[Marley Rathbone]

The issue is that unless Russia takes over the Ukrainian government, they can't fulfil their geopolitical goals. Russia has always felt that they need a protective sphere of influence in the west to prevent an attack on Mother Russia herself. Simply taking over Donbas does not solve that need.

If this war ends like the Winter War, with Russia technically winning but gaining only comparatively small territorial concessions, the end result will be that Ukraine will rearm itself in a massive manner, treaties or not, and there will almost inevitably be another war in the near future. This time, one that NATO could very likely be pulled into. At the very least this will end up in a frozen conflict, like that between the Koreas, with Nato troops literally watching over the Ukraine-Donbas border. This is not beneficial to Russia.

I think Russia expected Ukraine to fall in a few days. They saw that Ukraine had not been able to mobilize and attempted to just drive to Kiev and other major cities to take them over. Essentially the same trick they did in Crimea but in a much larger scale. This did not work and they've been stuck trying to develop an alternative plan for over a week now. The convoy west of Kiev has recently driven off the road and started to position itself in a defensive posture. It doesn't look like Russians are going to be able to make any device moves in Western Ukraine for a while.

Eastern and Southern fronts have had more success, but even there the frontline has not moved much. The Russians have been stuck trying to take over the cities of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Mariupol. Mariupol could fall any day now, but Mykolaiva and Kharkiv could still hold for weeks. Once those are conquered, Dnipro and Odesa could hold for a month. Russia does not have the troops in the area for this kind of attritional warfare.


View attachment 3063511

Russia has defacto control over all of Ukraine's seaports and airspace, and can shut down resupply to the Ukraine army as much as they want.

Their objectives are met. They don't need to control all the land, but as long as they have air superiority on a long term basis, Ukraine will not have a military.

 

[Narcotics]

And about the nuclear nukes thing, here's a take i read a while ago about why it's not that probable that russia is the first one to launch nukes, it reads with a little of hopium so read at your own.

Spoiler: sperg

Even if Putin did go insane to the extent of not able to reason clearly - so out of it that he'd walk out of a top story window thinking he could fly - the generals would refuse.
Putin would have to tell a general. The general then needs to tell the launch crew which consists of three people regularly tested with psych evaluations with physical keys inserted simultaneously in different places so that one of them can’t launch it by stealing keys from the other two
Then the command centers can also stop the launch

“I was also exposed to their command centers, from the national level command center down to the command center in a road-mobile missile, and also a rail-mobile missile, and at all levels saw the individuals on duty, talked to them, asked them questions. Every question I asked was answered in depth, and the thing that struck me about going into their command centers, command-and-control centers, is that they are very much geared to a fail-safe mode. And what I mean by that is that any one of the command centers, from the national level down to the unit level, can inhibit the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile.”

Take of Andrei Kozyrev, Former Russian Federation Foreign minister under Yeltsin:

So, in my opinion, he is rational. Given that he is rational, I strongly believe he will not intentionally use nuclear weapons against the West. I say intentionally because indiscriminate shelling near a nuclear power plant can cause an unintentional nuclear disaster in Ukraine.
I will take it a step further. The threat of nuclear war is another example of his rationality. The Kremlin knows it can try to extract concessions, whether from Ukraine or the West, by saber-rattling its last remaining card in the deck: nuclear weapons.

 

[Wy4M]

Well, if the rumor that Putin is ill (or even dying) is true, maybe he decided to take the whole world with him if he couldn't get what he wants

Putin is ill and dying since 1999. Just as Assad and Trump are ill and dying and losing their mind since at least 2011 and 2016.
Edit: Except Biden, he's doing fine.

 

[Mr Processor]

Looking at the related map of Russian advancement over the Ukraine, here is my armchair/chicken tendies/basement analysis of the event:

Russia's plan was never to occupy Ukraine, but to complete the liberation of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, form a land corridor all along the coast of the Azov sea to Crimea, and to secure Kherson so that Crimea's water supply would never be cut off or reduced.
That is their territorial objective, and the only one that matters.

Their secondary objectives in the North is mostly a feint to tie down the Ukrainian army.

The 40 mile convoy north of Kiev is only meant to keep Ukrainian defenses tied up in the North while the Russians complete their objectives in the South.

Putin doesn't have any intention of assaulting or occupying any other cities that do not have an overwhelmingly massive number of Russian speakers. That would be expensive and he has little or nothing to gain, especially in the propaganda war. Securing the south, the coast of the Sea of Azov and water for Crimea is all they need, because that leaves little for Ukraine other than Odessa, which the Russian fleet at Sevastopol can blockade with ease since Ukraine no longer has a navy.

In Putin's mind, taking out Zelensky or the Ukrainian government would be nice, but unnecessary. It would be an added bonus, but it is not an objective. Putin prefers having Zelensky in position because the latter doesn't understand military matters, geopolitics, security, intelligence, economics, etc. He's like their version of Joe Biden except he was just a comedian and doesn't have widespread support among his own people, despite the massive glowie campaign to make it appears as though he is loved and revered.

Since Russia's territorial demands are almost complete, they will start to reduce ground forces but beef up air defense units in their new areas.

If they do keep token land forces in the North, those will be the same conscript/low value military who are only there for show and to keep NATO and the Ukrainians army tied up.

View attachment 3063435

This also allows the US to pretend that we won... I mean Ukraine won... because Russia only takes part of Ukraine. They were so frightened of Zelinsky + Biden/Kamala they just couldn't win!

 

[Toothpaste]

Russia has defacto control over all of Ukraine's seaports and airspace, and can shut down resupply to the Ukraine army as much as they want.

Their objectives are met. They don't need to control all the land, but as long as they have air superiority on a long term basis, Ukraine will not have a military.

They will not have a military for as long as Russia decides to occupy that territory. Russia does not want to be an occupying force.

The moment the Ruskies go home, the locals will start rearming with the full support of the West. It is impossible to demilitarize and "denazify" Ukraine at this point without military occupation.

If they do go home taking the Donbass with them, in five years they will be bordering a revanchist Ukraine with Abrams tanks, F-35 jets and NATO troops. That could easily lead to a crisis much worse than this one.

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

The future of modern warfare unveiled...
View attachment 3063455

That is bullshit.

All those Cameras would be made in China not the USA. When was the last time USA made anything for ourselves?

 

[Marley Rathbone]

They will not have a military for as long as Russia decides to occupy that territory. Russia does not want to be an occupying force.

The moment the Ruskies go home, the locals will start rearming with the full support of the West. It is impossible to demilitarize and "denazify" Ukraine at this point without military occupation.

If they do go home taking the Donbass with them, in five years they will be bordering a revanchist Ukraine with Abrams tanks, F-35 jets and NATO troops. That could easily lead to a crisis much worse than this one.

How will they get those tanks, F-35 jets and NATO troops if they don't control their own airspace, seaports and border crossings?

 

[RussianBlonde]

Some of my US friends have been sharing this video on their boomersbook. I want to scream. And the fucking comments under this video.

 

[Lord of the Large Pants]

And about the nuclear nukes thing, here's a take i read a while ago about why it's not that probable that russia is the first one to launch nukes, it reads with a little of hopium so read at your own.

Spoiler: sperg

Even if Putin did go insane to the extent of not able to reason clearly - so out of it that he'd walk out of a top story window thinking he could fly - the generals would refuse.
Putin would have to tell a general. The general then needs to tell the launch crew which consists of three people regularly tested with psych evaluations with physical keys inserted simultaneously in different places so that one of them can’t launch it by stealing keys from the other two
Then the command centers can also stop the launch


Take of Andrei Kozyrev, Former Russian Federation Foreign minister under Yeltsin:

The thing that worries me is that he only has to get lucky once. I suspect a large percentage of Russians would refuse to launch... but so what? If even one nuke goes off, it's massive retaliation and the end of all things.

 

[Corpun]

Also, Russians are already thinking of nicknames for them. Mickey Mice (Микимаусам) has been suggested. We'll see if something clever sticks

Jesus that smug soy grin. We aren't sending our best are we?

They like to tag each other in pictures + also go through the people who like their selfies.
Believe me. within a week you're able to identify at least 5 of them, you know who they are married with/name of their gf and there is a big chance you have pics of their kids, parents, sister, brothers, the house they live...

Pro-tips for any kiwi who wants to become a 'contractor':
- It's ok to post selfies to show the world what a badass motherfucker you are:
View attachment 3063203 View attachment 3063204

- But don't post the faces of the rest of your 'friends' unless they agree with it (I did the work for him)
View attachment 3063208

- And make sure you delete those embarrassing pics:

Am I the only one who thinks these people volunteer for clout chasing? It would explain why so many are retarded LARPers.

UN Security Council starts at 11am EST to discuss Russia's claims of US-Funded Bio-warfare labs in Ukraine btw

Here

Fingers crossed China says shit about WuFlu.

 

[Wy4M]

Apparently this is a classic from the Donbass war but it's the first time I see it so if somebody could enlighten me.

(it's important to have sound on)

 

[Meat Target]

Some of my US friends have been sharing this video on their boomersbook. I want to scream. And the fucking comments under this video.

That fat asshole is encouraging it.



It's no problem for him. You, and/or your sons, daughters, brothers, and sisters, will get sent into the meat grinder, while he sits at the Pentagon stuffing his face with donuts.

 

[Buck Breaker of BUcha]

The problem with most of these maps is that it draws WW2 style "lines" when they're entirely obsoleted forms of measurement. This one is "closer" to reality but I still don't like the vast coloring down by the Crimea. This war is almost certainly going to be dictated by the vast amount of insurgents that plague Russia over the course of months or years and its important to note that Russia doesn't really control every little village and town in the countryside, they just destroyed formal national military units but left a seething population in the rear of their advancing units. Everyone should be very careful when dealing with these maps because they tell a false story. Every major invasion in the 21st century by a national military has been overturned by insurgent forces, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 had the US fleeing by 2009 as casualties were causing serious dissension in the country alongside the economic implosion, Iraq got dropped like a sack of shit. Afghanistan also was overturned in under a week after the US finally capitulated and left. I see no reason why Ukraine wont follow the same format.

View attachment 3053862

There won't be any proper insurgency, the ukrainians only got two battalions of islamist militants with few hundred moderate al-Qaeda from northern Syria joining soon. Sure there are also far-right militants, but I just can't see it happening. Ukrainians aren't caucasian muslims or pashtuns.

 

[Safir]

Consoomer cancellation news:

Domino's Pizza stops "investments" but keeps its places open, unfortunately.
(Fast food franchises in Russia are a protection racket of sorts: joining a Western franchise is a way to ward off "consumer protection" harassment, because the franchise holder will fight to protect its reputation. In contrast, the owner of a Russian pizza franchise got sued for drug trafficking because one dealer got caught dealing in a franchisee place.)

According to """sources""", McDonald's says it'll be back in May.

Leroy Merlin (French home improvement chain) is expanding business, going for OBI (German home improvement chain)'s market share.

Norton and Avast are fucking off.

Nestle stops imports of Nespresso coffee capsules.

Russia blocks Instagram.

===

Japan voices its opposition to tax cuts in the Kuril islands. Hahahahahahahahaha what.
I relate to Japan; they had to rebuild their culture under capitalism after being humiliated in a war. But the Kuril question is laughable because the Japs cite a 1855 pact, despite having invaded Russia in 1918 under the pretext of helping the "legitimate" government (Semyonov) against the Reds. It's him they should send their complaints to (Antenora, 9th Circle, Hell).

 

[Cold Root Beer]

Some of my US friends have been sharing this video on their boomersbook. I want to scream. And the fucking comments under this video.

Do these retards think that if there was a way of directly fighting Russia without triggering nuclear exchange, we wouldn't have already done it in the cold war?

You can embargo, you can support forces in a proxy war, you cannot directly fight them. It's fucking magical thinking that they think there is some loophole where you go "um, actually Russia, we didn't declare war on you and shoot down your planes, we declared a no-fly zone. That means you aren't allowed to nuke us!".

These are fucking nuclear nations. At the height of the most hysteric anti-communist politics in the US, even they knew directly fucking with Russia would mean the end of the world.

It's all so fucking tiresome. My fellow westerners being like this almost makes me wish for a nuclear winter.

 

[The Foldless Brain]

That fat asshole is encouraging it.

View attachment 3063538

This fat waste of space is (((Ukrainian))). His obvious conflict of interest means he's willing to let any number of others die in nuclear hellfire for this non-country that he was almost an official of. Trump should've thrown him in the federal shark tank while he still had the chance.