Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%
  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%
  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%
  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%
  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%

  • Total voters
    2,360
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At first, I thought Russia would steamroll Kiev in a matter of a couple days or so, but it seems like they're getting bogged down. It's so difficult to tell exactly what the hell is going on over there, because both sides are lying and bolstering their respective causes with propaganda. All we know for certain is that the Russian encirclement and siege of key Ukrainian cities is continuing, however, Russia seem to be stalling unexpectedly. With the humanitarian corridors, they may be giving civilians a chance to evacuate, to avoid a bloodbath.
My suspicion, which has been reinforced by Russia recruiting fighters from Syria, is that part of Russia's problem is that they have no idea of how to actually capture cities. Their doctrine appears to be mostly capable of two things. 1) March into a town or city unopposed by any military force and take control. 2) Bombard a city until all military resistance or potential military resistance is dead or has fled, then march in and take control of the ruins.

Actual street by street fighting and building clearly doesn't seem to be something that they're prepared for. Thus why they keep stalling at major cities that offer resistance and moved to bomb and shell them. With Kiev in particular being a problem because they want to take it more or less intact as an administrative center that's had all its infrastructure and administrative records destroyed isn't going to be useful for a long time.

Thus Russia recruiting foreign fighters from Syria. They're hoping to get some people who have actual urban combat experience to help them take the cities without entirely reducing them to rubble. Either to show them what to do, or so that a bunch of non-Russians soak up most of the massive casualties that Russian officers expect urban fighting to generate.
 
At first, I thought Russia would steamroll Kiev in a matter of a couple days or so, but it seems like they're getting bogged down. It's so difficult to tell exactly what the hell is going on over there, because both sides are lying and bolstering their respective causes with propaganda. All we know for certain is that the Russian encirclement and siege of key Ukrainian cities is continuing, however, Russia seem to be stalling unexpectedly. With the humanitarian corridors, they may be giving civilians a chance to evacuate, to avoid a bloodbath.
The Russians aren't getting bogged down, they are holding back on purpose, they do not wage war in the same way as America does, they do not intend to reduce Ukraine to rubble. They are trying to put the Ukrainians into an untenable position to get them to come to the terms that they want. Most westerners don't understand it because our military strategy over here is "BOMB BOMB BOMB BOMB BOMB IRAN" while the Russians are fans of Clausewitz and believe "War is a mere continuation of politics by other means."
Also the only evidence people in the west use for the theory that they are bogged down is "They must be stalled by supply shortages because why else would they have not destroyed Kiev by now. There's no other explanation. " They never consider that the Russians have a different way of fighting wars.
 
I suspect they're seizing the yachts under the guise that they are property of the Russian State and this is part of the sanctions. Something about oligarchs are the ruling elites, the government of Russia, purchased with ill-gotten gains and all that crap.
This isn't strictly true. While there is legislation to basically just seize people's shit and sell it, what is happening now is that private jets and other extremely high-value assets they are often not owned by the individual but- usually for financial/legal purposes- by the company.
As there is an asset freeze of Russian company property in many countries, those toys are subject to those sanctions- while they aren't going to be sold or stripped for parts (yet), they're just going to sit where they are.
They are also often also registered in the country they are docked, as Russia... doesn't really have any nice places to do that. As a foreign entity registering your shit in another country, you fork over a lot of privileges that would normally be afforded to domestic entities.
(This is at least the case for most countries, in the U.S. the gubmint can just take your shit for even the vaguest reasons, lol)
While yeah, you can argue it's not particaurly fair, they certainly knew the risks. They basically weighed actually owning their shit versus nice waterfronts and tax write-offs. It's hard to feel bad for them.
 
Not sure, just wanted to share common opinions I'm hearing in NZ. It's like an alternate reality divorced from rational thought when I engage people in conversation about this. Putin is literally Hitler at this point here. I'm going to shoot myself if I hear democracy one more time. A friend of mine I was talking with just now said America should have bombed Russia as soon as they sent a tank across the border. Wtf.

For the record, I understand Putin's reasoning and I don't blame him for being pissed, I really feel for all of the civilians displaced from this, but ultimately Ukraine had a duty to be neutral.
This used to make me angry, now I find it sort of cute and sad at the same time. They really do believe in "democracy" (which is just a buzzword at this point). I really have to wonder how supportive people would be of Ukraine if they knew the country's dirty laundry.

I think the Russians really dropped the ball by not having effective western propaganda in place. If the level of corruption in Ukraine or its openly fascist military divisions were common knowledge, I think most people's opinion would be "Fuck Putin, but ehhh I don't really want to defend Ukraine either. I hope they can come to some sort of peace." There would be no "IF CAPTAIN AMERICA WAS FIGHTING THE RUSSIANS..." retardation either. I also think the sanctions would not be as stiff, especially from the EU and Euro countries. There would also be a lot less corporate virtue signaling as well; the Ruskies could have kept their Burger Towns.

Instead people are viewing this through a "Good vs Evil" lens, which is by design. Someone had a clip from an American news tabloid show "Inside Edition", which likened this war to a "David vs Goliath" struggle, when this is closer to being a Slavic 'Nam than anything else.

Funny to think Russia is the same country getting BTFO in the global information war was suppose to have had a propaganda and psy-op division so strong, it tricked Americans into electing an orange reality TV star.
 
Occupy is about two cunt hairs from officially posting "RT this image of ethical CP or your mom will die in her sleep tonight" schizo.
Remember, it's the conservatives who are supposed to be the racists and the conspiracy theorists. Nothing to see here, comrade. Move on.
So we've gotten cock teased by nuclear war, massive hacker attacks, dropping a fucking space station on our heads, and now bioweapon leaks. What's next? Is someone going to threaten to trigger Yellowstone?
What the hell are you doing citizen!? Turn off your brain before the Thought Police catch on to you!
They need to work on their fiction, this is Bond villain stuff.
At least Bond villains have style and class. These assclowns can't even write a proper Saturday morning cartoon villain.
 
I keep seeing posts around the internet about the seizure of yachts belonging to (rich therefore totes evol) Russian oligarchs and it makes part of my brain itch and toss up warnings about a lack of due process.
This was bugging me, then I realized non citizens are not owed due process. You SHOULD probably save this kind of thing for when you're actually at war though.
A bit of a bitch move to start seizing assets when you're nominally (but clearly not actually) neutral.
 
My suspicion, which has been reinforced by Russia recruiting fighters from Syria, is that part of Russia's problem is that they have no idea of how to actually capture cities. Their doctrine appears to be mostly capable of two things. 1) March into a town or city unopposed by any military force and take control. 2) Bombard a city until all military resistance or potential military resistance is dead or has fled, then march in and take control of the ruins.

Actual street by street fighting and building clearly doesn't seem to be something that they're prepared for. Thus why they keep stalling at major cities that offer resistance and moved to bomb and shell them. With Kiev in particular being a problem because they want to take it more or less intact as an administrative center that's had all its infrastructure and administrative records destroyed isn't going to be useful for a long time.

Thus Russia recruiting foreign fighters from Syria. They're hoping to get some people who have actual urban combat experience to help them take the cities without entirely reducing them to rubble. Either to show them what to do, or so that a bunch of non-Russians soak up most of the massive casualties that Russian officers expect urban fighting to generate.
I suspect that it's because the normal greenhorn Russians are having problems killing Ukrainians who aren't that different. Not enough Donbass vets to take the whole country. Chechens who are fine killing kufirs were poorly equipped and arrogant. Syrians have no qualms about killing whites because these whites are Putin's enemy. This wouldn't be the first time foreigners have been brought in to brutalize a population because regulars were too similar to the locals. Even in the American Revolution, Hessians were important for intimidating the colonists. Ottoman Empire made extensive use of non-Muslim mercenaries. In Vietnam, South Koreans who had lost family to North Korea were brought in to fight the VC. It's easier to kill people who don't look like you. Or bring in people who have been wronged by your enemy or people like them in an earlier conflict.
 
Russian EOD is decently competent, they gained a lot of experience in Syria and even issue real deal no shit Exoskeletons (that actually work because they are not powered)

To sperg about Russian Exoskeletons a bit, for whatever reason they are faring much better at developing them than us Americans are, they are also fucking cheap ($3500-4500 IIRC per unit).
Now lets hope the images do not fuck upView attachment 3065394View attachment 3065396View attachment 3065403
Ooo this is good news. Exokeletal suits is one of the few futuristic techs that has had me excited for a long time, especially if you don't need external power. But you never really hear about them.

They told me to get in the pod and eat the bugs, so I put on the suit and became the bug
 
My suspicion, which has been reinforced by Russia recruiting fighters from Syria, is that part of Russia's problem is that they have no idea of how to actually capture cities. Their doctrine appears to be mostly capable of two things. 1) March into a town or city unopposed by any military force and take control. 2) Bombard a city until all military resistance or potential military resistance is dead or has fled, then march in and take control of the ruins.

Actual street by street fighting and building clearly doesn't seem to be something that they're prepared for. Thus why they keep stalling at major cities that offer resistance and moved to bomb and shell them. With Kiev in particular being a problem because they want to take it more or less intact as an administrative center that's had all its infrastructure and administrative records destroyed isn't going to be useful for a long time.

Thus Russia recruiting foreign fighters from Syria. They're hoping to get some people who have actual urban combat experience to help them take the cities without entirely reducing them to rubble. Either to show them what to do, or so that a bunch of non-Russians soak up most of the massive casualties that Russian officers expect urban fighting to generate.
Russia has some experience of getting screwed over in urban combat in Chechnya. Russian armor would move in, and they simply could not elevate their guns high enough to hit Chechen rocket troops, who were firing from the rooftops of buildings. So the Russians specifically designed an armored vehicle called the BMPT Terminator with a high-elevation gun system that can elevate the autocannons 45 degrees.


Tank_support_combat_vehicle__Terminator_.jpg

I have not seen a single one of these in the footage from Ukraine. It's all old BMPs, BTRs, T-72s, et cetera. It's literally all 40-year-old Cold War hardware. Why is Putin holding the good stuff back?
:thinking:
 
So, instead of everyone in the convoy relying on that one vehicle with the sensors and its one crewman watching a screen (and hopefully not panicking or getting information overload and not even knowing what the hell they're looking at), they could all share data between each other.
Or completely falling to pieces when that one dude got shot in the head and half the shit in the vehicle is on fire.
 
As far as I can observe and no offence to your mother. Most people don't know anything about most things and have no critical thinking filter.

It seems that propaganda these days works simply as a story. They don't convince anyone of anything, they just tell them the narrative. Which is blindly accepted. A story, unlike facts or an argument to convince people. It doesn't need to make sense, it doesn't need to even be consistent from one point or the next. You're always in the current part of the story.

Nothing made this more clear than COVID. With how often the story and rules around everything would change and seemingly people never noticed that they were now following a different script. They were always right there on the same page. Never going, "wait a minute, this contradicts and doesn't make sense from what was on the previous page."
I guess so, lol. I can sit her down and show her all the evidence and she'll still exclaim how upset she is that she raised a putinbot. wow
 
Russia has some experience of getting screwed over in urban combat in Chechnya. Russian armor would move in, and they simply could not elevate their guns high enough to hit Chechen rocket troops, who were firing from the rooftops of buildings. So the Russians specifically designed an armored vehicle called the BMPT Terminator with a high-elevation gun system that can elevate the autocannons 45 degrees.


View attachment 3065563

I have not seen a single one of these in the footage from Ukraine. It's all old BMPs, BTRs, T-72s, et cetera. It's literally all 40-year-old Cold War hardware. Why is Putin holding the good stuff back?
:thinking:
Either hubris or seriously doesn't want to give NATO any combat data/potential wrecks.
 
Also, is calling them oligarchs, actually part of anti-Russian propaganda? Why not just billionaires

Oligarchy = Bad rich guys running things

Plutarchy = Good rich guys running things

I guess.

It's starting to remind me of how Burn Loot Murder was encouraged to loot. Why? Um...something something justice?
 
I have not seen a single one of these in the footage from Ukraine. It's all old BMPs, BTRs, T-72s, et cetera. It's literally all 40-year-old Cold War hardware. Why is Putin holding the good stuff back?
:thinking:
My theory still stands that this whole shitshow was started just to have an excuse of getting rid of old soviet gear and train new troops with it
"If you learn with the old, the new will be a piece of cake"
>sends thousands to die for shits and giggles in a 50 year old tin box
>wipes single tear off cheek

Just like papa Stalin woulda wanted
donating the scrap to the romani.png
 
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Ooo this is good news. Exokeletal suits is one of the few futuristic techs that has had me excited for a long time, especially if you don't need external power. But you never really hear about them.

They told me to get in the pod and eat the bugs, so I put on the suit and became the bug

They got fairly far technologically in the US, but without the magical tony stark core thing, we just can't store the kind of energy a suit would need in a battery that would also fit on the suit, this also killed BigDog, because a buzzing gas engine wasn't going to cut it.

Power armor is basically cucked for the same reason solar/wind power are, our ability to store electricity is pretty terrible, and the outlook for improvement is not great, Tesla will spend billions buying out entire companies just because they somehow, against all odds, made an incremental 10% improvement out of 1ithium-ion.

If we found some type of magic rock that could store shitloads of electricity, it would change alot about how we do things.
 
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Speaking of seizing assets, remember I mentioned about the Russian air industry last week? Well apparently the signs early this week point to the Russian government effectively nationalizing the foreign owned aircraft operated by Russian companies.
Here's a follow up video to the one I posted before:

Plus a couple news articles on the subject:
Business Insider (archive)
Airline Weekly (archive)

The short of it is that Russia's taken steps to enable quick re-registering of foreign registered craft in Russia, postponed some inspection requirements and made them easier to meet in Russia, and directed its airliners to not fly foreign registered aircraft abroad lest they be impounded or seized. This would also put Russia in violation of the Cape Town Treaty they ratified back in 2011. It'll also make any aircraft kept that way virtually worthless in the future as maintenance records would become unreliable, and it's a lot harder to sell someone an aircraft if they don't have decent assurances it's been properly maintained.

I suspect that it's because the normal greenhorn Russians are having problems killing Ukrainians who aren't that different. Not enough Donbass vets to take the whole country. Chechens who are fine killing kufirs were poorly equipped and arrogant. Syrians have no qualms about killing whites because these whites are Putin's enemy. This wouldn't be the first time foreigners have been brought in to brutalize a population because regulars were too similar to the locals. Even in the American Revolution, Hessians were important for intimidating the colonists. Ottoman Empire made extensive use of non-Muslim mercenaries. In Vietnam, South Koreans who had lost family to North Korea were brought in to fight the VC. It's easier to kill people who don't look like you. Or bring in people who have been wronged by your enemy or people like them in an earlier conflict.
Yeah, I considered morale problems as well. I suspect morale is already bad enough when you're sending a bunch of green troops - some of which are conscripts - to just conquer another country. Only to take some painful losses when you'd basically promised them it'd be a walkover and they'd be greeted as liberators from a corrupt regime. Sending them in to engage in bloody urban fighting against people who might clearly be civilians conscripted for defense or even just having taken up arms in defense of their home is probably a thorny issue. Either send units in to get slaughtered and morale drops to the points that troops start to mutiny, or send units in only to see them surrender because they were "surrounded".

Russia has some experience of getting screwed over in urban combat in Chechnya. Russian armor would move in, and they simply could not elevate their guns high enough to hit Chechen rocket troops, who were firing from the rooftops of buildings. So the Russians specifically designed an armored vehicle called the BMPT Terminator with a high-elevation gun system that can elevate the autocannons 45 degrees.


View attachment 3065563

I have not seen a single one of these in the footage from Ukraine. It's all old BMPs, BTRs, T-72s, et cetera. It's literally all 40-year-old Cold War hardware. Why is Putin holding the good stuff back?
:thinking:
Do they even have enough of the good stuff in inventory? Most of their post Soviet stuff seems to have been produced it relatively small quantities. With even that article making it sound like Russia has maybe a couple dozen in service. Given the amount of problems and corruption Russia seems to have had with its military procurement and training, I wouldn't be surprised if their more modern equipment is little more than theoretical. Working models that prove the concept, but no pressures for large production runs and replacement of obsolete vehicles and equipment. It'd be easy enough to argue that most of their existing stuff was "good enough" for their purposes, and if something got serious enough to warrant building large quantities of modern equipment, either there'd be enough time to ramp up production, or it'd be a nuclear war and more modern equipment would be moot.
 
Oligarchy = Bad rich guys running things

Plutarchy = Good rich guys running things

I guess.

It's starting to remind me of how Burn Loot Murder was encouraged to loot. Why? Um...something something justice?
Fucking kidding me? America's been an oligarchy by that definition for many years if there's any truth to that.
 
Do they even have enough of the good stuff in inventory? Most of their post Soviet stuff seems to have been produced it relatively small quantities. With even that article making it sound like Russia has maybe a couple dozen in service. Given the amount of problems and corruption Russia seems to have had with its military procurement and training, I wouldn't be surprised if their more modern equipment is little more than theoretical. Working models that prove the concept, but no pressures for large production runs and replacement of obsolete vehicles and equipment. It'd be easy enough to argue that most of their existing stuff was "good enough" for their purposes, and if something got serious enough to warrant building large quantities of modern equipment, either there'd be enough time to ramp up production, or it'd be a nuclear war and more modern equipment would be moot.
This is what some people thought as well. We don't exactly know how much they have produced the Post-Soviet toys, and how much of it are in battle-ready condition. Remind me again, are any of those new and expensive toys have been exported to another country? That's a good indicator of how many they have the "good stuff" in store
 
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