How the fuck are people not getting this. No fly zone = escalation to the point of nuclear war.
If you allow Ukrainians to exist in the West then it allows for easy pipelines between NATO countries and Ukraine. Right now there's a lot of drama because Russia bombed the fuck out of the bases closest to Poland so it'd heavily disrupt the pipeline of supplies between Poland and Ukraine, and between Western Ukraine and Kiev.
Now if Poland wants to drive supplies into Ukraine they have to drive it deeper into Ukraine, making the supply trucks an easy target to get vacuum bombed to pieces. I'm going to wager that very soon Poland might quietly cut off supplies and with no supplies you have an internal crisis in Ukraine.
NATO is doing great at cosplaying Britain and France in 1939. No-fly zone in Western Ukraine is literally free and very easy to implement (no need to destroy Russian SAMs). NATO planes are in the air 24/7, why not use them for something meaningful?
MUH NUCLEAR WAR argument is BS. US can send Ohios in Mediterranean and Trident II flight time to European Russia and Urals would be 5-6 minutes. Most of Russian nukes are there in silos, on the ground in more or less pre-determined areas or on RPKSNs parked in Barenz Sea bases (it's too expensive and dangerous to keep them at sea and they can't get anywhere close to US coast anyway). Bases of strategic bombers are also known. If the US strikes first, it can destroy 90% of all Russian nuclear forces before they can retaliate, and then there is anti-ICBM defences to deal with what's left. US will spend 100-150 Tridents on this (5-6 out of 14 SSBN Ohios) and will keep enough ICBMs to further deter China. No large cities/civilian infrastructure will be targeted which will reduce collateral damage.
Dreaded "Perimeter" system is a bluff created precisely because no chain of command can react in 5-6 minutes. It's important to make the opposing side believe that your ICBMs will launch automatically, when in fact there is always a human pressing the button. The best argument of it not existing is that numerous early warning system activations have never led to nuclear missiles being launched, human intervention has always prevented it. And because the whole scenario of nuclear war is so unexpected, the reaction time would be longer (ensuring attacker's success).
Either NATO deals with Putin here and now, or it would have to deal with him later when Russia is recovered, decoupled from EU, allied with China and the West is even more dead and gay than now.
the longer this shit goes on, the less likely it seems NATO actually will get involved with a no-fly zone tbh, barring russians literally doing something against a NATO member (deliberately or accidentally, either would suffice probably).
the Hotel Rwanda quote deffo applies as to why not: "we think you're dirt, ukies! you're not even black, your slavs!" and if their opening move has been sanction russia into oblivion, but stop there...barring any new developments on the ground, that's likely where it'll stay. especially right now, when the west has apparently convinced itself that just funneling its redditor volunteers + arms shipments all through Poland to prolong the fighting will suffice to bog russia down.
NATO is doing great at cosplaying Britain and France in 1939. No-fly zone in Western Ukraine is literally free and very easy to implement (no need to destroy Russian SAMs). NATO planes are in the air 24/7, why not use them for something meaningful?
MUH NUCLEAR WAR argument is BS. US can send Ohios in Mediterranean and Trident II flight time to European Russia and Urals would be 5-6 minutes. Most of Russian nukes are there in silos, on the ground in more or less pre-determined areas or on RPKSNs parked in Barenz Sea bases (it's too expensive and dangerous to keep them at sea and they can't get anywhere close to US coast anyway). Bases of strategic bombers are also known. If the US strikes first, it can destroy 90% of all Russian nuclear forces before they can retaliate, and then there is anti-ICBM defences to deal with what's left. US will spend 100-150 Tridents on this (5-6 out of 14 SSBN Ohios) and will keep enough ICBMs to further deter China. No large cities/civilian infrastructure will be targeted which will reduce collateral damage.
Dreaded "Perimeter" system is a bluff created precisely because no chain of command can react in 5-6 minutes. It's important to make the opposing side believe that your ICBMs will launch automatically, when in fact there is always a human pressing the button. The best argument of it not existing is that numerous early warning system activations have never led to nuclear missiles being launched, human intervention has always prevented it. And because the whole scenario of nuclear war is so unexpected, the reaction time would be longer (ensuring attacker's success).
Either NATO deals with Putin here and now, or it would have to deal with him later when Russia is recovered, decoupled from EU, allied with China and the West is even more dead and gay than now.
"Most of Russian nukes are there in silos, on the ground in more or less pre-determined areas"
"RPKSNs parked in Barentz sea bases (it's too expensive and dangerous to keep them at sea and they can't get anywhere close to US coast anyway)"
"Bases of strategic bombers are also known"
these are all baseless assumptions. nobody can assert with confidence that all russian nuke silo locations, nuke sub routes and strat bomber air bases are known and accounted for.
claiming that america could first strike russia so effectively that retaliation would be impossible is insane, and claiming that american countermeasures will reliably protect against retaliation is just wishful thinking.
What the hell else can they do? Put them on double secret probation? Russia's already basically completely isolated economically, the leverage is already used up.
Edit: just a little note, but the West's extra "freedoms" essentially amount to the state repressing organic communal violence against criminals/miscreants/deviants/racial others. It's literally the perfect example of expanding the state in order to guarantee individual security lol.
That is true of the "freedoms" that have been promoted since the 60s by the usual suspects, but there are far more important ones like property rights that distinguished the West for centuries. Having the assurance that what you work for won't get randomly stolen by some corrupt official or an angry mob that someone whipped up against you makes independent low-time preference behaviour possible. Of course those things are being eroded now but what do you expect from an elite that openly hates their own civilisation?
Although for an Uncle Ted fan, this is probably a bad thing because independent low time preference behaviour is what caused the industrial revolution.
I remember a pajeet anon on 4chan once said he was confused by the term "vidya" when he first encountered it, since Vidya is also the name of a Hindu deity.
NATO is doing great at cosplaying Britain and France in 1939. No-fly zone in Western Ukraine is literally free and very easy to implement (no need to destroy Russian SAMs). NATO planes are in the air 24/7, why not use them for something meaningful?
MUH NUCLEAR WAR argument is BS. US can send Ohios in Mediterranean and Trident II flight time to European Russia and Urals would be 5-6 minutes. Most of Russian nukes are there in silos, on the ground in more or less pre-determined areas or on RPKSNs parked in Barenz Sea bases (it's too expensive and dangerous to keep them at sea and they can't get anywhere close to US coast anyway). Bases of strategic bombers are also known. If the US strikes first, it can destroy 90% of all Russian nuclear forces before they can retaliate, and then there is anti-ICBM defences to deal with what's left. US will spend 100-150 Tridents on this (5-6 out of 14 SSBN Ohios) and will keep enough ICBMs to further deter China. No large cities/civilian infrastructure will be targeted which will reduce collateral damage.
Dreaded "Perimeter" system is a bluff created precisely because no chain of command can react in 5-6 minutes. It's important to make the opposing side believe that your ICBMs will launch automatically, when in fact there is always a human pressing the button. The best argument of it not existing is that numerous early warning system activations have never led to nuclear missiles being launched, human decision has always prevented it. And because the whole scenario of nuclear war is so unexpected, the reaction time would be longer (ensuring attacker's success).
Either NATO deals with Putin here and now, or it would have to deal with him later when Russia is recovered, decoupled from EU, allied with China and the West is even more dead and gay than now.
NATO is doing great at cosplaying Britain and France in 1939. No-fly zone in Western Ukraine is literally free and very easy to implement (no need to destroy Russian SAMs). NATO planes are in the air 24/7, why not use them for something meaningful?
MUH NUCLEAR WAR argument is BS. US can send Ohios in Mediterranean and Trident II flight time to European Russia and Urals would be 5-6 minutes. Most of Russian nukes are there in silos, on the ground in more or less pre-determined areas or on RPKSNs parked in Barenz Sea bases (it's too expensive and dangerous to keep them at sea and they can't get anywhere close to US coast anyway). Bases of strategic bombers are also known. If the US strikes first, it can destroy 90% of all Russian nuclear forces before they can retaliate, and then there is anti-ICBM defences to deal with what's left. US will spend 100-150 Tridents on this (5-6 out of 14 SSBN Ohios) and will keep enough ICBMs to further deter China. No large cities/civilian infrastructure will be targeted which will reduce collateral damage.
Dreaded "Perimeter" system is a bluff created precisely because no chain of command can react in 5-6 minutes. It's important to make the opposing side believe that your ICBMs will launch automatically, when in fact there is always a human pressing the button. The best argument of it not existing is that numerous early warning system activations have never led to nuclear missiles being launched, human decision has always prevented it. And because the whole scenario of nuclear war is so unexpected, the reaction time would be longer (ensuring attacker's success).
Either NATO deals with Putin here and now, or it would have to deal with him later when Russia is recovered, decoupled from EU, allied with China and the West is even more dead and gay than now.
Bulk ammo moves faster than you think. I worked in a gun store as a younger man and you could move two pallets (1 pallet=25 cases of 1,000 rounds) every couple days if there was an ammo rush. Otherwise you're selling about a pallet a week. This was in a deep blue area where gun ownership isn't as common as other places in America. It wouldn't surprise me if we were importing millions of rounds per month just to cover the civilian market.
I get the feeling that they want Americans to think that Russia won't stop at Ukraine. We're pumping troops into Poland, but not to prepare to bail Ukraine out. They're there so we can pretend that Putler's tanks are going to keep rolling west after Kiev falls.
