War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

Status
Not open for further replies.
President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

Article
 
We should probably just subtitle this thread "And then things got worse..." since things just keep getting worse and worse for Russia.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1505260472492347395?
Looks like a bunch of Belarussians pissed off at how Russia's treating their country took matters into their own hands.
Good God. The Russians really fucked up when Belarissa doesn't even want to help anymore.
It should also be noted that India is friendly with Russia but not China, so "uniting together" is a bit misleading. The Indians have always had friendly relations with Russia since the USSR days but if any conflict required them to choose between Russia and America they'd go with the Americans since they're the only ones that could defend against the Chinese encroaching on their border. Who they hate with a passion, almost as much as Pakistan. Their ties to the US got closer under Trump, and they even want to be part of a "Pacific Nato" with Japan and Australia to counter China. So I wouldn't buy the idea that this is the beginning of some Eurasian alliance, but India trying to play off both sides to get what benefits them.
Honselty India became very friendly with Trump after he became more stricter with China. It make since.
 

Interesting, and I believe accurate, take on the current status of the war.

Russia's initial campaign has failed in it's objectives. They are getting bogged down and this is likely to result in something of a stalemate.

In my opinion, a stalemate is a losing position for Russia. Besides raiding their backlines, Militia - and likely most of their reservists - are primarily going to be used defensively. If this becomes a stalemate, Ukraine is going to be able to take a lot of these volunteers and train them up to a professional standard in the West of Ukraine which is unthreatened and very large. Plus, from what can be seen the ability of Ukraine to supply and keep supplied it's cities and soldiers is better than Russia. Partly due to them having much shorter lines of supply, none of which runs through hostile country filled with RPGs, AK47s and angry people.

Further to this, while the Russia "strategy" of bombarding a city into surrender works if you amass all your forces against the likes of Grozny, it is not something they are going to be capable of doing across all of Ukraine with sufficient strength to induce a surrender. Maruipol is an example of this, despite being isolated for nearly 3 weeks, despite being outnumbered and bombed into the ground they are continuing to resist. Yes, they are going to fall eventually - but those Russia soldiers have been successfully tied down, exhausted and sustained significant losses. They are not going to be much use on the offensive here after.

There have also been reports that Russia soldiers are engaging in self-mutilation to avoid being sent in to fight, as well as severe shortages of basically everything for Russian troops at the front. Is this really an army that is going to be able to engage in grinding attritional warfare, against a highly motivated Ukrainian military with the full backing of the civilian population, effectively?

They invaded with some 200k soldiers. The fatality figures are between 7-14k, at this point I would not be surprised if the Ukrainian figures were somewhat close to the truth - but we will never know. Take into account fatality-casualty ratios, you can add at the very minimum another 2 times the number of deaths, probably 3 or more though, as casualties. So what, they could be short 30-60k of their original invasion force. Added to this, most of the losses would be sustained by their combat arms, their infantry, paratroopers, marines as they would have been in the thick of it. Even if Russia do want to reinforce them, they have already committed 75% of their high readiness units. Throwing in more with the fucked up logistics would probably achieve little, throwing in their lower quality soldiers would achieve only their deaths.


Also, cool video of Azov IFV taking on a tank and a Russian IFV up close and fucking them with it's 30mm.


Also, take in to account that Mariupol is quite small city(in global scale), having only 400k residents. If your army is really struggling to conquer that despite having bombed it for days on end, things aren't going that well for you.
 
Also, take in to account that Mariupol is quite small city(in global scale), having only 400k residents. If your army is really struggling to conquer that despite having bombed it for days on end, things aren't going that well for you.
It's a fair point, the Russian playbook for taking a town is not just costly for the defenders and the civilians, it's costly to them. Trying to do this city by city in Ukraine isn't going to work, they will run out of men first.

Plus, Mariupol is fairly isolated so there is no hope for a counter attack or support - that certainly wouldn't be the case for many of the other cities.
 
klaus.png
 
1647784627367.png

Comrade Putin, I don't feel so good...

Honestly, the aerial losses are probably the single worst part. Tanks and artillery are relatively cheap and easy to build and train crews on. Planes and helicopters, however? 96 planes is 8 squadrons worth. That's a lot. For comparison, that's the flight complement of a Nimitz-class supercarrier that is now flaming wreckage on Ukrainian soil.

For comparison with Operation Iraqi Freedom for those "Muh 3 weeks" guys that seem to have disappeared:
1647785157128.png

We're looking at more than one hundred times the losses the US and Brits had, against a far weaker foe than the Iraqi military.
 
Last edited:
Good God. The Russians really fucked up when Belarissa doesn't even want to help anymore.
Only Lukashenko and his cuck army like Putin, common Belarusians are very opposed to war. Don't forget Putin helped Lukashenko to keep his place as a president, despite him breaking the law by this dick move. I'm surprised something like this didn't happen sooner.
 
Last edited:
For all its flaws, the Russia of the Tsarist days was genuinely strong. It defeated the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth back when they were still a superpower, it became a contemporary of other great powers like Austria, Prussia, France, Spain, and Great Britain, and its support was practically the only reason why Britain and France didn't immediately collapse fighting Germany in WW1.

I respectfully disagree, I'd say that Tsarist Russia was a whole lot like Russia is today, rife with epic corruption, small elite living abroad, large armies made from conscripts and strong brainwashing with religion and imperial idea.

Corruption was so insane that it's hard to even figure out how things worked and who paid whom. Anyone who wants to figure out how Alaska deal was struck, that was super-shady deal with many dark areas not known to this day. When Russians licensed to make Maxim guns, it cost 4x what it did to make them in EU, despite semi-slave labor. Insanity of rejecting anything modern in favour of cheaper, low cost, mass produced arms is spelled out in universally known Levsha fictional story, a fictional brilliant inventor tasked with making bullshit toys to amuse the elites. At the end dude goes insane warning that cleaning rifles with crushed brick ruins the barrels.

Serfdom provided a lot of soldiers, landlords were required to sent x number into army, term of service was 25 years, practically life. In WWI, Russia mobilized over 15 million soldiers ... far greater than any other army and lost far more than any other army as well. Slave conscription + religious fanaticism ("the love of dying for someone is the greatest love" - this is exactly what Putin quoted in his latest speech and many speeches before, but it does not include him) always been the two strongest pillars of Russian military.

The fractured society of super rich socialites, who lived in France and UK, come to their plantations for the summer, some could not even speak Russian ... this is exactly what's happening now. Even in latest Tsarist Russia, middle class was absolutely dismal, meanwhile in EU and US that was the engine that drove people, economic opportunity. In today's Russia, unless you are elite, if you have a brain, you leave Russia and work elsewhere. What remains is 90% dumb peasants, mostly illiterate or in today's terms, something like 5% of Russians read diverse opinions from multiple sources other than idiot box and can use VPN.


I'm not trying justify commies, in fact I'd rather see in 1991 that all of them were French revolutioned ... but Soviets did manage far stronger and more modern institution that Tsarist Russia was and Putin's Russia is, mostly thanks to keeping everyone North Korea poor and funneling all the money to military instead of oligarch pockets.

And this is one fear that I have about China. I hope Russia is not used to compare to China (it being a paper tiger). At the end of the day, massive army of dumb conscripts is still steamrolling and Ukraine bleeds hard. I think that they will win, but ultimate economic and human cost is going to be horrific.
 
Last edited:
I respectfully disagree, I'd say that Tsarist Russia was a whole lot like Russia is today, rife with epic corruption, small elite living abroad, large armies made from conscripts and strong brainwashing with religion and imperial idea.

Corruption was so insane that it's hard to even figure out how things worked and who paid whom. Anyone who wants to figure out how Alaska deal was struck, that was super-shady deal with many dark areas not known to this day. When Russians licensed to make Maxim guns, it cost 4x what it did to make them in EU, despite semi-slave labor. Insanity of rejecting anything modern in favour of cheaper, low cost, mass produced arms is spelled out in universally known Levsha fictional story, a fictional brilliant inventor tasked with making bullshit toys to amuse the elites. At the end dude goes insane warning that cleaning rifles with crushed brick ruins the barrels.

Serfdom provided a lot of soldiers, landlords were required to sent x number into army, term of service was 25 years, practically life. In WWI, Russia mobilized over 15 million soldiers ... far greater than any other army and lost far more than any other army as well. Slave conscription + religious fanaticism ("the love of dying for someone is the greatest love" - this is exactly what Putin quoted in his latest speech and many speeches before, but it does not include him) always been the two strongest pillars of Russian military.

The fractured society of super rich socialites, who lived in France and UK, come to their plantations for the summer, some could not even speak Russian ... this is exactly what's happening now. Even in latest Tsarist Russia, middle class was absolutely dismal, meanwhile in EU and US that was the engine that drove people, economic opportunity. In today's Russia, unless you are elite, if you have a brain, you leave Russia and work elsewhere. What remains is 90% dumb peasants, mostly illiterate or in today's terms, something like 5% of Russians read diverse opinions from multiple sources other than idiot box and can use VPN.

I'm not trying justify commies, in fact I'd rather see in 1991 that all of them were French revolutioned ... but Soviets did manage far stronger and more modern institution that Tsarist Russia was and Putin's Russia is, mostly thanks to keeping everyone North Korea poor and funneling all the money to military instead of oligarch pockets.

And this is one fear that I have about China. I hope Russia is not used to compare to China (it being a paper tiger). At the end of the day, massive army of dumb conscripts is still steamrolling and Ukraine bleeds hard. I think that they will win, but ultimate economic and human cost is going to be horrific.
Fair enough, but the Soviets just made the problem worse by A) isolating itself from the West even more, B) spending so much of Russia's wealth and resources to "fight" against the west, and C) self-made genocides like the Holodomor that no Czar can top. At the very least, under the Czars, the Russians were a part of western civilization and even engaged with alliances with the top western powers and cooperated with them on many fronts. The USSR and Putin's Russia seem to despise the West for their Cold War feuds.

I suppose this is what happens when you have a nation that just runs on bayonet rule and little else.
 
View attachment 3089926
Comrade Putin, I don't feel so good...

Honestly, the aerial losses are probably the single worst part. Tanks and artillery are relatively cheap and easy to build and train crews on. Planes and helicopters, however? 96 planes is 8 squadrons worth. That's a lot. For comparison, that's the flight complement of a Nimitz-class supercarrier that is now flaming wreckage on Ukrainian soil.

For comparison with Operation Iraqi Freedom for those "Muh 3 weeks" guys that seem to have disappeared:
View attachment 3089942
We're looking at more than one hundred times the losses the US and Brits had, against a far weaker foe than the Iraqi military.
I wouldn't believe the Ukrainian number. I put it somewhere around half of it, so around 7000 KIA, close to the recent American estimate. Total casualties would be around 2-4 times of that, still not exactly a good look for the Russian
 
I wouldn't believe the Ukrainian number. I put it somewhere around half of it, so around 7000 KIA, close to the recent American estimate. Total casualties would be around 2-4 times of that, still not exactly a good look for the Russian
I can buy the figures. Especially considering that Russia is sending in conscripts, not well-trained volunteers, into Vietnam-esque conditions that made many American soldiers break. Even the Soviets at the height of their power lost in Afghanistan, and this is even worse.
 
The Russians really fucked up when Belarissa doesn't even want to help anymore.
The only reason Luka is still in power is because of Putin's support. The moment that goes away he'll be strung up from a street lamp. Lukaschenko is desperately trying to appease his daddy, while also keeping Belarus as far away from this war as possible - unfortunately for him standing on two chairs is often conductive to a pratfall.
 
I can buy the figures. Especially considering that Russia is sending in conscripts, not well-trained volunteers, into Vietnam-esque conditions that made many American soldiers break. Even the Soviets at the height of their power lost in Afghanistan, and this is even worse.
Too wishful thinking. This is 2022, medical tech and knowledge have advanced quite enough to make death rate lower than previous wars in history. This is even more true when since both combatants are European countries with modern infrastructure and techs, and not some backwater shithole countries
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
Too wishful thinking. This is 2022, medical tech and knowledge have advanced quite enough to make death rate lower than previous wars in history. This is even more true when since both combatants are European countries with modern infrastructure and techs, and not some backwater shithole countries
But Russia IS a backwater shithole country 90% of the time. Only the oligarchs and the special forces have the fancy toys and can compete with the west pound-for-pound, everyone else lives in a status not unlike that of people in banana republics, which is why industrious Russians who have no ties to the oligarchs leave Russia for the US or some other country.
 
I wouldn't believe the Ukrainian number. I put it somewhere around half of it, so around 7000 KIA, close to the recent American estimate. Total casualties would be around 2-4 times of that, still not exactly a good look for the Russian
From what Ukrainian military themselves said, they count by the vehicles. As in, they count the amount of armor and trucks destroyed, how much personnel each is supposed to have, and put them under KIA.
Too wishful thinking. This is 2022, medical tech and knowledge have advanced quite enough to make death rate lower than previous wars in history. This is even more true when since both combatants are European countries with modern infrastructure and techs, and not some backwater shithole countries
Wishful thinking is assuming Russian soldiers would get the help they need. Some were already put down by their buddies instead of treatment.
 
From what Ukrainian military themselves said, they count by the vehicles. As in, they count the amount of armor and trucks destroyed, how much personnel each is supposed to have, and put them under KIA.

Wishful thinking is assuming Russian soldiers will get the help they need. Some where already put down by their buddies instead of treatment.
Half is probably more accurate then. APC's, helicopters, and the like won't be fully crewed more often than not. A squad that's down one or two guys is still combat-effective, and it takes time for replacements to integrate with the survivors to the point they don't degrade squad functioning, and that is of course not mentioning any carriers that weren't loaded.
Too wishful thinking. This is 2022, medical tech and knowledge have advanced quite enough to make death rate lower than previous wars in history. This is even more true when since both combatants are European countries with modern infrastructure and techs, and not some backwater shithole countries
Bold of you to assume Russia is a modern country with modern infrastructure, modern technology, and modern medical capabilities.
 
Too wishful thinking. This is 2022, medical tech and knowledge have advanced quite enough to make death rate lower than previous wars in history. This is even more true when since both combatants are European countries with modern infrastructure and techs, and not some backwater shithole countries


Like others have already remarked, it's bold to assume that Russian army would have any better medical equipment than their public civilian side. I'm guessing that morphine, vodka and bone-saws are about the height of their field medicine. And actually having morphine when needed is probably too optimistic(It was sold and/or shot up by the company medic two weeks ago).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back