Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Rezza]

They did lots of reckless funding moves to get where they are now that will fuck them eventually. But that doesn't change the fact that the USA can't build a microwave oven let alone a F35 with out some part of the supply chain going though Chan. The world locking out Russia's raw material exports just cemented that fact forever.

My schizo theory is China is going to start making bold moves to grow CIPS and make the petroyuan a real thing. Getting the Yuan to reserve currency status so they can mimic the US Fed and just print their way out of trouble.
I'll take my big red X on this but I think it is their long term goal and plan to fix the bubble.

They have been forced to scale back on the regulations intended to deflate their city bubbles. China's economy is fucked, and we're going to see its implosion soon

 

[hooboy]

According to a Russian press report, after 1 month of war Russias casualties are as follows.

Wounded: 16,153
Killed" 9,861

There should be a lot more wounded if 10,000 are already dead; 10,000 dead would likely mean roughly 30,000 - 50,000 wounded, no?

Report is probably incorrect anyway lol

 

[Ow The Edge]

They're on the brink of demographic implosion thanks to decades of the One Child Policy, which was in turn caused by the famines caused by the "Great Leap Forward".

They just had to introduce a three-child policy in the last decade, just to get their birth rates back up to famine levels.

Correction: they introduced the three-child policy in a failed attempt to raise their birth rates to famine levels. Even if you believe their own doctored statistics (you shouldn't), their 2020 tfr was a measly 1.3. And that's after spending several extra weeks massaging the data.

 

[hooboy]

Correction: they introduced the three-child policy in a failed attempt to raise their birth rates to famine levels. Even if you believe their own doctored statistics (you shouldn't), their 2020 tfr was a measly 1.3. And that's after spending several extra weeks massaging the data.

does 3 child policy also mean state sponsored free gf programs?

 

[Rezza]

Correction: they introduced the three-child policy in a failed attempt to raise their birth rates to famine levels. Even if you believe their own doctored statistics (you shouldn't), their 2020 tfr was a measly 1.3. And that's after spending several extra weeks massaging the data.

I'm not surprised if the actual number is 1.1 or even just 1.0, and that's me being optimistic the chinks won't manipulated their number that much. If its actually worse than that, then China is fucked beyond anything imaginable

 

[Jump]

According to a Russian press report, after 1 month of war Russias casualties are as follows.

Wounded: 16,153
Killed" 9,861

There should be a lot more wounded if 10,000 are already dead; 10,000 dead would likely mean roughly 30,000 - 50,000 wounded, no?

Report is probably incorrect anyway lol

I don't see those numbers on the page they showed. But I can't really post their potato quality image in to google translate.

Maybe the Ghost of Kiev has a copy he can post for us.

 

[Ow The Edge]

I'm not surprised if the actual number is 1.1 or even just 1.0, and that's me being optimistic the chinks won't manipulated their number that much. If its actually worse than that, then China is fucked beyond anything imaginable

The CCP decided their citizens needed to imitate the retarded panda bears for whatever reason, now they can't pull them out of it. It wouldn't surprise me at all to learn that they were at South Korean levels of tfr.

I'm wondering what are the odds on population implosion vs. those of state-sponsored rape camps.

 

[Mr Bunny]

does 3 child policy also mean state sponsored free gf programs?

Tfw when you didn't get your state-funded Asian GF because China lies.

 

[Narcotics]

There should be a lot more wounded if 10,000 are already dead; 10,000 dead would likely mean roughly 30,000 - 50,000 wounded, no?

Report is probably incorrect anyway lol

I personally do not believe any troops or equipment stadistics from either side, both groups will tinker with the numbers to fit their own narrative.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

this video shows you the aftermath of one encounter between TDF and a russian column in kherson early in the war:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qArC01rONkA

Want to know how that happens?

Note how every meat pile in that video is humped up against a tree, and now watch these guys:

 

[hooboy]

don't see those numbers on the page they showed. But I can't really post their potato quality image in to google translate.

it was posted only briefly, it’s since been taken down.

 

[No Batty Boys in Jamaica]

I don't get up and go to work because working brings my heart pure joy. I go to work because I get paid, and then I can go to shop and buy some shit like food or something. When I lose the job, I don't buy shit. When enough people lose their jobs, people doesn't buy wares, enterprises goes bankrupt. Enterprises going bankrupt, mean that they stop producing all the things people want to buy. Like soldiers, who would like to have something more in life than bread and vodka. At some point of crisis, it is not only difficult to support soldiers with their "wants", but also with their "needs". All of which impacts their effectiveness and possibilities of continuing operations.

Add to that internal disapproval. Predicted inflation is 20%, predicted gdp drop is 10%, so roughly average russian will consume 1/3 less that before war. Do you think that they will be able to push that all on "the rotten west"? At some point people are angry, no matter if Putin tells them that's because of USA or not. You will need extra forces to keep peace internally. Wich turns into additional expenses.

God it must suck to be a Russian soldier in Ukraine. Having to fight people who aren't that different from you, using shitty equipment, getting paid in worthless money. Traditionally when an army doesn't get paid in real money, the solution is to plunder. But grunts aren't being allowed to plunder that much for various reasons, ranging from bad optics to higher-ups wanting it for themselves. Even if they could run wild, it's not like they're going to find a chest of booty lying around. Maybe some low-shelf Rolexes and smartphones, if they're lucky. Nothing you can retire off of.
I can definitely believe the mass desertions and surrenders. Even if they win, they're going to be treated like shit when the war is over, similar to veterans of Afghanistan and Chechnya. Not like the WW2 vets who managed to not get killed, wounded, or gulag'd. The Ukraine War veterans are going to be krokodil addicts in a decade.

Putin is winning, but the people actually fighting the war are losing badly. I won't be surprised if we see a large scale mutiny. Though it would not be the first mutiny in Russian military history, and would not change the outcome of the war.

If chemical weapons are deployed, the Russians are going to get Ukraine War Syndrome. The antidotes to nerve agents aren't exactly harmless, and it only takes a trace exposure to VX/Sarin/Novichok to end up having migraines, intestinal problems, and difficult-to-describe neurologic symptoms for a lifetime.

 

[quaawaa]

According to a Russian press report, after 1 month of war Russias casualties are as follows.

Wounded: 16,153
Killed" 9,861

This was covered yesterday. They claimed they were hacked and those numbers are fake.

 

[Autopsy]

They have been forced to scale back on the regulations intended to deflate their city bubbles. China's economy is fucked, and we're going to see its implosion soon

I wouldn't count on an implosion, someone has to facilitate the bust. If no one is present to call collect, they can delay and do easing indefinitely. It won't be as efficient at obscuring costs to the consumer as quantitative easing, but China can afford unhappy Chinamen even if they can't afford unhappy investors and trade partners, so they will just foist off the costs at home. The only threat would be an audit catching out
China's policy in COVID has been fantastic for keeping their industries open with little concern for pesky things like "muh freedoms," and the US is both too distracted and domestic to stage an audit right now, so Chinese productivity is literally all that matters. I have no doubt that constant shutdowns are hurting the Chinese domestic market, but they can, and do, cook stocks with party money as much as they please already, so as long as the bluff stays, they're fine. It is ultimately better this way globally if you care about cheap goods. If you don't, it'd still be better to wait until China commits to something publicly embarrassing or enraging for propaganda purposes, to redirect consumers' frustrations as the markets adjust.
The threat of exactly this is likely a major contributor to China's current neutrality in the ongoing war despite initial vague support.

Trump, despite all the domestic controversy, was a very foreign policy-focused president. Biden is now on the back of four? five? major international controversies in his presidency so-far, and he rant on a domestic agenda. I would be amazed if he'd take on the role of popping the China bubble, ON TOP OF oil skyrocketing, getting out of a war in a costly way, getting involved with a costly war, preexisting supply chain issues, etc.
Any one of these would normally be a presidency ender alone, regardless if he's to blame for any of these problems directly. There's decent arguments to be made for his contributing to all of those, so I would anticipate Republicans driving the nail in, and that's a legitimate threat any momentum he wanted to build off his first term. The fact that Biden's team started running ads in the middle of his presidency after making fun of Trump for it, and he used the State of the Union to shill, is surely "coincidental."

The CCP decided their citizens needed to imitate the retarded panda bears for whatever reason, now they can't pull them out of it. It wouldn't surprise me at all to learn that they were at South Korean levels of tfr.

I'm wondering what are the odds on population implosion vs. those of state-sponsored rape camps.

Demographic* Implosion is inevitable, no country on the planet has solved this problem. China is extra handicapped because, like for the Japanese, mass immigration is dirty and would be considered capitulation. Importing whites to fix the birthrate would be seen as another humiliation, the kind of Asians who would want to go to China are the ones who China doesn't want, and blacks are currently heavily repressed and transient, large permanent populations of blacks or Indians/Pakis in China would cause uproar.
I know it's a joke, but state-sponsored rape camps don't solve every step after the boning, which is expensive and debilitating for 1-2 people per family minimum or a few dozen million young people collectively, depending on how you organize the social safety net.
The economic war in Moscow is also demonstrating in real time what such horrific PR allows your enemy to do with minimal repercussions in real time. It's still going to take a while to shake out how resilient the West's economic warfare engine is long-term, but there's a lot of countries that would absolutely take advantage of multinationals' outrage to nip at China's hamstrings.

Edit:

God it must suck to be a Russian soldier in Ukraine. Having to fight people who aren't that different from you, using shitty equipment, getting paid in worthless money. Traditionally when an army doesn't get paid in real money, the solution is to plunder. But grunts aren't being allowed to plunder that much for various reasons, ranging from bad optics to higher-ups wanting it for themselves. Even if they could run wild, it's not like they're going to find a chest of booty lying around. Maybe some low-shelf Rolexes and smartphones, if they're lucky. Nothing you can retire off of.

Keep in mind that most of the Ukrainians they're "liberating" are cousins, former friends, former co-workers, etc., and that despite shitty Pravda memes about muh Russian language oppression and how everyone wanted to secede, most of the people the Russian Guard is having to shoot at speak the same language. It's much harder to slaughter someone who can express their humanity at you directly instead of a monkey yelling desert gibberish, or worse: French, which sometimes drives even civilians to murder.

 

[Rezza]

The CCP decided their citizens needed to imitate the retarded panda bears for whatever reason, now they can't pull them out of it. It wouldn't surprise me at all to learn that they were at South Korean levels of tfr.

I'm wondering what are the odds on population implosion vs. those of state-sponsored rape camps.

At least Korean doesn't have another thing that makes China's situation worse, the disproportionate ratio of male-female

 

[JosephStalin]

Correction: they introduced the three-child policy in a failed attempt to raise their birth rates to famine levels. Even if you believe their own doctored statistics (you shouldn't), their 2020 tfr was a measly 1.3. And that's after spending several extra weeks massaging the data.

Chinese families overall don't want more than one kid, max. Just too expensive. Farm families likely would want the three kids, more helpers on the farm, more to provide for parents in their old age.

@Feline Supremacist - the zoomers can cry all they like, but should we get into a situation that requires a draft, the drill sergeants will make sure the zoomers STFU and train, unless they want a bad-paper discharge. The time for fucking around with feelings will be long over.

 

[Finnegan the Supershark]

They have been forced to scale back on the regulations intended to deflate their city bubbles. China's economy is fucked, and we're going to see its implosion soon

People say this but I don't get it. Even if the numbers in the computer get spooky they'll still have the 24,000 miles of high speed trains, thousands of brand new bridges, vast hydroelectric dams, subway systems, and airports that they built instead of invading Iraq.

 

[mr.moon1488]

Footage of dead Ukrainian soldiers in the Kiev region (link).

Spoiler: death

View attachment 3097988

Also, just found out that @MapsUkraine got suspended. It's a pro-Rus Twitter account just like ASBMilitary. Let this be another reminder to archive everything.

View attachment 3098003

Bit surprised Russian soldiers aren't taking the plates and plate carries more. Those things sell for a good bit online.

They are so rich they don't have to feel any of the consequences of their stupidity.


Anyway, here is a video of humanitarian aid from Russia to the residents of Mariupol. Hugs from crying babuska are included.
View attachment 3097779

Was the city already taken or only some of its parts?

My understanding is that they basically have some Ukie hold-outs in a few areas but for the most part, the city is taken. I know Russian vehicles have been spotted pretty deep into the city so this is more than likely true. If I were to get a time estimation as to how long it would be before the entire city is taken, I'd say about a week unless you see a lot of Ukies surrendering.

 

[Übertroon]

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

I think all the hot "Russia is losing" takes are predicated on the France 1940/Iraq 2003 operational strategic model where you capture the enemy capital and this results in the enemy army surrendering wholesale and thus organised resistance ending, so Russian success would be as per France/Iraq the rapid gain of territory culminating in the capture of the capital

Mine is not, but then again my take is less "Russia is losing" and more "Ukraine is not winning, yet". I think that the initial plan was a budget Shock and Awe; hit the Ukrainians everywhere, break communications, get into Kiev at the very least, and generally overwhelm the ground forces and command structure to compel them to just give up. I lean against the meat grinder idea, because they don't have the numerical superiority for it, and I've spent this war operating on the assumption that the people making decisions aren't idiots. A war of maneuver seems to be their only viable option at this point, but the lines are too static to indicate that they are achieving any success in this endeavor.