Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Meat Target]

The good news for Ukraine is that we're a month in and the only major city the Russians captured was Kherson which was near the beginning of the war, they will capture Mariupol but who knows when that will actually fall.

The best thing for Ukraine to do is to keep Russian momentum at a minimum until Russia decides it's had enough and decides it will go with most of it's public demands and try to forget the quiet goal which was the puppet or annexation of Ukraine or large parts of it.

There's also the issue of Western intelligence and its media mouthpieces lying more than Todd Howard. I know that doesn't mean Russia is telling the truth, but Russia is actively doing while the West is impotently talking.

Don't listen to what anyone involved says; rather, watch what they do.

 

[NevskyProspekt]

The Patriarch of Constantinople doesn't decide what the Patriarch of Russia or of Bulgaria does. The Orthodox don't have a sole Patriarch, like the Roman Pope.

I'm well aware of that - first among equals =/= supremacy. It doesn't change the fact that the lifting of the mutual excommunications was a very, very significant event, even from a mere historical standpoint.

There is still however a chasm larger than anything else seen in history. Hesychasm is still highly controversial within Catholicism(Though it could be argued that the Catholics accepted it in the union of Brest). There is also the issue of the 3 heretical councils known as Trent, Vatican I, Vatican II. All cannons of these council would need to be evaluated at a new giant ecumenical council and toss out the ones that are found unorthodox. And from a quick look at my copy of the Byzantine lists (Lists over Latin(Catholic) heresies, Danish edition 2014) there are still around 174 outstanding issues theologically and practically that hinders union.

Like I said, there are many hurtles that must be overcome before formal reunion can happen, and it probably won't happen within our lifetimes, or even in the next several generations. However, every little step counts.

 

[Starscreams Cape]

ppbbbttt

Kino video of what Volnovakha looks like atm (link)

View attachment 3100145

Guy in Mariupol checks out the remains of a bus (link)

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Russians put the Bastion ballistic missile system to use (link)

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UAV footage of Mariupol today (link)

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BONUS: Ukie forces show off their German MG-3 Machine gun.

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I think after seeing the footage of Mariupol we can finally dispense with the absurd notion that the reason the invasion is going so slowly for Russia is because they're being super duper careful about civilian casualties.

 

[Sexual Chocolate]

Belarus is apparently participating in the war already somehow.

There are only two types of country: Belarus, and Soon To Be Conquests of Belarus.

Come with President Lukashenko if you want to live

 

[kim foxx]

luka is definitely in the pantheon of based presidents next to assad

 

[Borscht]

luka is definitely in the pantheon of based presidents next to assad

Spoiler: No he's not.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

Hey look, it's that international community we keep hearing so much about. Seems they're waving goodbye to the petrodollar.

 

[No. 7 cat]

https://youtu.be/I1_t2VisYnY

Perun covers drones in this conflict notably how 'Turkish junk' turned expensive RU tanks and AA systems into scorched junk. The Turkish TB-2 has emerged as a star. He notes how Ukrainian drones were extensively jammed during the Donbass conflict. He notes the 'long tail' cost benefit of not losing flesh and blood soldiers. Cannot embed with the phone.

Hey look, it's that international community we keep hearing so much about. Seems they're waving goodbye to the petrodollar.
View attachment 3100204

The petrodollar is still far more viable than the rickety BRICs. The Saudis are militarily incompetent to a stunning degree, so the Crown Prince throwing shade on Biden either doesn't matter, or will be something KSA severely regrets.

 

[DumbDude42]

Hey look, it's that international community we keep hearing so much about. Seems they're waving goodbye to the petrodollar.
View attachment 3100204

brics makes no sense to me
well the ric part makes sense, they're the three big players in asia, but brazil and south africa are so far away and so irrelevant, what is the point of them being there?

 

[Borscht]

brics makes no sense to me
well the ric part makes sense, they're the three big players in asia, but brazil and south africa are so far away and so irrelevant, what is the point of them being there?

To make the acronym prettier. "When you see it, you will be shitting BRICS".

 

[Wy4M]

My (limited) understanding is that keeping rouble weak was excellent for a resource-export based economy with all transactions paid in foreign currency, since you could literally afford more rouble bang for an american buck. Now that foreign currency became useless (nobody's selling anything to Russia), there is no reason to keep doing this, so might as well add more inflation to the already overheating US economy. It is yet another salvo fired in the hybrid war with long-term consequences that are impossible to predict because there have been no such precedent.

It's not a black swan, it's an entire fucking swan lake.

View attachment 3100060



Thank God.

And since Russia doesn't have to import its oil, gas, steel they can keep their economy going for a big part.

Imagine that you're living in a country that needs to import its oil in order to survive; converted to USD you first had to pay 100USD for a barrel of oil but after the IMF/US crashed your currency it became 5000, 10000 or even more for 1 barrel.
Since most countries only have oil reserves for just a couple of weeks it would mean that your country will be wrecked and bankrupt in just 2 or 3 months.
It's childishly simple what the US does but very effective.

 

[No. 7 cat]

Relations between the two aren't nearly as cold as they used to be. The mutual excommunications that officially started the whole schism where lifted in 1965 by Pope St. Paul VI and Patriarch Athenagoras I. The Orthodox have valid sacraments which can be received by Catholics, and valid Apostolic Succession. Remember, we're not working with ordinary human time scales here. These things take centuries to develop. Sure, we likely won't see reconciliation in our lifetimes, but who knows (other than Our Lord Himself) what might happen centuries into the future. Of course there are still many, many stumbling blocks that must be overcome.

If we manage to last that long.

A side note is the Consecration was cleared by Francis with the Orthodox in both countries after this was requested by the tiny contingent of Latin Ukranian bishops.

I would note regarding Russian steel that they should hope it's improved over the stuff that made my Dad's FIAT Miafiore rust (a Soviet Italian deal and the town when Avtopaz made or makes the once FIAT based Ladas is Togliatti after the Italian Communist leader). Also some steel grades are not needed too often or in a large quantity. A local manufacturing capability need not cover everything in normal times. It remains to be seen how Russia will cope with these sudden sanctions. Will Bulgarians or others help bust sanctions?

RU crude is also high cost. Low 80s oil prices ravaged the Soviet Union as their oil ceased being too economic. It is now, perhaps, but their market is so distorted. Allah and / or ancient geology blessed KSA with a lot of cheap to refine light crude, plus other grades.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

brics makes no sense to me
well the ric part makes sense, they're the three big players in asia, but brazil and south africa are so far away and so irrelevant, what is the point of them being there?

Why not? Brazil is a big player in Latin America and South Africa is a big player in, well, Africa. They got most of the planet covered, except for the crap anglo parts.

Oh yeah. Enemy combatant trying to flee Mariupol in women's clothing. He doesn't make a very convincing transformer.

 

[DumbDude42]

the Crown Prince throwing shade on Biden either doesn't matter, or will be something KSA severely regrets.

what would happen to KSA if america were to stop supplying and training their military? my guess is they would start losing all their proxy wars and conflicts to iran, eventually resulting in iranian hegemony over the middle east.

 

[kuuu]

Two vids from Kherson Oblast'.
Some smart guy is burning Russian humanitarian aid.

SBU blockpost after Russian artillery shelling. Operator says that they had a case of ammunition blow out.

---

There were videos of this infernal thing doing work sometime ago.
Here's supposedly the aftermath, a burned down Ukrainian defense position:

Spoiler: NSFW

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

what would happen to KSA if america were to stop supplying and training their military? my guess is they would start losing all their proxy wars and conflicts to iran, eventually resulting in iranian hegemony over the middle east.

They'd get friendlier with Israel and nearby Arab nations to balance out the threat from Iran.

Edit: Some relevant background info.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/12/bennett-sketches-path-israeli-saudi-normalization

 

[White_N]

View attachment 3100113

There is no war, only frogs.

 

[Wy4M]

Why not? Brazil is a big player in Latin America and South Africa is a big player in, well, Africa. They got most of the planet covered, except for the crap anglo parts.

Oh yeah. Enemy combatant trying to flee Mariupol in women's clothing. He doesn't make a very convincing transformer.
View attachment 3100242

I think he's yelling ZA SCOOOOOOO?

Edit - it's ZA SHTOOOOOOO or ZA ZSHTOOOOOOO

 

[Cold Root Beer]

brics makes no sense to me
well the ric part makes sense, they're the three big players in asia, but brazil and south africa are so far away and so irrelevant, what is the point of them being there?

>Brazil
>Far away

Haha, you wish. Guess where you're going now, buddy?

 

[Kane Lives]

They'd get friendlier with Israel and nearby Arab nations to balance out the threat from Iran.

Agreed. The KSA isnt bereft of regional allies yet. Egypt and most of the surrounding Sunni states are still friendly. They would, however, need to stop their misadventures in Yemen or risk having their now- irreplaceable American equipment from being blown.