War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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I find it hard to believe that the military industrial complex isnt doing its best to keep peace talks off the table

Not too hard, pretty much every NLAW made by Thales for the UK military is to be sent out to Ukraine but considering their hilariously cheap price tag (£20k a pop) compared to Javelins they've been doing the lions share of the actual work. So having to spam a load more of them, while keeping a bunch of Thales employees in jobs is hardly a bad thing.
 
Russia scales back its military ambitions but the war in Ukraine is far from over (archive)

Friday’s announcement that Putin’s forces were limiting operations to the Donbas and their mission was nearly complete is merely a shift in emphasis

One month after Russian president Vladimir Putin asserted that Ukraine should be liberated from the historical mistake of its independence, the Russian defence ministry has announced that Russia’s war aims were limited to the Donbas region, and were nearing completion.

This climbdown is undoubtedly laying the groundwork for selling the operation as a success to the Russian public despite an abysmal military combat performance. But that does not mean a rapid end to the war.

Having failed in its initial attempts to seize several Ukrainian cities, and with its logistics in disarray, Russia has been forced to focus on one target at a time. Mariupol is the current main effort.

Once that port city falls, Kharkiv is likely to be the next target, followed by an attempt to push north along the Dnieper River to cut off Ukrainian forces in the Donbas. If the Russians can hold Kherson, this would pave the way for a Russia-initiated ceasefire, with a link created between the Donbas and Crimea, and Russian propaganda claiming to have averted a fictional Ukrainian genocide against ethnic Russians in the Donbas.

Even these more limited aims promise fierce fighting. Kharkiv – close to the Russian border – has already been subjected to heavy bombardment, whose intensity is likely to increase, and Ukraine has few options for preventing it.

On the other hand, the fight northwards along the Dnieper will probably be met with stiff resistance, with continuing western arms supplies leading to heavy attrition among Russian armour. The outcome of this fighting is far from inevitable.

It would be a serious error to expect the war to end at this point, however, even if local ceasefires and expanded negotiations suggest diplomacy may prevail. This is for three reasons.

First, Putin’s view of Kyiv – as rightfully Russian territory – will not have changed. Just as the Russian military continually sought to destabilise Ukraine and kill its soldiers for the eight years between the annexation of Crimea and this year’s campaign, negotiations will not halt Russian aggression but merely shift its intensity and emphasis.

Second, precisely because Russia is setting itself up to annex more Ukrainian territory so it cab claim victory at home, western sanctions are not going away. They will persist. The result is that Putin is rapidly losing all levers of influence in the west other than the application or threat of force. In this context, any lull in the fighting is likely to see the Russians seek to correct defects in their campaign plan, to regroup and to threaten a future campaign against Kyiv.

The third reason why Russia’s new declared aims do not suggest an imminent end to hostilities is that, precisely because of the expectations of the first two points, Ukraine will not wish to see a ceasefire allow Russia to dig in along a new “line of contact”. This will amount to it taking the country bite by bite. Ukraine will seek to strengthen Kharkiv and try to prevent its encirclement, spoiling the staging area for Russia’s second objective after Mariupol.

Ultimately, Kyiv will not feel secure until Putin is removed from power or the Russian army is broken, and to that end will seek to continue to kill Russian soldiers on Ukrainian soil, for as long as possible.

Moreover, a general collapse in Russian forces is anticipated to offer the best chance for Ukraine to retake what was lost in 2014 and 2015. Having pulled Russia’s hand into a mangle, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has no intention of letting Russia take it out. Even if he wanted to, the Ukrainian government could do little to stop insurgency by Ukrainians in the occupied territories.

For Ukraine’s international partners, these dynamics pose some difficult questions. Those seeking off-ramps may in fact be pressuring Ukraine to surrender longer-term advantages to Moscow. For Ukraine, Russia’s curtailed objectives offer the space for more maximalist ambitions. The question is whether the west shares them.

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Big if true (archive)
In a possible shift on a plan to transfer Soviet-era fighter jets from Poland to Kyiv to boost Ukraine’s firepower in the skies - rejected earlier this month by the Pentagon as too not “tenable” - Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, says the US no longer objects, according to AFP.

“As far as we can conclude, the ball is now on the Polish side,” Kuleba said in written comments to the newswire after a meeting with US president Joe Biden in Warsaw.

Biden, who was winding up a whirlwind visit to Poland after holding a series of urgent summits in Brussels with Western allies, met both Kuleba and Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov in an emphatic show of support for Kyiv.

Both ministers had made a rare trip out of Ukraine for the face-to-face talks, in a possible sign of growing confidence in their battle against Russian forces.
 
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So I wrote before about Poland raising their army from 100k to 300k.

Yesterday there were news that Poles are forming territorial defense/ homeguards, but I could not find anything to this day in the press.

Yesterday Poland raised the question of Koninsberg/Kaliningrad and this is something that resonanted enough that Russian sources picked it up


Basically, Poland says those are occupied Polish land since 1945 .... View attachment 3110525

Poland is member of NATO ... and just raised a question about territorial dispute ...

For kids who are not into geography, it's a really really interesting piece of land, currently Russian territory without a landbridge to it. In fact a land bridge to it would have to cut through two NATO countries:

View attachment 3110539

This is some interesting shit right here, def something to watch. I posted about Azeris pushing into Armenian territory held by Russian peacekeeping troops. Now on the north, the Kaliningrad is getting more attention, literally, you got to worry about fronts really far away from each other, meanwhile you are trying to send any troops to Ukraine ...
Yeah, I figured if the Poles did anything they'd start with Kaliningrad. And the US being spoilsports would make them hand it back to the Germans as Ostpreussen as compensation for the Poles chewing off a massive part of Germany at the end of WW2.
Not too hard, pretty much every NLAW made by Thales for the UK military is to be sent out to Ukraine but considering their hilariously cheap price tag (£20k a pop) compared to Javelins they've been doing the lions share of the actual work. So having to spam a load more of them, while keeping a bunch of Thales employees in jobs is hardly a bad thing.
Yeah, Javelin is... well, its only cost-effective if you're the US at about 10x that per missile. It is however a far more offensive weapon with the latest versions having a range of 4 kilometers, NLAW just 800m or so. I don't doubt NLAW is doing the bulk of the work given the current defensive posture of Ukraine, but when its time to advance I'm pretty sure its Javelin that's going to be leading the way.

For those curious as to why Javelin is 10x the cost, its because unlike NLAW it has an integrated sensor and guidance suite, NLAW merely inertial guidance along a pre-programmed trajectory. Javelin can do everything TOW can and then some with its top attack mode and self-homing capabilities, but with just a two-man team instead of well...
1648346960663.png

That.
 
From the news I've managed to gather, Azerbaijan is pissed that Armenian soldiers are still stationed in NK despite the ceasefire agreement outlining that all Armenian military personnel have to leave and Russians have been covering Armenian asses. So now that the Russians are preoccupied, Azerbaijan is taking the initiative to take out the Armenian military positions themselves. I would've figured it was a propaganda excuse but apparently even Armenian media made mention of Azerbaijan attacking military installations so it looks like they were right and Armenian military is still sitting there.
 
Yeah, I figured if the Poles did anything they'd start with Kaliningrad. And the US being spoilsports would make them hand it back to the Germans as Ostpreussen as compensation for the Poles chewing off a massive part of Germany at the end of WW2.
The time to take Kaliningrad without U.S. or Russian opposition was during the breakup of the USSR. When the biggest problem was how to ethnic cleanse the Russians relocated there after WWII without anyone complaining.
For those curious as to why Javelin is 10x the cost, its because unlike NLAW it has an integrated sensor and guidance suite, NLAW merely inertial guidance along a pre-programmed trajectory. Javelin can do everything TOW can and then some with its top attack mode and self-homing capabilities, but with just a two-man team instead of well.
Javelins are only really competitive to TOWs in that they're man portable.
 
The time to take Kaliningrad without U.S. or Russian opposition was during the breakup of the USSR. When the biggest problem was how to ethnic cleanse the Russians relocated there after WWII without anyone complaining.

Javelins are only really competitive to TOWs in that they're man portable.
Well, now seems like the new best time, especially since with all the anti-Russian shit flying around pretty sure nobody would ask too many questions if every single Russian there just mysteriously disappeared once the Poles moved in.

As to the second part... no duh. There's a massive advantage all the way down in having the reach and firepower of a wire-guided, fixed-location tripod weapon on something two guys can carry around on shoulder slings as opposed to something that needs to be broken down and put in the back of a vehicle. You've taken something that used to be largely defensive in nature as an emplaced weapon and turned it into an offensive one that can be carried and employed directly as part of the advancing infantry forces. You might as well say "Well, the Lewis gun is really only competitive to the Maxim in that its man portable".
 
Well, now seems like the new best time, especially since with all the anti-Russian shit flying around pretty sure nobody would ask too many questions if every single Russian there just mysteriously disappeared once the Poles moved in.
Not a good time now as had Russia relocated a good portion of their Baltic Fleet there and nuclear assets over there back in the early 90ies.
As to the second part... no duh. There's a massive advantage all the way down in having the reach and firepower of a wire-guided, fixed-location tripod weapon on something two guys can carry around on shoulder slings as opposed to something that needs to be broken down and put in the back of a vehicle.
TOWs are no longer wired-guided as from 2012 it been made wireless guided.
 
View attachment 3111888
If this is actually true than it might be the single most peak Russian thing imaginable. Also imagine being the general who was in charge of that depot, slowly watching the active service shit getting whittled down and knowing soon they're gonna come looking to use the shit you've been systematically screwing.
This is Ukrainian intelligence reporting to the general public so I don't trust it just on the grounds that both sides have a vested interest in lying about what's happening. But if it is true, that basically means the Russian army is fucked. All out of tanks, all out of trucks and all out of spare parts.

I want to believe it, but I don't. Not until it's verified by a third party, and even then who is to say who is trustworthy and who is not?
 
This is Ukrainian intelligence reporting to the general public so I don't trust it just on the grounds that both sides have a vested interest in lying about what's happening. But if it is true, that basically means the Russian army is fucked. All out of tanks, all out of trucks and all out of spare parts.

I want to believe it, but I don't. Not until it's verified by a third party, and even then who is to say who is trustworthy and who is not?
Russia running out of spare parts is not that far-fetched of an idea since most of their machineries and parts, including for military, are actually imported. They can cannibalize the other reserves vehicles, but that's assuming they still have some left that didn't fell prey to corruption and embezzlement

Reminder, this is just for the spare parts
 
Considering how the corruption in Russia reached peak levels, I believe the reports. It coincides with what we've already seen and heard: Ukrainians finding expired rations and 30-year-old shells inside Russian tanks, Russian vehicles breaking down, they really just left these things to rot in the shelves until the war began, didn't they?
When you put a vehicle into long term storage, you're supposed to drain all the fluids and take the whole vehicle apart to keep the parts from getting clogged from aging fluids like oil and brake fluid. Leaving a vehicle in long term storage fully assembled like that is worse than driving the shit out of it because the fluids just ossify & ruin the parts they're sitting in.

Who wants to bet they just left them sitting on a repurposed airstrip for years, never replacing the fluids the same way they left the trucks out in the open for the tires to rot in the sun?
 
When you put a vehicle into long term storage, you're supposed to drain all the fluids and take the whole vehicle apart to keep the parts from getting clogged from aging fluids like oil and brake fluid. Leaving a vehicle in long term storage fully assembled like that is worse than driving the shit out of it because the fluids just ossify & ruin the parts they're sitting in.

Who wants to bet they just left them sitting on a repurposed airstrip for years, never replacing the fluids the same way they left the trucks out in the open for the tires to rot in the sun?
In Russia you're supposed to take the entire vehicle, as is, and put in a massive container of cosmoline. This will preserve it for millennia.
 
The mighty Russian army is about to scrape the bottom beneath the barrel
View attachment 3113639
By the 11th of April Army Commissaries of Bryan, Kursk and Belgorod have to provide a list of new conscripts eligible for planned mobilization for the 2022 fiscal year, ready to be deployed to the area of "The special military operation in Ukraine" :story:
Wait, this is real? Where do you get this? This is big if true, that means Putin is willing to sacrifice his reputation to the Russian people to win this war
 
Yeah, I figured if the Poles did anything they'd start with Kaliningrad. And the US being spoilsports would make them hand it back to the Germans as Ostpreussen as compensation for the Poles chewing off a massive part of Germany at the end of WW2.

Yeah, Javelin is... well, its only cost-effective if you're the US at about 10x that per missile. It is however a far more offensive weapon with the latest versions having a range of 4 kilometers, NLAW just 800m or so. I don't doubt NLAW is doing the bulk of the work given the current defensive posture of Ukraine, but when its time to advance I'm pretty sure its Javelin that's going to be leading the way.

For those curious as to why Javelin is 10x the cost, its because unlike NLAW it has an integrated sensor and guidance suite, NLAW merely inertial guidance along a pre-programmed trajectory. Javelin can do everything TOW can and then some with its top attack mode and self-homing capabilities, but with just a two-man team instead of well...
View attachment 3113067
That.
People forget that Ukraine also has their own Stugna-P, which is nowhere near as advanced as Javelin, but much cheaper and with remote control function and huge range
 
Not a good time now as had Russia relocated a good portion of their Baltic Fleet there and nuclear assets over there back in the early 90ies.

TOWs are no longer wired-guided as from 2012 it been made wireless guided.
Its still a massive system that requires constant guidance from the user, is it not?
1648375919081.png

According to Wikipedia that's the latest E version. Not very mobile compared to Javelin, if I say so myself.
 
Wait, this is real? Where do you get this? This is big if true, that means Putin is willing to sacrifice his reputation to the Russian people to win this war
I wonder what all the people criticizing Ukraine for using a civilian militia will have to say about Putin throwing civilians at walls.
 
Sean Penn couldn't resist to post his grain of salt about Ukraine from what I saw on that article.
March 27, 2022

Sean Penn has a Ukraine tantrum and the Oscars better listen to him​

By Monica Showalter

Sean Penn is having a tantrum.
Tonight's the Oscars night and he wants Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky to take time out from his busy schedule to address Hollywood's Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences at its big red-carpet shindig, and the Academy won't let him.
He's going to hold his breath now, or well...
According to the Washington Post:
American filmmaker Sean Penn called for a boycott of the Oscars ceremony on Sunday if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky isn’t on the program, saying he would smelt his own awards in public if that turns out to be the case.
The actor and activist was on the ground last month in Ukraine filming a documentary on the Russian invasion. During a CNN appearance on Saturday, he responded to rumors of a possible virtual appearance by the former comedian turned president, with an ultimatum for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences: Approve Zelensky’s invitation or face a potential walkout.
“Now, it is my understanding that a decision has been made not to do it. … If the academy has elected not … to pursue the leadership in Ukraine, who are taking bullets and bombs for us, along with the Ukrainian children that they are trying to protect, then I think every single one of those people, and every bit of that decision, will have been the most obscene moment in all of Hollywood history,” he told CNN’s Jim Acosta.
Penn, who took home best actor awards for the films “Mystic River” (2003) and “Milk” (2008), called on people to boycott the ceremony in protest if Zelensky is not on the program, saying: “I will smelt [my awards] in public.”
Which is kind of disgusting. We don't even know if Zelensky wants to address these people, what with the Russian bombing campaign on and all. It looks as though Penn is volunteering him for the mother of all virtue-signaling.
Now, the idea isn't a totally bad one. Zelensky, after all, is an actor, and actor of the kind that Hollywood types like -- get a load of some of his acting feats here and here and here. (Warning: you can't unsee them).

Btw, I have a feeling then the Oscars ratings will be more lower than last year.
 

Ukrainian soldiers interrogate Russian Prisoners of War and then shoot them in the legs:​



Currently still up on Reddit, if you don't want to sign in to Youtube

With this new footage of Ukrainian soldiers beating Russian prisoners and shooting the unarmed, captive men, it will be interesting to see if we are allowed to see this in our mainstream media news coverage, and more importantly discuss it as a war crime, without it being memory holed out of our consciousness.

Based on the complete absence of this story on our Sunday Morning news shows, I suspect this will get the Hunter Biden laptop treatment. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if these videos are scrubbed from Youtube since it's showing the wrong thing.
 
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Ukrainian soldiers interrogate Russian Prisoners of War and then shoot them in the legs:​



Currently still up on Reddit, if you don't want to sign in to Youtube

With this new footage of Ukrainian soldiers beating Russian prisoners and shooting the unarmed, captive men, it will be interesting to see if we are allowed to see this in our mainstream media news coverage, and more importantly discuss it as a war crime, without it being memory holed out of our consciousness.

Based on the complete absence of this story on our Sunday Morning news shows, I suspect this will get the Hunter Biden laptop treatment. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if these videos are scrubbed from Youtube since it's showing the wrong thing.

Valuable war footage archived.
 
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