1. Russia haven't abandoned attacks on Kiv yet but continue fighting to hold their posts close to the city
2. Badly damaged units are withdrawing to Russia from other areas near to Kyiv and Cherniviv.
3. Russian high command have likely concluded they can't seize Kyiv or move artillery closer to the city center
4. Russian high command may have decided to stop trying to force units that have had devastating losses to continue hopeless offensive operatations.
6. Insteady they likely continue to feed new batallinos into the battle as they become available from elsewhere
7. The negotiators are likely trying to recast these necessary military decisions as concessions to facilitate peace, and they may be doing that to concearl the fact that they have accepted failure of that entire operation to capture Kyiv.
I.e. they are still keeping up a presence there, don't want to admit defeat and just withdraw but they are keeping it minimal as they have likely accepted they can never win Kyiv - as a military assessment.
They may attempt to take the whole of the Donetsk and Luhansk region (this would includ Mariupol). Mariupol is likely to fall within days - they have likey bisected or even trisected it so that the remaining fighters are in unconnected pockets now. But it's unclear how much htey have by way of fighters for their objectives in Donbas if that's their aim.
So that is beginning to shape up as a possible aim for Putin - to try to take all the Donbas reagion and to keep a token presence near Kyiv to keep the Ukrainians engaged there while they do their offensive in the East. They might or might not have enough soldiers for that, the ISW are unable to say if this is a realistic military aim. Much of the best Ukrainian soldiers are in the region near Donbas too. So it wouldn't be an easy fight.
But if Putin is stalling, then this might be why he is stalling??
QUOTE
The Russians have not yet abandoned their attacks on Kyiv, claims by Russian Defense Ministry officials notwithstanding. Russian forces continued fighting to hold their forwardmost positions on the eastern and western Kyiv outskirts even as badly damaged units withdrew to Russia from elsewhere on the Kyiv and Chernihiv axes. The Russian high command has likely concluded that it cannot seize Kyiv and may not be able to move artillery closer to the center of the city. It may have decided to stop its previous practices of forcing units that have already taken devastating losses to continue hopeless offensive operations and of feeding individual battalion tactical groups into the battle as they become available rather than concentrating them to achieve decisive effects. Russian officials are likely casting these decisions driven by military realities as overtures demonstrating Russia’s willingness to engage in serious ceasefire or peace negotiations, possibly to conceal the fact that they have accepted the failure of their efforts on the Kyiv axis.
,,,
Immediate items to watch
- Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol or force the city to capitulate within the coming days;
- Russian reinforcements may enable a renewed Russian offensive through Slovyansk to link up with Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast;
- Russian withdrawals from near Kyiv and Chernihiv will become significant if Russian troops begin to pull back from front-line positions around either city.
t.me
